The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

JaMarcus Shephard

Oregon State, 2026–nowOR2026now
5-2This season at Oregon State
5-2Career
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
See Oregon State’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

  • Last gameW 48-30 vs. Washington State Sat Oct 17
  • This season5-2 won 5 straight
  • On track for7-4 regular season
  • Nextat Fresno State Sat Oct 31 (no game this week)
  • Stature74th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 15% → 18% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Fresno State

No game this week · Sat Oct 31, 12 am ET USA Network · Fresno State is 4-3 · First meeting between Shephard and Matt Entz as head coaches · Oregon State’s chance to win: 66% (the site’s model)

5 stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 3 outlets

Fans are feeling good about Oregon State

Is Aquatic Entomology Worth it? Hey has anyone here taken aquatic entomology? I’m thinking of taking it next quarter since it won’t be offered again while I’m at OSU, but it’s going to make my schedule pretty rough so I wanted to know if it was a good class and worth it? I couldn’t find any info about it online or on rate my prof so I figured I’d ask here

Slight typo in your title. Not sure Memphis is who won that

A great win for the PAC-12, and therefore the world

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 8th of 138 per play. Defense: 30th.

Offense, per play8thOffense, points per trip inside the 402ndDefense, per play30thDefense, opponents' starting field position125thWorstBest
Offense, per play8th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 402nd of 138Defense, per play30th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position125th of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Oregon State. The other two rows are where Oregon State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Oct 31at Fresno State (4-3)USA Network66%
  2. Sat Nov 7vs. Texas State (3-3)The CW57%
  3. Sat Nov 14at Boise State (5-1)USA Network36%
  4. Sat Nov 21vs. Utah State (2-4)CBS Sports Network86%

Percent: Oregon State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Oregon State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

70th80th90thPreseason85thHouston L 20-33Houston L 20-33L 20-33Houston85thTexas Tech L 24-35Texas Tech L 24-35L 24-35Texas Tech85thMontana W 52-17Montana W 52-17W 52-17Montana86thUTEP W 33-7UTEP W 33-7W 33-7UTEP83rdColorado State W 56-26Colorado State W 56-26W 56-26Colorado State81stSan Diego State W 66-14San Diego State W 66-14W 66-14San Diego Sta…77thWashington State W 48-30Washington State W 48-30W 48-30Washington St…74thBye74th
  1. Oct 12–18W 48-30 vs. Washington State5 headlines · 51st of 138What JaMarcus Shephard said after Oregon State beat Washington State Yahoo Sports“Washington State Is Going To Bring Intensity This Weekend”JaMarcus Shephard, Oct 16
  2. Oct 5–11W 66-14 vs. San Diego State6 headlines · 53rd of 138JaMarcus Shephard: "These Kids are Putting Their Hearts into This Football Team" Yahoo Sports“These Kids are Putting Their Hearts into This Football Team”JaMarcus Shephard, Oct 9
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4W 56-26 at Colorado State3 headlines · 70th of 138What JaMarcus Shephard said after Oregon State drubbed Colorado State OregonLive
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 33-7 at UTEP8 headlines · 44th of 138JaMarcus Shephard’s Beavers Lead Nation in Passing Despite 1-2 Start FishDuck
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 52-17 vs. Montana3 headlines · 72nd of 138JaMarcus Shephard's first win as Oregon State coach was a statement OregonLive
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltL 24-35 vs. Texas Tech7 headlines · 54th of 138Oregon State coach JaMarcus Shephard speaks after Texas Tech loss Statesman Journal

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Oregon State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Oregon State

5 stories about him this week

Bye week. Next: Fresno State, Sat Oct 31

63rd of 100 FBS head coaches · from 3 outlets and r/CFB

Oct 17: 1Oct 18: 2Oct 19: 1Oct 20: 1W 48-30 vs Washington StateWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Oct 17: 1Oct 18: 2Oct 19: 1Oct 20: 1W 48-30 vs Washington StateWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

Oregon State Beavers Midseason Offensive Progress Report: The Aerial Explosion Under JaMarcus Shephard

On3 Oct 20 · 1 outlet

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes3 stories

101 stories about him this season

from 24 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 13Aug 8 to Aug 14: 9Aug 15 to Aug 21: 6Aug 22 to Aug 28: 7Aug 29 to Sep 4: 12Sep 5 to Sep 11: 13Sep 12 to Sep 18: 5Sep 19 to Sep 25: 10Sep 26 to Oct 2: 3Oct 3 to Oct 9: 7Oct 10 to Oct 16: 11Oct 17 to Oct 23: 5L 20-33 at HoustonLL 24-35 vs Texas TechLW 52-17 vs MontanaWW 33-7 at UTEPWW 56-26 at Colorado StateWW 66-14 vs San Diego StateWW 48-30 vs Washington StateWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 13
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 13Aug 8 to Aug 14: 9Aug 15 to Aug 21: 6Aug 22 to Aug 28: 7Aug 29 to Sep 4: 12Sep 5 to Sep 11: 13Sep 12 to Sep 18: 5Sep 19 to Sep 25: 10Sep 26 to Oct 2: 3Oct 3 to Oct 9: 7Oct 10 to Oct 16: 11Oct 17 to Oct 23: 5L 20-33 at HoustonLL 24-35 vs Texas TechLW 52-17 vs MontanaWW 33-7 at UTEPWW 56-26 at Colorado StateWW 66-14 vs San Diego StateWW 48-30 vs Washington StateWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 13
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

Coach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12

KATU +3 Aug 7 · 4 outlets

All 6 articles
KATUCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12KATUCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12KATUCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12 - katu.comKCBYCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12KPICCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12KVALCoach JaMarcus Shephard opens new era for Oregon State football in reshaped Pac-12

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes41 stories
Game preview8 stories
Profile and feature6 stories
Quarterback and depth chart4 stories
Conference and schedule3 stories
Loss3 stories

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

Going into the bye I think this is a great opportunity for our team to do some self-assessments. We just can’t get caught up in the storyline because that’s just not the game and it’s not the game itself
See every quote →
Every quote, back to August 2026

In his own words (15)

Going into the bye I think this is a great opportunity for our team to do some self-assessments. We just can’t get caught up in the storyline because that’s just not the game and it’s not the game itself
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day after Oregon State's 2026 game against Washington State
Just super excited to see him, just constantly changing his role
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day after the 66-14 game
To get 14 (players with catches), that’s incredible
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day after the 66-14 game
Hey man don’t stop being you
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day of the 52-17 game
We know what we are capable of, we know what’s possible here and I think we showed a lot of that today
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day after the 24-35 game
Right now, Jaheim, Van, they’re practicing with our team
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day of the 20-33 opener
We’re giving him every chance to come back here if he wants to
Dailybaro Orangemedianetworkthe day of the 20-33 opener
When the statistics all were laid out, his numbers were just a little bit better than some of the other ones
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
The team was excited about him getting this opportunity, and we want to make this fun for him, but also give him the chance to right now get prepared – mentally – to be that starting quarterback
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
Nowadays, with the transfer portal and the way it exists, you kinda just bring one guy onto campus, and you got him for twenty-four hours
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
In that twenty-four hours, so many things can happen.
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
You have to be able to focus on the whole part of every single person on this team
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
There was a transition at one point, after spring ball, where you could tell now that they knew, or that they had expectations of themselves and of the people that are next to them
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
We have even greater expectations. We have put them through the ringer. … They fought, clawed, scratched through every challenge that we’ve asked them to fight through.
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
This is what got Oregon State back on the map
Dailybaro Orangemedianetwork
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 23–23, Regional Program I. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 1 left the program higher than he found it and 4 left it lower. Median stay: 8 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program I job since 1990 (64): typically -0.8 after year 1, -1.9 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+12+8+4what he inherited-4-8hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11yr 12yr 13yr 14yr 15yr 16yr 17yr 18yr 19yr 20Stoops: +10 vs. inheritedCalhoun: -1.2 vs. inheritedChizik: -5.3 vs. inheritedTormey: -7.9 vs. inheritedBabers: -1.9 vs. inheritedShephard: +3.2 vs. inherited▏ Stoops +10Shephard +3.2▏ Calhoun -1.2✕ Babers -1.9▏ Chizik -5.3▏ Tormey -7.9
1Mark Stoops →
→ Kentucky, 2013
2–10 · 5–7 · 5–7 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 10–3 · 8–5 · 5–6 · 10–3 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 4–8 · 5–7
13 seasons
+10.0 vs. what he inherited
2Troy Calhoun →
→ Air Force, 2007
9–4 · 8–5 · 8–5 · 9–4 · 7–6 · 6–7 · 2–10 · 10–3 · 8–6 · 10–3 · 5–7 · 5–7 · 11–2 · 3–3 · 10–3 · 10–3 · 9–4 · 5–7 · 4–8 · 5–1
20 seasons
-1.2 vs. what he inherited
3Gene Chizik →
→ Iowa State, 2007
3–9 · 2–10
2 seasons
-5.3 vs. what he inherited
4Chris Tormey →
→ Nevada, 2000
2–10 · 3–8 · 5–7 · 6–6
4 seasons
-7.9 vs. what he inherited
5Dino Babers →
→ Syracuse, 2016
4–8 · 4–8 · 10–3 · 5–7 · 1–10 · 5–7 · 7–6 · 5–6
8 seasons · left mid-season
-1.9 vs. what he inherited
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
The job he took
Followed Trent Bray (2024–2025), after the season
5–14
Program was sliding in the 2023–2025 run-up.
A Regional Program I job.
How new coaches start here
  • Robb Akey20252–3-3.9
  • Trent Bray20245–7-5.1
  • Jonathan Smith20182–10-4.4
  • Cory Hall20170–6-5.5
  • Gary Andersen20152–10-5.3
  • Dennis Erickson19997–5+2.9
  • Mike Riley19973–8-0.4
  • Jerry Pettibone19911–10-1.3

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled47th-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Oregon State
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-2, outscoring opponents by 19.6 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2026–now
Oregon State
too new to grade yet

Followed Trent Bray (2024–2025).

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 231 lbs
across 7 of 20 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-1.2 lbs
#243 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (2), FL (1), CA (1), KY (1), OK (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
48.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.8
position-weighted
Net
-7.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Braden Atkinson (QB) from Mercer
Biggest loss: Gabarri Johnson (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tackle via the portal
100%
#1 of 223 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
5-2

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Against the spread
6-1
all 7 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-1 0.0%
National Program
0-1 0.0%
Regional Program
4-0 100.0%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

0-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
W
San Diego State · 2026
66-14
Quality opponent
W
Washington State · 2026
48-30
Quality opponent
W
Colorado State · 2026
56-26
Quality opponent
Signature losses
L
Houston · 2026
20-33
L
Texas Tech · 2026
24-35

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%FBS avg 41%Oregon State2026–20261 season
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Oregon State’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 22.8 entering the year to 26.2 through week 8 (Regional Program I) · #3 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

2026
#100
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

34%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 49 of 142 players. The other 93 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 49Inherited 93

Of his own players on this roster, 14% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 14% of the 49 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

CATop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 10 of 20 signees (50%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 10 states in all. Next: LA (2).

Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (20 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

50% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states.

2 signees1 signee3 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee
By region
West
12
South
7
Midwest
1
Roster distance from campus (Reser Stadium, OR)
median hometown distance
761 mi
within 100 mi
13%
within 500 mi
40%
beyond 1,000 mi
34%
134 of 142 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

How to read this. "This week" is the real, current season as of its date, rebuilt every night — not a career verdict. Bands and archetypes elsewhere on this page come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.