The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mark Stoops

Followed Joker Phillips. Mark Stoops moved Kentucky from Regional Program I to National Program II in 13 seasons.

82–80
2013–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 6th career season — faster than 12% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #580 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Kentucky, 13 seasons (active)
+11.7
Regional Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Kentucky2013–2025▼ 1.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Kentucky21.6pt#8 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–17 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Shane Beamer.

Rivalry record
6–17
26.1% · 2 rivals
One-score games
22–22
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–5
0.0%
Buyout owed
$37,687,500
bigger than 88% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Tennessee1–118%
Louisville5–645%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Shane Beamer1–4
5 meetings, 2021–2025
’21 W’22 L’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead’24 L’25 L · blew a 7-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–5 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–10 0.0%
Power Program
19–45 29.7%
National Program
11–9 55.0%
Regional Program
25–6 80.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.25
#252 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.01
#141 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–now
Kentuckycaretakerborderline
Regional Program I → National Program II
Mark Stoops moved Kentucky from Regional Program I to National Program II in 13 seasons.

5th-best Kentucky tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-14.1 pts
#162 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-4.3 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Joker Phillips (2010–2012).

Season2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record2–105–75–77–67–610–38–55–610–37–67–64–85–7
PostseasonCFP lossCFP lossW bowlW CFPW bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#22#38#34#30#37#34#23#32#14#32#24#29
Style — pass rate
Pass rate47.648.735.840.335.631.035.542.543.052.541.546.0
Coordinators
OCNeal BrownShannon DawsonEddie Gran / Darin HinshawEddie Gran / Darin HinshawEddie Gran / Darin HinshawEddie Gran / Darin HinshawEddie Gran / Darin HinshawLiam CoenRich ScangarelloLiam CoenBush HamdanBush Hamdan
DCD. J. EliotD. J. EliotD. J. EliotMatt HouseMatt HouseBrad WhiteBrad WhiteBrad White / Jon SumrallBrad WhiteBrad WhiteBrad WhiteBrad White
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense293970474783196310701324
Defense36581897069445792526853
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%50.045.731.437.934.326.831.542.330.143.536.237.0
Red-zone pass%45.833.024.033.724.323.229.237.746.254.737.029.6
4th-down go%opp. territory36.435.928.915.025.842.130.040.031.730.038.738.7
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
65
3.3★ avg rating
Portal departures
103
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-38
#93 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 245 lbs
across 51 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.7 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#37 of 255 · more than most
Top states: OH (7), KY (7), FL (7), TX (5), GA (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
63.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.4
position-weighted
Net
+2.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Devin Leary (QB) from NC State
Biggest loss: Joey Gatewood (QB) to UCF
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Neal Brown → Shannon Dawson · 2015
29th pct39th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.0% → 45.7% (-4.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 72% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Shannon Dawson → Eddie Gran / co-Darin Hinshaw · 2016
39th pct70th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.7% → 31.4% (-14.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 79% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Eddie Gran / co-Darin Hinshaw → Liam Coen · 2021
19th pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 31.5% → 42.3% (+10.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 39% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Liam Coen → Rich Scangarello · 2022
63rd pct10th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 42.3% → 30.1% (-12.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 62% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Rich Scangarello → Liam Coen · 2023
10th pct70th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 30.1% → 43.5% (+13.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 48% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Liam Coen → Bush Hamdan · 2024
70th pct13th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.5% → 36.2% (-7.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 36% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: D. J. Eliot → Matt House · 2017the system held
38th pct40th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Matt House → Brad White · 2019the system held
40th pct56th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Brad White → Brad White / co-Jon Sumrall · 2021
44th pct57th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brad White / co-Jon Sumrall → Brad White · 2022
57th pct92nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
220 lbs
6′3″ avg · #171 of 767 · more than most
Running back
214 lbs
5′11″ avg · #141 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #400 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
248 lbs
6′5″ avg · #264 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
318 lbs
6′5″ avg · #64 of 779 · more than most
D-line
307 lbs
6′4″ avg · #30 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
233 lbs
6′3″ avg · #181 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #177 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
64%
#37 of 206 stints
Grows P from high school
83%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
83%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2016: Lost to Georgia Tech 18–33 CFP2017: Lost to Northwestern 23–24 CFP2018: Beat Penn State 27–24 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2019: Beat Virginia Tech 37–30 CFP2020: Beat NC State 23–21 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2021: Beat Iowa 20–17 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2022: Lost to Iowa 0–21 TransPerfect Music City Bowl2023: Lost to Clemson 35–38 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

35 NFL Draft picks: Larry Warford (2013), Avery Williamson (2014), Bud Dupree (2015), Za'Darius Smith (2015), Josh Forrest (2016), Josh Allen (2019), Lonnie Johnson Jr. (2019), Mike Edwards (2019) + 27 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Darian Kinnard (2021), Barion Brown (2023)

82–80