Fresno State at Utah State
Usual during the game: 40°, between 30° and 50° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 4,685 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium32 games since 2016 · How we measure
Fresno State (5‑3) at Utah State (3‑5) — Fresno State is favored by 2.5. Utah State’s offense is at the 15th percentile on efficiency; Fresno State’s defense is at the 71st.
How they got here
Last three games
Fresno State · 5-3
Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 49th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 16-point win over Oregon State as a 6-point underdog.
Last three games
Utah State · 3-5
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 57th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Utah State’s rushing EPA against Fresno State, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Utah State’s EPA/play against Fresno State’s defense
Utah State offense, 15th percentile · Fresno State defense, 71st
Utah State’s rushing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Utah State offense, 14th percentile · Fresno State defense, 78th
What’s at stake
Fresno State
- Fresno State is 2 games back in Pac-12 with 2 left to make it up — 13% to win it with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Fresno State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
Utah State
- Utah State is 2 games back in Pac-12 with 2 left to make it up — 3% to win it with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Utah State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
The series
Fresno State leads the series 19-14-1
34 meetings since 1952 · Utah State won the last meeting
- 2025Utah State 28-17
- 2023Fresno State 37-32
- 2020Fresno State 35-16
- 2019Utah State 37-35
- 2016Utah State 38-20
Each line is Utah State’s chance to win through that meeting. Utah State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Fresno State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsBulldog fans built a whole ethos around it: Fresno would drive into anybody's stadium and dare the name-brand programs to schedule them back. They say the giants ducked the Valley for years, and the Pac-12 invite is the door finally cracking open.
What this game touches
The post-2018 slide. After Jeff Tedford's 2018 Mountain West championship, Fresno cooled into ordinary seasons and coaching turnover before Matt Entz's first year in 2025 restored it to 9-4 and an Arizona Bowl win — the live proof that the Valley standard had slipped and then snapped back.
Utah State
The chip · vs big brotherAggie fans have spent forever as the state's third program, behind Utah and BYU, told Logan is too small and too cold to matter. They'll point to the Pac-12 invitation and ask which little brother is moving up now.
What this game touches
The years of churn before the reset. Utah State's 2021 Mountain West title gave way to staff upheaval and instability, and Bronco Mendenhall inherited a program that needed rebuilding. His first year, 2025, went 6-7 (4-4 Mountain West) with a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Washington State — a steadying season, not yet a winning one.
Best players
Fresno State
- K'Vion Thunderbird (LB) · 65 tackles
- Josiah Freeman (WR) · 512 receiving yards
- Jayden Mandal (QB) · 1,595 passing yards
Utah State
- Asher Cunningham (LB) · 64 tackles
- Brevin Hamblin (S) · 62 tackles
- Titan Saxton (DB) · 46 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are in a better mood than Fresno State fans (72nd percentile vs 27th among FBS fanbases), even with Fresno State favored.
Fresno State favored by 2.5 · Total 42.5
Fresno State by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Fresno State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Maverik Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm and 7:30 pm Saturdays 83
Fresno State at Utah State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · Maverik Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Maverik Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm 83, 7:30 pm 83.
- noon: 91, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 83, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Utah State is worth +5.2 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 67th percentile.
62% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (26-16 home, 21-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,685 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 545 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Utah State
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
- Wk 5Lat Boise State18-37
- Wk 6Wvs Washington State17-16
- Wk 8Lat Texas State17-20
- Wk 9Wvs Colorado State31-14
Fresno State
- Wk 4Wvs Rice38-24
- Wk 5Wat Washington State26-6
- Wk 6Lvs Boise State31-38
- Wk 7Lat San Diego State23-26
- Wk 9Wvs Oregon State38-22
Power rating by week
Fresno State is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 41.5 → 42.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Utah State4th2-2
- Fresno State5th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Utah State 37, Fresno State 35Nov 9, 2019