San Diego State upsets Fresno State 26-23
Team pages: Fresno State · San Diego State
San Diego State beat Fresno State 26-23 as a 6.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Fresno State favored. San Diego State won.
Next: Fresno State vs Oregon State, Sat Oct 31
Next: San Diego State at Colorado State, Sat Oct 24 · 6:30 PM ET · San Diego State favored by 1.5
How it swung
The turning point: Emanuel 7-yd TD pass to Napier, San Diego State goes ahead 23-17 (Q4, 12:00). San Diego State went from 40% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave San Diego State a 19% chance, and the closing betting line (San Diego State was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.
San Diego State · Q4 12:00San Diego State 26-23 Fresno State
San Diego State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Fresno State 23-26 San Diego StateFresno State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 12:00Emanuel 7-yd TD pass to Napier, San Diego State goes ahead 23-17San Diego State 40% → 73% (+33)
- 2Q4 5:02Gillick 2-yd TD run, ties it 23-23San Diego State 69% → 47% (−22)
- 3Q4 0:57DiLeva 53-yd field goal, San Diego State goes ahead 26-23San Diego State 70% → 90% (+20)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 12:00Emanuel 7-yd TD pass to Napier, San Diego State goes ahead 23-17Fresno State 60% → 27% (−33)
- 2Q4 5:02Gillick 2-yd TD run, ties it 23-23Fresno State 31% → 53% (+22)
- 3Q4 0:57DiLeva 53-yd field goal, San Diego State goes ahead 26-23Fresno State 30% → 10% (−20)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Fresno State -6.5), at 40% for San Diego State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
San Diego State scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Fresno State on 4 of its 12.
San Diego State’s drives are teal, Fresno State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Fresno State’s side
Fresno State’s best moment: Gillick 2-yd TD run, ties it 23-23 (Q4 5:02). It lifted Fresno State’s win chance by 22 points.
Too close to call on 48% of plays.
What it cost
Fresno State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 3% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 17, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Fresno State plays vs Oregon State on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to make the playoff. San Diego State plays at Colorado State on Sat Oct 24 with a 7% chance to win the conference.
Box score
San Diego State 26, Fresno State 23
San Diego State covered +6.5 by 9.5. The total, 49, went over 46.5.
| Team totals | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 276 | 384 |
| Passing | 13 of 25, 141 yds | 14 of 22, 180 yds |
| Rushing | 40 for 135 yds | 40 for 204 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 17 |
| Third down | 4 of 13 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 25 yds | 5 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:34 | 28:26 |
Fresno State leaders
- Passing Jayden Mandal 13 of 25, 141 yds
- Rushing Bryson Donelson 13 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Rayshon Luke 10 for 47 yds
- Receiving Josiah Freeman 3 for 49 yds; Ezekiel Avit 3 for 43 yds
San Diego State leaders
- Passing Jayden Denegal 7 of 10, 112 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Lucky Sutton 18 for 110 yds; Javion Kinnard 14 for 77 yds
- Receiving Jaylon Hawkins 6 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Napier 3 for 55 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
78° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 7
The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 61° and 69°.
October game-day temperatures at Snapdragon Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at San Diego/montg airport, 2.4 miles away, and San Diego/lindberg airport, 5.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Old Oil Can — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
Fresno State · 4-2
Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 46th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 20-point win over Washington State as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
San Diego State · 2-4
Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 94th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 2-point win over Texas State as a 10-point underdog.
Week by week
San Diego State
- Wk 2Lat UCLA10-28
- Wk 3Lvs James Madison13-26
- Wk 4Lat Toledo16-41
- Wk 5Wvs Texas State31-29
- Wk 6Lat Oregon State14-66
Fresno State
- Wk 2Wvs Sacramento State49-3
- Wk 3Wat San José State26-10
- Wk 4Wvs Rice38-24
- Wk 5Wat Washington State26-6
- Wk 6Lvs Boise State31-38
Power rating by week
Fresno State is rated 5.2 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: San Diego State’s EPA/play against Fresno State, 62 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
San Diego State’s EPA/play against Fresno State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 3rd percentile · Fresno State defense, 65th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Fresno State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 15th percentile · Fresno State defense, 72nd
San Diego State’s rushing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 4th percentile · Fresno State defense, 63rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
San Diego State leads the series 19-13
32 meetings since 1969 · San Diego State has won the last 2
- 2025San Diego State 23-0
- 2023San Diego State 33-18
- 2022Fresno State 32-28
- 2021Fresno State 30-20
- 2019San Diego State 17-7
Each line is San Diego State’s chance to win through that meeting. San Diego State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Fresno State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 19%
- Line · 30%
- San Diego State fans · 20th
- Fresno State fans · 91st
Fresno State favored by 6.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Fresno State by 6.5, on the usual path until 1:52 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward San Diego State.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: +8.5 → +6.5 · Total: 43.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
San Diego State is worth +3.5 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 37th percentile.
62% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (30-18 home, 20-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 316 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- San Diego State5th1-1
- Fresno State4th1-1