Oregon State at Fresno State
Oregon State (5‑2) travels to Fresno State (4‑3). No market line yet; the model gives Oregon State a 66% shot. Oregon State’s offense is at the 91st percentile on success rate; Fresno State’s defense is at the 39th.
How they got here
Last three games
Oregon State · 5-2
Rated 69th in our preseason ratings, 26th now, up 43 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 56-26 @ Colorado State #87 of 668
won by 30 as a 7-point favorite
Last three games
Fresno State · 4-3
Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 52nd now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 20-point win over Washington State as a 2.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s success rate against Fresno State, 52 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon State’s success rate against Fresno State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 91st percentile · Fresno State defense, 39th
Oregon State’s passing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 94th percentile · Fresno State defense, 53rd
Fresno State’s explosive plays against Oregon State’s defense
Fresno State offense, 58th percentile · Oregon State defense, 87th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Fresno State leads the series 9-6
15 meetings since 1981 · Fresno State won the last meeting
- 2025Fresno State 36-27
- 2022Oregon State 35-32
- 2003Fresno State 16-14
- 2002Oregon State 59-19
- 2001Fresno State 44-24
Each line is Fresno State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Oregon State
The chip · vs big brotherOregon walked into the Big Ten and left the Civil War behind without a backward glance. The fanbase in Corvallis hasn't forgotten which neighbor abandoned the rivalry — or that the Beavers stayed when staying was the hard thing.
What this game touches
Left behind in the Pac-12 collapse. When ten Pac-12 schools announced departures for 2024, only Oregon State and Washington State were left holding a 108-year-old conference with no other members. The Beavers won the legal fight to keep the brand, then spent 2025 paying the football cost: a 2-10 season, a 0-7 start, and Trent Bray fired seven games in.
Fresno State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsBulldog fans built a whole ethos around it: Fresno would drive into anybody's stadium and dare the name-brand programs to schedule them back. They say the giants ducked the Valley for years, and the Pac-12 invite is the door finally cracking open.
What this game touches
The post-2018 slide. After Jeff Tedford's 2018 Mountain West championship, Fresno cooled into ordinary seasons and coaching turnover before Matt Entz's first year in 2025 restored it to 9-4 and an Arizona Bowl win — the live proof that the Valley standard had slipped and then snapped back.
Best players
Oregon State
- Jesse Legree (WR) · 1,040 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 8th (+1800)
- Braden Atkinson (QB) · 2,583 passing yards — Heisman odds: 10th (+2000)
- Aiden Sullivan (LB) · 53 tackles
Fresno State
- K'Vion Thunderbird (LB) · 61 tackles
- Josiah Freeman (WR) · 424 receiving yards
- Jayden Mandal (QB) · 1,393 passing yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Braden Atkinson (QB) — Oregon State’s leading passer (2,583 passing yards) takes on Fresno State’s pass defense (53rd percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Fresno State fans are in a better mood than Oregon State fans (91st vs 48th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon State favored.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Valley Children's Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83
Oregon State at Fresno State · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Valley Children's Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Valley Children's Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 83, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Fresno State is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.
69% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (29-13 home, 28-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 566 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Fresno State
- Wk 3Wat San José State26-10
- Wk 4Wvs Rice38-24
- Wk 5Wat Washington State26-6
- Wk 6Lvs Boise State31-38
- Wk 7Lat San Diego State23-26
Oregon State
- Wk 3Wvs Montana52-17
- Wk 4Wat UTEP33-7
- Wk 5Wat Colorado State56-26
- Wk 6Wvs San Diego State66-14
- Wk 7Wvs Washington State48-30
Power rating by week
Oregon State is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Fresno State6th1-2
- Oregon State1st3-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Oregon State 35, Fresno State 32Sep 10, 2022