Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 21-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Favored the whole way: Houston never fell below 91%.
Oregon State never had better than a 9% chance.
FinalHouston 33-20 Oregon StateHouston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalOregon State 20-33 HoustonOregon State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 12:57A streaker ran on the field.PUT HIM ON CAMERA, YOU COWARDS!r/CFB game thread
Q1 8:13Houston scores on Thomas catch but misses PAT, leaving score 6-0TD Amare Thomas. Go Coogs.r/CFB game thread
Q1 6:17Atkinson runs for a touchdown to give Oregon State a 7-6 leadI really want Atkinson to be goodr/CFB game thread
Q1 4:15Houston kicks field goal to take lead as fans react to Henderson's incomplete passQuoted at the top of the page.
Q1 1:01Fans criticize officials for short spots on Oregon State's drive before turnover on downsI thought it was 1st down the before thatr/CFB game thread2 terrible spots before the 4th downr/CFB game thread
Q1 0:23I’m just so god damn happy we actually look like a real life football team so far lolr/CFB game threadGod I missed commercial season.r/CFB game thread
Q4 9:02ESPN switches broadcast to Texas game, moving Oregon State-Houston to ESPNewsESPN geniuses offering the Texas game in English and Spanish instead of the end of the best game of the weekend so farr/CFB game threadCountless years I've had to wait for a blow out game to finish so ESPN could cut to Oregon State halfway through the first quarter and they bump us in a close game. Man.r/CFB game thread
Houston’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Houston -21), at 94% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Houston or Oregon State flair (460 and 696); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Oregon State fans
tackling“I'm not even mad about the missed FG. It was nice to see it executed decently enough. I AM mad about the awful tackling.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, looks, half, back.
Box score
Houston 33, Oregon State 20
Oregon State covered +21 by 8. The total, 53, went over 50.5.
Team totals
Oregon State
Houston
Total yards
402
533
Passing
29 of 48, 376 yds
20 of 31, 305 yds
Rushing
25 for 26 yds
41 for 228 yds
First downs
20
24
Third down
4 of 15
7 of 13
Fourth down
2 of 5
1 of 1
Turnovers
0
2
Penalties
5 for 42 yds
10 for 65 yds
Time of possession
29:10
30:50
Oregon State leaders
Passing Braden Atkinson 29 of 48, 376 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Kourdey Glass 6 for 25 yds; AJ Newberry 7 for 17 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jesse Legree 5 for 136 yds, 1 TD; Eric Olsen 4 for 54 yds
Houston leaders
Passing Conner Weigman 20 of 30, 305 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Makhi Hughes 17 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Re'Shaun Sanford II 11 for 75 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Amare Thomas 8 for 133 yds, 1 TD; Patrick Overmyer 6 for 84 yds
Rain for part of the game
88° at kickoff · feels like 93° to 101° · 0.1 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 2.8 miles away recorded no rain; another 0.2 in fell while play was stopped
A feels-like 101° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 56 other games played at TDECU Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Houston Dunn airport, 2.8 miles away, and Houston/will Hobby airport, 7.1 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Biggest mismatch: Houston’s explosive plays against Oregon State, 78 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Houston’s explosive plays against Oregon State’s defense
Houston offense, 9th percentile · Oregon State defense, 87th
Oregon State’s EPA/play against Houston’s defense
Oregon State offense, 95th percentile · Houston defense, 34th
Oregon State’s passing EPA against Houston’s defense
Oregon State offense, 94th percentile · Houston defense, 29th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Oregon StateHouston
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Houston leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 1960 · Houston has won the last 3
2025Houston 27-24
1970Houston 19-16
1961Houston 23-12
1960Oregon State 29-20
Each line is Houston’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Houston fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (94th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Model · 87%
Line · 95%
Houston fans · 94th
Oregon State fans · 45th
Houston favored by 21 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Houston by 21, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Houston.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −18.5 → −21 · Total: 51.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 97° at kickoff.
Oregon State at Houston · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · TDECU Stadium, Houston
97°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
42weather score, Harsh
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At TDECU Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 69, against 42 at 11 am.
Houston has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.7 points (±3.6), home against road — 0th percentile of FBS.
55% at home, 57% on the road against FBS opponents (24-20 home, 27-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,834 miles to get here.
Houston 33-20 Oregon State
Houston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.