Tulsa

3-0

American Athletic · Tre Lamb, year 2 (7-8) · Chapman Stadium · 30,000 · 22,404 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#99 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #72 (-1.2) · FPI #72
The marketArkansas by 7at Arkansas · our model 66% Tulsa · a number, not a pick

LastW 42–0 vs East Texas A&M · Sat Sep 19 · Dexter Williams II 164 pass yds, 3 TD, 9 rush yds

Nextat Arkansas · Sat Sep 26 · 8 pm ET · Razorback Stadium · Arkansas by 7 · series 16-51-2, lost the last 19 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Tulsa · 2026 schedule & results3-0
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#107#262+13Oklahoma StateW 24–10 1431-00-0
2Sep 12#113#160-12.5@Sam HoustonW 23–17 1392-00-0
3Sep 20#125#233-41.5East Texas A&MW 42–0 1413-00-0
4Sep 27#104#134+7@Arkansas
5Oct 2#104#111North Texas
6Oct 10@Navy
7Oct 17@Rice
8Oct 24Army
10Nov 7@Tulane
11Nov 14Florida Atlantic
12Nov 21Charlotte
13Nov 28@UTSA
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 20East Texas A&MW 42–0450129:42+0.31951.4%120.4%Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12@Sam HoustonW 23–17367030:18+0.00932.4%152.4%Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5Oklahoma StateW 24–10361128:55+0.18641.4%108.5%
Season average (3 games)3930.7+0.17141.7%127.1%
Verdict Begins·Live

Tulsa is the tiny Oklahoma private school that out-scored everybody for a decade — and is trying, under a first-year coach, to remember how the offense used to feel like a track meet.

Standard GapAn early-2010s run of double-digit-win seasons and conference titles…

Tulsa fans are tired of being the program everyone forgets is in the FBS — the 4,000-student private school nobody schedules out of respect. They'll remind you it has more bowl history than schools…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season

Game feel52even gamescombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate2-3white-knucklein one-score games (5 of 12)2nd most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin-5.8competitiveavg scoring margin10th best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo74uptempooffensive plays / game3rd fastest of 13 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.26some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)9th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd16,369avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic

✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Tulsa has won four of its last five.

Warming. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 5-5
What we tell ourselves and what we keep in mind is what happened last year. We won a few games and got big heads, then we got comfortable and lost a bunch of games in a row
Green · Tucollegianthe day after Tulsa's 2026 game against East Texas A&M
The forecast

Next Sep 27

vs Arkansas · away

SoftEliteBend-don't-break

~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

CFP championship#107 in field+125000
AAC title#8 in market+725

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Tulsa · the story right now 8 storylines developing

What Tulsa's identity shift is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

identitythis cycle~readnew

Tre Lamb inherits a 4-8 losing record at Tulsa, a program defined by its historic Oklahoma-G5 identity but now navigating a fanbase in transition.

what happenedTulsa: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coaching2025 cycle~readnew

Tre Lamb inherits Tulsa's third head coach in five seasons and a 4-8 roster with 92% QB production returning — historic-Oklahoma-G5-football outside Norman + Stillwater demands stability.

what happenedTre Lamb took over as Tulsa's head coach, replacing Kevin Wilson. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

our readbackground

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Tulsa jumped 24 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and 4-8 record is the story Tre Lamb has to answer in American Athletic this year.

what happenedTulsa enters 2026 rated No. 104 in 2025 SP+ (-10.0), up 24 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back

our readbackground

coordinators2025 cycle✓ factnew

Tulsa: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

our readbackground

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Tulsa, the Oklahoma private university with Todd Graham's 2010 11-3 season, now sits at 4-8, highlighting a gap between its historic G5 identity and current struggles.

what happenedTulsa: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

market_swing2026-09-14✓ factnew

Tulsa aac championship shortened — implied probability moved from 5.8% to 10.0% (+4.2pp) between Sep 13 and Sep 14, 2026 (tier C).

the contextwin total up 0.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction

our readbackground

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

Dominic Richardson gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Zion Booker: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredTulsa's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downTulsa's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedTulsa's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

Outcome band · Tulsa · 2026

Tulsa's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.

Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Tulsa · Developing Confidence

Tulsa: the fanbase's identity shifting.

the room is genuinely split where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 15% volume
The saga so far3 weeks old
last weekAAC title odds: +1625 → +900 (▲4.2pp implied)
last weekAAC title odds: +5500 → +1625 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekAAC title odds: +1625 → +5500 (▼4.0pp implied)
3 weeks agoOSU releases depth chart for Tulsa game — Official
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Tre Lamb inherits a 4-8 losing record at Tulsa, a program defined by its historic Oklahoma-G5 identity but now navigating a fanbase in transition.
Source of record: Tulsa: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards loud
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Tulsa improves to 3-0 for first time since 2008 in 42-0 win over East Texas A&M”
citynewsokc.com · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
“Ryan Silverfield impressed with Tulsa, praises Chris Marshall”
KNWA FOX24 · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“What Ryan Silverfield said at Arkansas football press conference previewing Tulsa”
Southwest Times Record · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Tulsa prepares for physical test at Arkansas with Baylor Hayes…” — the real counter.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Tulsa prepares for physical test at Arkansas with Baylor Hayes doubtful”
News On 6 · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes doubtful for game at Arkansas football”
Whole Hog Sports · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
💬The boards15% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.

This event was in 54 of 364 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"What a timeline where Arkansas is so turbo ass they realistically could lose to Tulsa"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Also, and I know this is new for us, but TULSA ISN'T BAD THIS YEAR! The entire narrative has been how shitty OSU must be to lose to us. I'm not saying we'll make the playoffs or an"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Tulsa · Coaching Confidence

The Tre Lamb story at Tulsa won't sit still.

Tre Lamb took over as Tulsa's head coach, replacing Kevin Wilson. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 3% volume
Developing1 new this week
todayTulsa coach Tre Lamb looks ahead to Arkansas at 9-21 presser — Tulsa World
last weekAAC title odds: +1625 → +900 (▲4.2pp implied)
last weekWATCH: Tre Lamb discusses emotional week, Tulsa QB change after 2-0 start — News On 6
last weekAAC title odds: +5500 → +1625 (▲4.0pp implied)
last weekAAC title odds: +1625 → +5500 (▼4.0pp implied)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Tre Lamb Head coach
“Tulsa coach Tre Lamb looks ahead to Arkansas at 9-21 presser” — Tulsa World · 2026-09-22
Kevin Wilson Out
Eric Morris
“Eric Morris Sees Tulsa Coach Tre Lamb as 'Superstar in the Making'” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-04
Any Weaknesses
“Tulsa Coach Tre Lamb Has High Praise for Oklahoma State: ‘They Don’t Have Any Weaknesses’” — roundtable.io · 2026-08-27
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Tre Lamb inherits Tulsa's third head coach in five seasons and a 4-8 roster with 92% QB production returning — historic-Oklahoma-G5-football outside Norman + Stillwater demands stability.
Source of record: Tre Lamb took over as Tulsa's head coach, replacing Kevin Wilson — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thinThe Dominoes active
📣Believers7 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“Bill Haisten: As Tre Lamb called his shot, TU’s win was not a fluke”
Bill Haisten · tulsaworld.com · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“Tulsa coach Tre Lamb reviews win over OSU, looks ahead to Sam Houston State”
tulsaworld.com · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“Bill Haisten: Tre Lamb scored hustle points in Friday night recruiting”
Bill Haisten · tulsaworld.com · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards11 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 11 of 364 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Tre Lamb said this is as the most important game of the season for Tulsa and I agree. Road game against an opponent who stretches the field a lot and is a home opener for a new sta"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"You see that’s our specialty, but I have a weird amount of trust that Tre Lamb will have this team ready."
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

🔗The dominoes15 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Broken Arrow quarterback Shamar Banner commits to Tulsa”
On3 · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Tulsa football adds QB Shamar Banner to Golden Hurricane's 2027 recruiting class”
The Oklahoman · 2026-09-21 · read ↗

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Tulsa is the Oklahoma private university whose Todd Graham 2010 11-3 + 2012 Liberty Bowl + Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium define what historic-Oklahoma-G5-football looks like outside Norman + Stillwater.

Offense: SoftDefense: EliteDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025Hired Tre Lamb
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Tulsa

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production41%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#84 nationally247 composite 622.8
Portal Additions21Primary repair: RB
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#93Depth class
WRin 4 - David Wells Jr.3.70out 6 - Zion Booker3.50Starter Risk
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profileBoom-or-bustmoves the chains on third down his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
Homegrown
RBin 4 - Trequan Jones3.60out 1 - Ajay Allen4.28Need Filled
current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Speed Merchant2025 profilehits the crease and outruns the angle
Junior-college recruit
Sin 2 - Rylan Leathers1.00out 2 - Buddha Garrett3.49Downgrade
current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Jayden Madkins3.30out 2 - Joe Hjelle3.50Even
current room: 259 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Kyran Duhon3.80out 2 - J'Dan Burnett3.50Even
3-Tech Penetratordisrupts the pocket from the interior
LBin 1 - Devin Hightower3.40out 2 - Ray Coney3.60Downgrade
current room: 226 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebacker2025 profileis steady in every phase without a signature trait
Third program
Full roster (111 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Tulsa

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    OSU releases depth chart for Tulsa game

    OSU's depth chart is out and the Cowboy offense gets its first real test — Tulsa's WR depth is thin enough that Lamb's group can't afford a slow start on the other side of the ball.

  2. Coaching

    Tulsa to honor coach's late wife

    Tre Lamb's first season carries weight beyond the depth chart — Tulsa pauses a rebuild to honor the woman behind the coach.

    Sep 15Reported
  3. News

    TU's first-ever win in Stillwater

    First win ever in Stillwater — Tre Lamb's program just crossed a line that 100+ years of Tulsa football couldn't, and the rising SP+ isn't a coincidence anymore.

  4. News

    Tulsa has tight 3-way QB battle

    Three QBs fighting for one job in fall camp — Lamb's offense can't get its identity locked in until that depth chart clears, and a WR room already under pressure needs to know who's throwing to them.

    Aug 12Reported
  5. Recruiting

    Tulsa loses 2027 commit

    A 2027 decommit this early stings differently when your class is already sitting 92nd — Lamb's WR room can't afford to lose ground it hasn't fully built yet.

    Jul 23Reported
  6. Recruiting

    Romel Koon commits to Tulsa

    A DB commit in a rebuild year matters — but the WR room is still where Lamb's 109th-ranked class has the most obvious pressure to add.

    Jul 13Official
Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-2.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: -10.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
RB
+7.4
need filled
WR
-6.9
starter risk
S
-4.9
OT
-3.5
low confidence
LB
-3.4
K
+3.3
low confidence
DL
-2.7
IOL
+2.5
LS
-2.0
low confidence
TE
-0.8
EDGE
+0.4
CB
+0.0
P
+0.0
QB
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Jamarcea Plater
RB · Shreveport, LA
#554 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Xavier Green
WR · The Colony, TX
#1211 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 19 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Alan Pond
IOL · Storm Lake, IA
#36 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

20
OK · 6TX · 5FL · 2GA · 2AR · 1IA · 1KS · 1LA · 1+1 more

OK leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

88 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIA2ILIN1OH4PANJCTCAUTCONEMO1KYWVVAMDDE1RIAZNMKS2AR6TNNCSCDCOK22LA1MSAL1GA2AKHITX43FL2
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Tulsa player grew up 247 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

46th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%16–548 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi30%30 of 101 players
Farthest1,558 miDavid Wells Jr. · Lakewood, WA
Closest3 miSevion Morrison · Tulsa, OK

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Chapman Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 101 of 111 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns OK · 2026 roster

33% of the Tulsa roster grew up in OK.

36 of 109 players, drawn from 20 states in all. That is the 60th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

Signing day undersells it: only 25% of the last 4 classes were from OK, but walk-ons and transfers pull the roster 8 points back toward home.

OK · 36TX · 32GA · 11FL · 6LA · 4AR · 3KS · 2OH · 2+12 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

109 players across 20 states. Biggest pull outside OK: TX (32).

MEVTNHWA1IDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIA1IL1IN1OH2PANJCTCA1UTCO1NEMO1KYWVVAMDDERIAZ1NMKS2AR3TN2NC1SC1DCOK36LA4MSAL1GA11AKHITX32FL6
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 2 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] ECU Defeats Tulsa 41-27
129 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] Memphis Defeats Tulsa 45-7
109 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] Tulsa Defeats East Texas A&M 42-0
108 upvotes · Sep 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 52% never transferred. D
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

87th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
87th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
Fans 46pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

4 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #20, Ralph Russo (The Athletic), to #23, Dylan Sinn (The Journal Gazette). 64 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.

3 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

15 penalties committed, 20 drawn on opponents — netting a 33-yard field-position edge.

152 penalty yards committed vs. 185 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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