San Diego State at Colorado State
Usual during the game: 50°, between 37° and 62° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 5,014 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium29 games since 2016 · How we measure
San Diego State (3‑4) at Colorado State (2‑4) — San Diego State is favored by 1.5. Colorado State’s offense is at the 57th percentile on success rate; San Diego State’s defense is at the 5th.
How they got here
Last three games
San Diego State · 3-4
Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Fresno State as a 6.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Colorado State · 2-4
Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 104th now.
Three straight losses.
L 26-56 vs Oregon State #38 of 668
lost by 30 as a 7-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: Colorado State’s success rate against San Diego State, 52 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Colorado State’s success rate against San Diego State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 57th percentile · San Diego State defense, 5th
Colorado State’s rushing EPA against San Diego State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 97th percentile · San Diego State defense, 45th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Colorado State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 15th percentile · Colorado State defense, 61st
What’s at stake
San Diego State
- San Diego State needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 52% to get there with a win here, 12% with a loss.
- San Diego State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2018.
Colorado State
- Colorado State needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 10% to get there with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Colorado State is still shaking off a 39-point loss.
The series
San Diego State leads the series 23-15
38 meetings since 1978 · San Diego State won the last meeting
- 2025San Diego State 45-24
- 2023Colorado State 22-19
- 2020San Diego State 29-17
- 2019San Diego State 24-10
- 2016Colorado State 63-31
Each line is Colorado State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
San Diego State
The chip · vs the national mediaAztec fans are tired of being the program everyone respects and nobody ranks — the California school with two Hall-of-Fame names in its past that kept getting filed under 'G5.' They'll tell you the Pac-12 invite just made official what they always knew.
What this game touches
The doorstep years — the realignment bridesmaid. For a decade SDSU built like a power program — a 12-win 2016, a College Football Playoff-adjacent reputation, a brand-new Snapdragon Stadium in 2022 — and watched bigger leagues form, dissolve, and reform without it. The 2024 season bottomed at 3-9 under new coach Sean Lewis before the rebuild and the Pac-12 invitation arrived together.
Colorado State
The chip · vs big brotherRams fans have spent a generation watching Colorado get the cameras, the recruits, and the benefit of the doubt while Fort Collins gets called the other Colorado school. The Pac-12 move is the chance, finally, to be looked at as a peer instead of a punchline.
What this game touches
The 2025 bottom-out. The Rams went 2-10 (1-7 MW) and fired Jay Norvell on October 19 after a 2-5 start — a humiliating final Mountain West season right before the move up, with interim coach Tyson Summers closing out the year.
Best players
San Diego State
- Sione Hala (LB) · 62 tackles
- Tano Letuli (LB) · 56 tackles
- Josh Hunter (S) · 47 tackles
Colorado State
- Oumar Diomande (LB) · 54 tackles
- TreShawn Moore (S) · 47 tackles
- Reginald Vick Jr (WR) · 367 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Jayden Brown (RB) — Colorado State’s leading rusher (431 rushing yards) takes on San Diego State’s run defense (45th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (59.5 → 62.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Colorado State fans are in a better mood than San Diego State fans (53rd vs 24th among FBS fanbases), even with San Diego State favored.
San Diego State favored by 1.5 · Total 62.5
San Diego State by 1.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
San Diego State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
San Diego State at Colorado State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 6:30 pm ET · The CW · Canvas Stadium.
- 51°feels like
- 8%average rain chance
- 17 mphwind gusts
- 91weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Canvas Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 85.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 85, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Colorado State is worth +3.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 44th percentile.
40% at home, 21% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 9-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.3 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
5,014 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 855 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Colorado State
- Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
- Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41
- Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59
- Wk 5Lvs Oregon State26-56
- Wk 7Lat Texas State27-66
San Diego State
- Wk 3Lvs James Madison13-26
- Wk 4Lat Toledo16-41
- Wk 5Wvs Texas State31-29
- Wk 6Lat Oregon State14-66
- Wk 7Wvs Fresno State26-23
Power rating by week
San Diego State is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Colorado State.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: +3 → +1.5 · Total: 59.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Colorado State7th0-2
- San Diego State3rd2-1