Texas State routs Colorado State 66-27

Colorado State2-427
Texas State3-366Final
Thu, Oct 15 · Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, Texas · Crowd 16,229CBS Sports Network

Texas State routed Colorado State 66-27.

We had Texas State favored. It won.

Next: Colorado State vs San Diego State, Sat Oct 24 · 6:30 PM ET · Colorado State underdog by 1.5

Next: Texas State vs Utah State, Sat Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Texas State favored by 13.5

Top comment in the game thread

Colorado State has the biggest football operating budget in the Pac12, the highest paid coach in the league, the second highest NIL roster estimate, a nice relatively new stadium…

Q4 14:40 · r/CFB game thread · Thu, Oct 15

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas State a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas State was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.

TargetingQ2 6:20
FinalTexas State 66-27 Colorado StateTexas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
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50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Texas StateLowest 0%Lost27-66ScoresTargetingC. StateT. StateColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 3 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 2 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 3 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 0 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minuteTexas State fans: 1 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 0:08Fans mock the referee for arguing with the coach before the field goalEven the ref is like what you doing coach 😂r/CFB game thread
  2. Q3 11:30Texas State scores to make it 52-27, sparking comments about the high-scoring offensive battleThe anti Boise Stater/CFB game threadOffensive play caller, on thee offensive side? As opposed to calling offensive plays on the defensive side?r/CFB game thread
  3. Q3 2:03Texas State scores touchdown to lead 66-27 in third quarterColorado State has a concept of a defenser/CFB game threadFor the sake of the neighbors I hope Tex State doesn’t have a cannon or train horn.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 14:40Texas State fans celebrate their 66-27 lead and massive offensive outputQuoted at the top of the page.
Texas State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas State -15.5), at 89% for Texas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas State or Colorado State flair (120 and 107); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Every drive

Texas State scored on 10 of its 13 drives; Colorado State on 4 of its 13.

Texas State’s drives are teal, Colorado State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Texas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntColorado State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 67PuntTexas State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntTexas State: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntTexas State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 56DownsQ2Texas State: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntColorado State: Touchdown, from 28 yards out to 0TouchdownTexas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTexas State: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTexas State: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 5Field goalQ3Colorado State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTexas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 43DownsTexas State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 56DownsTexas State: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntQ4Texas State: Missed field goal, from 63 yards out to 13Missed FGColorado State: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 49DownsTexas State: End of game, from 51 yards out to 44End of game
“What is going on in here?”
A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

It was the third quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthTexas State fansColorado State fansusual

What it cost

Colorado State’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.

Win the conference

Colorado State · lost1% → ▼0%
Texas State · won6% → ▲7%6%▲ 7%

Before the game (October 15, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Colorado State plays vs San Diego State on Sat Oct 24 with a 0% chance to win the conference. Texas State plays vs Utah State on Sat Oct 24 with a 7% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Texas State 66, Colorado State 27

Texas State covered −15.5 by 23.5. The total, 93, went over 69.5.

Colorado StateTexas StateTotal yardsColorado State 437Texas State 716437716Passing yardsColorado State 289Texas State 213289213Rushing yardsColorado State 148Texas State 503148503First downsColorado State 18Texas State 311831TurnoversColorado State 0Texas State 101Time of possessionColorado State 30:36Texas State 29:2430:3629:24
Team totalsColorado StateTexas State
Total yards437716
Passing26 of 41, 289 yds14 of 19, 213 yds
Rushing31 for 148 yds55 for 503 yds
First downs1831
Third down4 of 155 of 9
Fourth down2 of 52 of 2
Turnovers01
Penalties6 for 77 yds4 for 30 yds
Time of possession30:3629:24

Colorado State leaders

  • Passing Ksaan Farrar 26 of 41, 289 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Oliver Lundberg-Coleman 7 for 46 yds; Durell Robinson 7 for 31 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Jackson Harper 5 for 91 yds; Tommy Maher 4 for 66 yds

Texas State leaders

  • Passing Brad Jackson 14 of 19, 213 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 24 for 224 yds, 4 TD; Brad Jackson 13 for 181 yds, 3 TD
  • Receiving Beau Sparks 2 for 57 yds; Torrance Burgess Jr. 3 for 52 yds

No rain through the game

84° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas State favoredColorado State favored100%Win chanceTexas StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas State favoredColorado State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left7:03 p.m.
Colorado State 0, Texas State 0 · Texas State 89% to win
no rain · 83°
Burgess 2-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at San Marcos (awos) airport, 3.8 miles away, and New Braunfels Muni Apt (was 3r5) airport, 14 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Colorado State · 2-3

Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 90th now.

Three straight losses.

L 26-56 vs Oregon State #38 of 668

lost by 30 as a 7-point underdog

L 23-41 vs BYUTop 25 #10 of 668

lost by 18 as a 17.5-point underdog

Colorado State lost 23-41 vs BYU. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 14%.

Last three games

Texas State · 2-3

Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-59 @ TexasTop 25 #5 of 668

lost by 52 as a 29.5-point underdog

Texas State lost 7-59 at Texas. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

Week by week

Texas State

Wk 1: L 7-59 at Texas▼52TexasWk 2: L 26-31 vs UTSA▼5UTSAWk 3: W 49-35 vs North Texas▲14N. TexasWk 4: W 63-10 vs Incarnate Word▲53Incarnat…Wk 5: L 29-31 at San Diego State▼2S. Diego…
  • Wk 1Lat Texas7-59
  • Wk 2Lvs UTSA26-31
  • Wk 3Wvs North Texas49-35
  • Wk 4Wvs Incarnate Word63-10
  • Wk 5Lat San Diego State29-31

Colorado State

Wk 1: W 35-13 vs Wyoming▲22WyomingWk 2: W 58-24 vs Southern Utah▲34S. UtahWk 3: L 23-41 vs BYU▼18BYUWk 4: L 45-59 at UTSA▼14UTSAWk 5: L 26-56 vs Oregon State▼30Oregon S…
  • Wk 1Wvs Wyoming35-13
  • Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
  • Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41
  • Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59
  • Wk 5Lvs Oregon State26-56

Power rating by week

Texas State is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

72-3Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Texas StateColorado State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Texas State’s passing EPA against Colorado State, 95 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Texas State’s EPA/play against Colorado State’s defense

    93 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Texas State offense, 95th percentile · Colorado State defense, 2nd

  2. Texas State’s passing EPA against Colorado State’s defense

    95 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Texas State offense, 98th percentile · Colorado State defense, 3rd

  3. Colorado State’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense

    52 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Colorado State offense, 96th percentile · Texas State defense, 44th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Colorado StateTexas State
EPA/play, offense
Colorado State · 71Texas State · 95
EPA/play, defense
Colorado State · 2Texas State · 39
Success rate, offense
Colorado State · 57Texas State · 94
Success rate, defense
Colorado State · 0Texas State · 21
Explosive-play rate, offense
Colorado State · 96Texas State · 77
Explosive-play rate, defense
Colorado State · 61Texas State · 44
Rush EPA, offense
Colorado State · 97Texas State · 89
Rush EPA, defense
Colorado State · 0Texas State · 53
Pass EPA, offense
Colorado State · 43Texas State · 98
Pass EPA, defense
Colorado State · 3Texas State · 27

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Colorado State fans are in a better mood than Texas State fans (74th vs 48th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas State favored.

  • Model · 78%
  • Line · 89%
  • Texas State fans · 48th
  • Colorado State fans · 74th

Texas State favored by 15.5 · Total 69.5

How games like this usually go

Texas State by 15.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Texas State.

opened −12.5now −15.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 67.5now 69.5

Spread: −12.5 → −15.5 · Total: 67.5 → 69.5

The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

47% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (21-24 home, 11-37 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 841 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Pac-12 standings