Utah State at Texas State
Usual during the game: 71°, between 59° and 81° in about 7 in 10 games.
Utah State's home is usually 46° on this date, 25° colder than here.
Airport reading near the stadium30 games since 2016 · How we measure
Utah State (2‑4) travels to Texas State (3‑3), with Texas State favored by 13.5. The model gives Texas State a 72% shot. Texas State’s passing offense is at the 98th percentile; Utah State’s pass defense is at the 44th.
How they got here
Last three games
Utah State · 2-4
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 76th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Texas State · 3-3
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 27th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Texas State’s passing EPA against Utah State, 54 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas State’s passing EPA against Utah State’s defense
Texas State offense, 98th percentile · Utah State defense, 44th
Utah State’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
Utah State offense, 95th percentile · Texas State defense, 45th
Texas State’s EPA/play against Utah State’s defense
Texas State offense, 95th percentile · Utah State defense, 56th
What’s at stake
Utah State
- Utah State needs 4 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 19% to get there with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Utah State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
Texas State
- Texas State needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 70% to get there with a win here, 32% with a loss.
- Texas State is coming off a 39-point win.
The series
Utah State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2012 · Utah State won the last meeting
- 2012Utah State 38-7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Utah State
The chip · vs big brotherAggie fans have spent forever as the state's third program, behind Utah and BYU, told Logan is too small and too cold to matter. They'll point to the Pac-12 invitation and ask which little brother is moving up now.
What this game touches
The years of churn before the reset. Utah State's 2021 Mountain West title gave way to staff upheaval and instability, and Bronco Mendenhall inherited a program that needed rebuilding. His first year, 2025, went 6-7 (4-4 Mountain West) with a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Washington State — a steadying season, not yet a winning one.
Texas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, and they want Kinne to prove San Marcos earned the upgrade.
What this game touches
The decade nobody noticed. Texas State reclassified to FBS in 2012 and then spent a decade as a losing-record afterthought with no bowl appearances, the kind of program outsiders used as a schedule-filler — a stretch only erased when GJ Kinne arrived in 2023 and immediately won.
Best players
Utah State
- Asher Cunningham (LB) · 51 tackles
- Brevin Hamblin (S) · 49 tackles
- Eli Wood (WR) · 472 receiving yards
Texas State
- Torrance Burgess Jr. (RB) · 838 rushing yards
- Jayden Bradley (DB) · 44 tackles
- Terrence Cooks II (LB) · 36 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Brad Jackson (QB) — Texas State’s leading passer (1,439 passing yards) takes on Utah State’s pass defense (44th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward Texas State since opening (−9.5 → −13.5).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (58.5 → 61.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are in a better mood than Texas State fans (69th vs 59th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas State favored.
- Model · 72%
- Line · 86%
- Texas State fans · 59th
- Utah State fans · 69th
Texas State favored by 13.5 · Total 61.5
Texas State by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Texas State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Utah State at Texas State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network · Bobcat Stadium.
- 81°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 17 mphwind gusts
- 96weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Bobcat Stadium: noon Saturdays score 77, 3:30 pm 75, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 77, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 75, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.
47% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (21-24 home, 11-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,127 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Texas State
- Wk 2Lvs UTSA26-31
- Wk 3Wvs North Texas49-35
- Wk 4Wvs Incarnate Word63-10
- Wk 5Lat San Diego State29-31
- Wk 7Wvs Colorado State66-27
Utah State
- Wk 2Lat Washington14-16
- Wk 3Lat Utah0-33
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
- Wk 5Lat Boise State18-37
- Wk 6Wvs Washington State17-16
Power rating by week
Texas State is rated 7.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Texas State.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −13.5 · Total: 58.5 → 61.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Texas State5th1-1
- Utah State4th1-1