Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas State a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Texas State won by 14, after dipping to 49% in the third quarter.
North Texas never had better than a 51% chance.
FinalTexas State 49-35 North TexasTexas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalNorth Texas 35-49 Texas StateNorth Texas lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 0:474th and 3Jackson 5-yd TD pass to Milliner, ties it 28-28Texas State 78% → 63% (−15)
2Q3 12:42FumbleJackson run for a 10-yd loss, fumblesTexas State 53% → 68% (+15)
The two plays that swung it
1Q2 0:474th and 3Jackson 5-yd TD pass to Milliner, ties it 28-28North Texas 22% → 37% (+15)
2Q3 12:42FumbleJackson run for a 10-yd loss, fumblesNorth Texas 47% → 32% (−15)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 3:20Jackson throws 41-yard touchdown pass to Smith, making it 28-21Touchdown hooray!r/CFB game thread
Q4 14:50Officials overturn incomplete call on Jackson pass to Stevenson for first downIdk why the incomplete didn’t get reviewedr/CFB game threadAbsolute ref job. So they don’t review the catch but they immediately review that play?r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:15Fans argue a questionable pass interference call on North TexasI want to see a single Texas state fan show me where that was PIr/CFB game threadGood game Texas State and your PAC-12 refsr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:43North Texas fans rage over holding penalty on incomplete passQuoted at the top of the page.No such thing as defending a pass, must be a flagr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:49Texas State misses a 46-yard field goal with 1:52 left in the fourth quarterThe women’s soccer team is in the top 25. They surely have someone who could help out the football teamr/CFB game thread
Texas State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas State -3), at 69% for Texas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas State or North Texas flair (123 and 158); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Every drive
Texas State scored on 7 of its 12 drives; North Texas on 5 of its 11.
Texas State’s drives are teal, North Texas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
North Texas’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
North Texas · lost1% → ▼0%
Texas State · won0% → 0%
Win the conference
North Texas · lost8% → ▲10%
Texas State · won6% → 6%
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Texas State 49, North Texas 35
Texas State covered −3 by 11. The total, 84, went over 62.5.
Team totals
North Texas
Texas State
Total yards
565
605
Passing
43 of 57, 483 yds
16 of 22, 268 yds
Rushing
30 for 82 yds
49 for 337 yds
First downs
34
30
Third down
10 of 15
6 of 10
Fourth down
1 of 4
1 of 1
Turnovers
2
0
Penalties
9 for 91 yds
7 for 80 yds
Time of possession
32:35
27:25
North Texas leaders
Passing Tayven Jackson 43 of 57, 483 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Brendon Haygood 11 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Jahiem White 16 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Justin Stevenson 10 for 122 yds; Corri Milliner 7 for 80 yds, 1 TD
Texas State leaders
Passing Brad Jackson 16 of 22, 268 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 25 for 214 yds; Davian Jackson 10 for 77 yds, 3 TD
Receiving Chris Dawn Jr. 4 for 107 yds, 2 TD; Kylen Evans 4 for 70 yds
No rain through the game
84° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 59 other games played at Bobcat Stadium (TX) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 82°, with about 7 in 10 games between 75° and 89°.
North Texas 28, Texas State 28 · Texas State 68% to win
no rain · 92°, feels like 97°
Jackson run for a 10-yd loss, fumbles
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at San Marcos (awos) airport, 3.8 miles away, and New Braunfels Muni Apt (was 3r5) airport, 14 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
North Texas · 1-1
Rated 135th in our preseason ratings, 120th now, up 15 spots.
1-1 in its last two, capped by a 38-point win over UNLV as a 3-point underdog.
Texas State is rated 9.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Texas State’s passing EPA against North Texas, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas State’s passing EPA against North Texas’s defense
Texas State offense, 98th percentile · North Texas defense, 10th
Texas State’s EPA/play against North Texas’s defense
Texas State offense, 95th percentile · North Texas defense, 42nd
North Texas’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
North Texas offense, 84th percentile · Texas State defense, 44th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
North TexasTexas State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Texas State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · Texas State won the last meeting
2024 · neutral siteTexas State 30-28
Each line is Texas State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
North Texas fans are in a better mood than Texas State fans (67th vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas State favored.
Model · 78%
Line · 60%
Texas State fans · 36th
North Texas fans · 67th
Texas State favored by 3 · Total 62.5
How games like this usually go
Texas State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 63.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 95° at kickoff.
North Texas at Texas State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos
95°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
54weather score, Rough
4thbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the fourth best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Bobcat Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 77, against 54 at 11 am.
Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.
47% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (21-24 home, 11-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Texas State 49-35 North Texas
Texas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.