The turning point:36-yd punt (Q4, 1:26). San Diego State went from 88% to 44% to win. Fans right then: “Way this game is going, Texas State will get a turnover and kick a field goal (which gets blocked and returned for a TD)” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave San Diego State a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (San Diego State was a 10-point underdog) put it at 21%.
Blocked field goalQ2 3:56Kickoff return TDSan Diego State · Q3 14:4921 unansweredSan Diego State · Q4 14:49SafetyTexas State · Q4 3:02Pick-sixSan Diego State · Q4 2:47
FinalSan Diego State 31-29 Texas StateSan Diego State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalTexas State 29-31 San Diego StateTexas State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
The five plays that swung it
1Q4 2:47InterceptionCooper 32-yd interception return TD, San Diego State leads 31-22San Diego State 47% → 89% (+42)
2Q4 1:54Jackson 40-yd TD pass to Sparks, cuts it to 31-29San Diego State 83% → 62% (−21)
3Q4 1:2636-yd puntSan Diego State 88% → 44% (−44)
4Q4 0:204th and 6Jackson 17-yd pass to SparksSan Diego State 80% → 49% (−31)
5Q4 0:014th and 14Jackson incomplete to SDSU, turnover on downsSan Diego State 73% → 100% (+27)
The five plays that swung it
1Q4 2:47InterceptionCooper 32-yd interception return TD, San Diego State leads 31-22Texas State 53% → 11% (−42)
2Q4 1:54Jackson 40-yd TD pass to Sparks, cuts it to 31-29Texas State 17% → 38% (+21)
3Q4 1:2636-yd puntTexas State 12% → 56% (+44)
4Q4 0:204th and 6Jackson 17-yd pass to SparksTexas State 20% → 51% (+31)
5Q4 0:014th and 14Jackson incomplete to SDSU, turnover on downsTexas State 27% → 0% (−27)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q4 3:37Fans argue a safety call was wrong as SDSU leads 31-22Quoted at the top of the page.WTF HOW IS THAT NOT A SAFETY LEGIT A FOOT IN THE ENDZONEr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:02Texas State scores a touchdown to trail San Diego State 31-29 with 1:54 leftI’m sorry, did they just say that SDSU has less than 100 yards of offense while scoring 28 in the second half? God damn that’s a brutal stat for Texas State.r/CFB game threadGreat TD, but it won’t be enough to win it lmaooor/CFB game thread
Q4 1:46Fans rage as CW broadcast freezes and stadium whistling distracts during Texas State driveWay this game is going, Texas State will get a turnover and kick a field goal (which gets blocked and returned for a TD)r/CFB game threadyo that person whistling is hella annoying. Wtf does that even dor/CFB game thread
Q4 0:54Texas State fans criticize the run call and clock management during the final driveThat run call was awful omgr/CFB game thread
San Diego State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas State -10), at 30% for San Diego State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a San Diego State or Texas State flair (23 and 114); both sides share one scale, regulation only.
Every drive
San Diego State scored on 4 of its 14 drives; Texas State on 5 of its 14.
San Diego State’s drives are teal, Texas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Texas State’s side
Texas State’s best moment: 36-yd punt (Q4 1:26). It lifted Texas State’s win chance by 44 points.
How Texas State fans took it: “I beg someone to ask GJ why he chokes so many games in the second half , just once.” r/CFB game thread
“We got the digital alarm clock scorebug expansion pack nice”
A fan of another team
When fans got loud
Firestorm
The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.
Texas State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.
Make the playoff
Texas State · lost2% → ▼1%
San Diego State · won1% → 1%
Win the conference
Texas State · lost13% → ▼8%
San Diego State · won10% → ▲14%
Before the game (October 3, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
San Diego State 31, Texas State 29
San Diego State covered +10 by 12. The total, 60, went over 57.5.
Team totals
Texas State
San Diego State
Total yards
565
239
Passing
27 of 44, 372 yds
15 of 23, 109 yds
Rushing
58 for 193 yds
29 for 130 yds
First downs
34
13
Third down
8 of 19
1 of 10
Fourth down
2 of 5
0 of 1
Turnovers
2
0
Penalties
8 for 51 yds
7 for 59 yds
Time of possession
40:33
19:27
Texas State leaders
Passing Brad Jackson 27 of 43, 372 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Brad Jackson 22 for 80 yds; Torrance Burgess Jr. 21 for 77 yds
Receiving Beau Sparks 10 for 153 yds, 1 TD; Chris Dawn Jr. 5 for 57 yds
San Diego State leaders
Passing Jayden Denegal 15 of 23, 109 yds
Rushing Josiah Lucas 21 for 111 yds, 2 TD; Jordan Napier 2 for 17 yds
Receiving Nathan Acevedo 4 for 47 yds; Jordan Napier 4 for 21 yds
No rain through the game
89° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Snapdragon Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 64° and 72°.
Texas State 17, San Diego State 24 · San Diego State 68% to win
no rain · 84°
Jackson 4-yd run
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at San Diego/montg airport, 2.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Texas State · 2-2
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 35th now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Texas State is rated 3.7 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Texas State’s success rate against San Diego State, 89 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas State’s success rate against San Diego State’s defense
Texas State offense, 94th percentile · San Diego State defense, 5th
Texas State’s passing EPA against San Diego State’s defense
Texas State offense, 98th percentile · San Diego State defense, 29th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 15th percentile · Texas State defense, 44th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Texas StateSan Diego State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
San Diego State fans are in a better mood than Texas State fans (88th vs 10th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas State favored.
Texas State favored by 10 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Texas State by 10, on the usual path until 14:49 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5.5 points toward Texas State.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: +4.5 → +10 · Total: 60.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.
Texas State at San Diego State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
86°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
89weather score, Mixed
Bestof the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Snapdragon Stadium that day, a 4:30 pm kickoff would have scored 59, against 89 at 7:30 pm.
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100)59Rough83Mixed89Mixed
4:30 pm6:30 pm7:30 pm
4:30 pm: 59, Rough
6:30 pm: 83, Mixed
7:30 pm: 89, Mixed (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
San Diego State is worth +3.5 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 37th percentile.
62% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (30-18 home, 20-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,149 miles to get here.
San Diego State · Q3 14:4921 unanswered
Texas State · Q4 3:02Pick-six