Utah State beats Colorado State 31-14
Team pages: Colorado State · Utah State
Utah State beat Colorado State 31-14. Share this game
We had Utah State favored. It won.
Next: Colorado State vs Boise State, Sat Nov 7 · 6:00 PM ET · Colorado State underdog by 17.5
Next: Utah State vs Fresno State, Sat Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET · Utah State underdog by 2.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah State a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah State was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
Favored the whole way: Utah State never fell below 80%.
Colorado State never had better than a 19% chance.
Utah State 31-14 Colorado State
Utah State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Colorado State 14-31 Utah StateColorado State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Utah State -9.5), at 81% for Utah State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Utah State scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Colorado State on 2 of its 9.
Utah State’s drives are teal, Colorado State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Utah State’s chance to win the conference rose from 0% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Utah State plays vs Fresno State on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Utah State 31, Colorado State 14
Utah State covered −9.5 by 7.5. The total, 45, stayed under 59.5.
| Team totals | Colorado State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 263 | 464 |
| Passing | 19 of 30, 186 yds | 18 of 23, 217 yds |
| Rushing | 26 for 77 yds | 41 for 247 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 25 |
| Third down | 4 of 11 | 7 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 35 yds | 6 for 55 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:52 | 36:08 |
Colorado State leaders
- Passing Hauss Hejny 19 of 30, 186 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Durell Robinson 16 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Terrence Smith Jr. 1 for 17 yds
- Receiving Terrence Smith Jr. 5 for 70 yds; Reginald Vick Jr 5 for 58 yds
Utah State leaders
- Passing McCae Hillstead 17 of 22, 173 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing McCae Hillstead 11 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Javen Jacobs 14 for 56 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Anthony Garcia 11 for 121 yds; McCae Hillstead 1 for 44 yds
No rain through the game
56° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 44°, with about 7 in 10 games between 36° and 54°.
October game-day temperatures at Maverik Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Logan-cache Airport, 3.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Colorado State · 3-4
Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 105th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over San Diego State as a 1.5-point underdog.
L 26-56 vs Oregon State No. 38 of 668 teams
lost by 30 as a 7-point underdog
Last three games
Utah State · 2-5
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 68th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Utah State
- Wk 3Lat Utah0-33
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
- Wk 5Lat Boise State18-37
- Wk 6Wvs Washington State17-16
- Wk 8Lat Texas State17-20
Colorado State
- Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41
- Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59
- Wk 5Lvs Oregon State26-56
- Wk 7Lat Texas State27-66
- Wk 8Wvs San Diego State56-49
Power rating by week
Utah State is rated 3.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Utah State’s explosive plays against Colorado State, 43 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Utah State’s explosive plays against Colorado State’s defense
Utah State offense, 87th percentile · Colorado State defense, 44th
Colorado State’s rushing EPA against Utah State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 95th percentile · Utah State defense, 63rd
Colorado State’s success rate against Utah State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 71st percentile · Utah State defense, 54th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Colorado State leads the series 40-38-2
80 meetings since 1902 · Colorado State won the last meeting
- 2024Colorado State 42-37
- 2023Utah State 44-24
- 2022Utah State 17-13
- 2021Utah State 26-24
- 2019Utah State 34-24
Each line is Utah State’s chance to win through that meeting. Utah State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 70%
- Line · 78%
- Utah State fans · 64th
- Colorado State fans · 49th
Utah State favored by 9.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Utah State by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 6 points toward Utah State.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −9.5 · Total: 64.5 → 59.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Utah State is worth +5.2 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 67th percentile.
62% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (26-16 home, 21-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,685 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 359 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Utah State5th1-2
- Colorado State6th1-2