Boise State at Colorado State
Usual during the game: 44°, between 33° and 57° in about 7 in 10 games. Altitude 5,014 ft above sea level.
Airport reading near the stadium30 games since 2016 · How we measure
Boise State (#20, 7‑1) travels to Colorado State (3‑5), with Boise State favored by 17.5. The model gives Boise State a 72% shot. Boise State’s offense is at the 94th percentile on efficiency; Colorado State’s defense is at the 1st.
How they got here
Last three games
Boise State · 7-1
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 12th now, up 25 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Colorado State · 3-5
Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over San Diego State as a 1.5-point underdog.
L 26-56 vs Oregon State No. 38 of 668 teams
lost by 30 as a 7-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: Colorado State’s explosive plays against Boise State, 95 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Boise State’s EPA/play against Colorado State’s defense
Boise State offense, 94th percentile · Colorado State defense, 1st
Colorado State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Colorado State offense, 95th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Boise State’s passing EPA against Colorado State’s defense
Boise State offense, 91st percentile · Colorado State defense, 2nd
What’s at stake
Boise State
- Boise State sits at 52% to make the playoff — 59% with a win here, 37% with a loss.
- Boise State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
Colorado State
- Colorado State is still shaking off a 17-point loss.
The series
Boise State leads the series 13-1
14 meetings since 2011 · Boise State won the last meeting
- 2025Boise State 49-21
- 2023Colorado State 31-30
- 2022Boise State 49-10
- 2021Boise State 28-19
- 2020Boise State 52-21
Each line is Colorado State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Boise State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsBroncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
What this game touches
The closed door. The 2006 team beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and finished as the country's only undefeated team, ranked No. 5 — and the old system had no lane for a team like Boise to play for a title.
Colorado State
The chip · vs big brotherRams fans have spent a generation watching Colorado get the cameras, the recruits, and the benefit of the doubt while Fort Collins gets called the other Colorado school. The Pac-12 move is the chance, finally, to be looked at as a peer instead of a punchline.
What this game touches
The 2025 bottom-out. The Rams went 2-10 (1-7 MW) and fired Jay Norvell on October 19 after a 2-5 start — a humiliating final Mountain West season right before the move up, with interim coach Tyson Summers closing out the year.
Best players
Boise State
- Dylan Riley (RB) · 1,049 rushing yards
- Boen Phelps (LB) · 49 tackles
- Rasean Jones (WR) · 545 receiving yards
Colorado State
- Oumar Diomande (LB) · 76 tackles
- TreShawn Moore (S) · 61 tackles
- Reginald Vick Jr (WR) · 425 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Maddux Madsen (QB) — Boise State’s leading passer (1,681 passing yards) takes on Colorado State’s pass defense (2nd percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Colorado State since opening (+19.5 → +17.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Colorado State fans are in a better mood than Boise State fans (43rd percentile vs 20th among FBS fanbases), even with Boise State favored.
- Model · 28%
- Line · 8%
- Colorado State fans · 43rd
- Boise State fans · 20th
Boise State favored by 17.5 · Total 68.5
Boise State by 17.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Boise State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Canvas Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 85 to 89
Boise State at Colorado State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 6 pm ET · Canvas Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Canvas Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 85.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 85, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Colorado State is worth +4.0 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
42% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (18-25 home, 9-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
5,014 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 606 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Colorado State
- Wk 4Lat UTSA45-59
- Wk 5Lvs Oregon State26-56
- Wk 7Lat Texas State27-66
- Wk 8Wvs San Diego State56-49
- Wk 9Lat Utah State14-31
Boise State
- Wk 4Wat Western Michigan32-7
- Wk 5Wvs Utah State37-18
- Wk 6Wat Fresno State38-31
- Wk 8Wat Washington State31-10
- Wk 9Wvs Texas State46-45
Power rating by week
Boise State is rated 13.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Colorado State.
Spread: +19.5 → +17.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Colorado State7th1-3
- Boise State1st4-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Colorado State 31, Boise State 30Oct 14, 2023
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.