Boise State at Washington State
Boise State (#21, 5‑1) at Washington State (1‑6) — Boise State is favored by 13.5. Washington State’s offense is at the 3rd percentile on success rate; Boise State’s defense is at the 74th.
How they got here
Last three games
Boise State · 5-1
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 14th now, up 23 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Washington State · 1-6
Rated 43rd in our preseason ratings, 74th now.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Washington State’s success rate against Boise State, 71 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Washington State’s success rate against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 3rd percentile · Boise State defense, 74th
Washington State’s passing EPA against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 8th percentile · Boise State defense, 60th
Washington State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 41st percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
What’s at stake
Boise State
- Boise State sits at 31% to make the playoff — 37% with a win here, 21% with a loss.
- Boise State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
Washington State
- Washington State is 3 games back in Pac-12 with 3 left to make it up.
- Washington State is still shaking off a 18-point loss.
The series
Washington State leads the series 5-2
7 meetings since 1997 · Boise State won the last meeting
- 2024Boise State 45-24
- 2017Washington State 47-44
- 2016Boise State 31-28
- 2001Washington State 41-20
- 2000Washington State 42-35
Each line is Washington State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Boise State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsBroncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
What this game touches
The closed door. The 2006 team beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and finished as the country's only undefeated team, ranked No. 5 — and the old system had no lane for a team like Boise to play for a title.
Washington State
The chip · vs big brotherCougar fans watched the bigger schools sprint to richer leagues and leave the loyal ones behind, and they have not forgotten which neighbor pulled the ladder up. They say the ones who ran abandoned the conference; the Cougs are the ones who kept it alive.
What this game touches
Left behind in the Pac-12 collapse. In 2023 the Pac-12's biggest names bolted for the Big Ten and Big 12, and Washington State — too remote, too small a market — got no invitation. WSU and Oregon State were the only two left holding the conference's name, forced to schedule against a borrowed league while everyone who ran cashed in.
Best players
Boise State
- Dylan Riley (RB) · 835 rushing yards
- Boen Phelps (LB) · 35 tackles
- Maddux Madsen (QB) · 1,296 passing yards — Heisman odds: 94th (+40000)
Washington State
- Keith Brown (LB) · 51 tackles
- Linus Zunk (DE) · 31 tackles
- Isaiah Hung (LB) · 31 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Boise State: Maddux Madsen (1,296 passing yards) and Dylan Riley (835 rushing yards).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (50.5 → 53.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Boise State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (21st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 41%
- Line · 14%
- Washington State fans · 7th
- Boise State fans · 21st
Boise State favored by 13.5 · Total 53.5
Boise State by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Boise State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Boise State at Washington State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 6 pm ET · USA Network · Gesa Field.
- 52°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 10 mphwind gusts
- 97weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Gesa Field: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 84.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 84, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Washington State is worth +5.2 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.
63% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-15 home, 15-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 221 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Washington State
- Wk 3Wvs Duquesne48-7
- Wk 4Lvs Arizona24-34
- Wk 5Lvs Fresno State6-26
- Wk 6Lat Utah State16-17
- Wk 7Lat Oregon State30-48
Boise State
- Wk 2Wvs Memphis38-20
- Wk 3Wvs South Dakota38-24
- Wk 4Wat Western Michigan32-7
- Wk 5Wvs Utah State37-18
- Wk 6Wat Fresno State38-31
Power rating by week
Boise State is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Washington State.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: +14 → +13.5 · Total: 50.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Washington State8th0-3
- Boise State2nd2-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- Washington State 47, Boise State 44Sep 9, 2017