Junior running back for Boise State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
5′10″ · 192 lb · Moreno Valley, CA · Rancho Verde HS
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
rushing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 19 car · 171 yds · 4 TD -- top 1% rushing TDs game. -- Best game: 198 rush yds, 2 TD, 18 rec yds, vs South Dakota
The play that turned itSwung Boise State from 39% to 81% to win.Boise State at Utah State · 25-24
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Junior running back for Boise State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
How he plays
Hits the crease and outruns the angle.
Yards / carry: 90th percentile.
The full scouting readAura™ · Him Watch
+5aura tax
39th pctl our rushing-value metric (wEPA) RBs · 140 qualified, n=24
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
Every angle we can check here reads about where you'd expect this season.
Also checked out fine:
Dylan Riley
Hits the crease and outruns the angle. This is his third year in the same backfield at Boise State. All-Mountain West in 2025 made it two straight seasons on the honors list. The receipt: 206 rush yds, 11 rec yds against Memphis — Week 2, 2026.
454 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 62 CARRIES
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
The role got bigger.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST · 2ND TEAM
All-Mountain West 2nd team (2025)
FRESHMAN HONORS
Freshman recognition (2024)
1 mention(s)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Spencer Danielson.
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 62 | 454 | 7.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 195 | 1,125 | 5.8 | 10 | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 22 | 135 | 6.1 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 279 | 1,714 | 6.1 | 14 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Boise State | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 | -- |
| 2025 | Boise State | 15 | 149 | 9.9 | 2 | -- |
| 2024 | Boise State | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 23 | 205 | 8.9 | 2 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 27-34@ Oregon | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 2 | W 38-20vs Memphis | 19 | 206 | 10.8 | 0 | 71 | Season-high 206 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 38-24vs South Dakota | 26 | 198 | 7.6 | 2 | 83 | 198-yard day |
| Total | 62 | 454 | 7.1 | 2 | 83 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2026
W 38–24
vs South Dakota
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +198 rushing yards, +2 rushing TD, +2 catches.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Spencer Danielson, all run-leaning offenses — 23-8 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: yards / carry (90th percentile). Strength: epa / carry (83rd percentile). Concern: fumbles lost (26th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Rush profile · Shape, efficiency, and ball security
How he gets his yards, and how often it works
Success rate
49%61 carriesFumble rate
1.6%1 of 62 carries · 1 lostStuffed
0 or fewer ydsGrind
1–3 ydsChunk
4–9 ydsExplosive
10+ yds7.3 yds/carry on 62 carries · 18% explosive (10+ yds) · 49% success rate.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 202 | 9.2 | 1.0 |
| Road1g | 50.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 151 | 7.1 | 0.7 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
40.7%
88 pass / 128 run
Plays / game
72.0
3 games
Team sack rate
4.2%
96 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
On the two-deep and pushing for snaps.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-Pac-12
Based on 2025: #3 of 34 Mountain West RBs — his program moves to the Pac-12 for 2026
49% estimated, 95% confidence interval 43–54%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player. The base rate was measured on players who stayed in the same conference; this estimate is not adjusted for the move to the Pac-12.
Play style
Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Kelley Joiner Jr.’s 2021 season.
Matches Kelley on
Differs from Kelley on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Journey Wyche’s path through Chattanooga.
Journey Wyche
Matches Journey on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Kelley Joiner Jr.'s junior season at South Florida (2021).
Matches Kelley on
Differs from Kelley on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #128 this season.
CAREER HONORS Maxwell Award Preseason Watch List (2026) Pac-12 Preseason Impact List (2026) Phil Steele Preseason All-Pac-12 First Team (2026) Athlon Sports Preseason All-Pac-12 First Team (2026) All-Mountain West Second Team (2025) 2x Phil Steele All-Mountain West Second Team (2024, 2025) 2x…
2 more on the roster · Boise State team page