The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Spencer Danielson

Spencer Danielson held Boise State at Power Program III for 4 seasons.

24–8

2023–now · 1 stint

In his own words

Do we have what everybody else has? No, but I do know we have more than enough
FOX Sports · Sep 4, 2026 · the day before Boise State's 2026 opener

The reality is, we haven’t done anything yet

ArbiteronlineAug 26, 202610 days before the opener

First and foremost, he’s an elite human being

ArbiteronlineMay 8, 2026

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Boise State, 4 seasons (active)

+1.1

Power Program III → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Boise State6.3pt#208 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–1 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

0–1

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

4–2

66.7% · margin ≤8

Buyout owed

$6,650,025

bigger than 47% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Fresno State0–10%

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0–5 0.0%

National Program

3–1 75.0%

Regional Program

14–1 93.3%

Coaching career

2023–now

Boise Statecaretaker🏆 coach of the year

Power Program III → Power Program III

Spencer Danielson held Boise State at Power Program III for 4 seasons.

3rd-best Boise State tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+29.9 pts

#14 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+13.3 pts

#56 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Season	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3–1	12–2	9–5	0–0
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#67	#64	#62	#51
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	39.9	43.1	46.2	40.7
Coordinators
OC	Bush Hamdan	Dirk Koetter / Nate Potter	Matt Miller / Nate Potter	Nate Potter / Zak Hill
DC	Kane Ioane / Spencer Danielson	Erik Chinander / Tyler Stockton	Erik Chinander / Tyler Stockton	Erik Chinander / Terrence Brown
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	84	91	58	56
Defense	54	58	73	43
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	37.5	35.5	38.6	27.6
Red-zone pass%	26.3	35.3	31.2	38.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	17.1	40.5	40.5	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-29

#125 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 239 lbs

across 32 of 40 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.9 lbs

#184 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#215 of 255 · less than most

Top states: CA (14), TX (3), FL (2), CO (2), NJ (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.5

position-weighted

Net

-1.7

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Malachi Nelson (QB) from USC

Biggest loss: Hank Bachmeier (QB) to Louisiana Tech

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Dirk Koetter / co-Nate Potter → co-Matt Miller / Nate Potter · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 35.5% → 38.6% (+3.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 58% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: co-Matt Miller / Nate Potter → Nate Potter / co-Zak Hill · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.6% → 27.6% (-11.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Erik Chinander / co-Tyler Stockton → Erik Chinander / co-Terrence Brown · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

204 lbs

6′0″ avg · #623 of 767 · less than most

Running back

207 lbs

5′10″ avg · #413 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #274 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

240 lbs

6′4″ avg · #567 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

304 lbs

6′4″ avg · #599 of 779 · less than most

D-line

284 lbs

6′3″ avg · #391 of 753 · a typical amount

Edge

251 lbs

6′3″ avg · #110 of 188 · a typical amount

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′2″ avg · #492 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

190 lbs

6′1″ avg · #416 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

80%

#146 of 188 stints

Grows Linebacker from high school

88%

#191 of 225 stints

Postseason detail2023: Lost to UCLA 22–35 Starco Brands LA Bowl2024: Lost to Penn State 14–31 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2025: Lost to Washington 10–38 Bucked Up LA Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: JL Skinner (2023), Scott Matlock (2023), Ashton Jeanty (2025), Ahmed Hassanein (2025), Kage Casey (2026)

Coach of the Year: Mountain West Coach of the Year (2024)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Ashton Jeanty (2023), Ashton Jeanty (2024)

24–8