The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q3 3:17Jackson runs for a touchdown as Texas State cuts Boise State lead to three
Boise State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Boise State -10), at 85% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Boise State or Texas State flair (616 and 121); both sides share one scale, regulation only.
Every drive
Boise State scored on 7 of its 14 drives; Texas State on 6 of its 13.
Boise State’s drives are teal, Texas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Texas State fans
kinda“This kinda is a mirror game in that regard, we are horrible at completing games”
missing“Had more adults trick or treating this year than kids, is there some sort of trend I’m missing? We got absolutely cleaned out lol”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, don, back, coach.
The winner fell to 9%.
What it cost
Boise State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 42% to 48%.
Make the playoff
Texas State · lost2% → ▼1%
Boise State · won42% → ▲48%
Win the conference
Texas State · lost11% → ▼6%
Boise State · won50% → ▲53%
Before the game (October 31, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Texas State plays at Oregon State on Sat Nov 7 with a 1% chance to make the playoff. Boise State plays at Colorado State on Sat Nov 7 with a 48% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Boise State 46, Texas State 45
Texas State covered +10 by 9. The total, 91, went over 63.5.
Team totals
Texas State
Boise State
Total yards
429
484
Passing
23 of 39, 327 yds
32 of 46, 367 yds
Rushing
24 for 102 yds
40 for 117 yds
First downs
16
29
Third down
6 of 15
9 of 16
Fourth down
1 of 2
3 of 3
Turnovers
1
2
Penalties
8 for 61 yds
5 for 40 yds
Time of possession
22:59
37:01
Texas State leaders
Passing Brad Jackson 23 of 38, 327 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Brad Jackson 9 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Torrance Burgess Jr. 11 for 33 yds
Receiving Zechariah Sample 2 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Chris Dawn Jr. 5 for 71 yds, 1 TD
Boise State leaders
Passing Maddux Madsen 24 of 33, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dylan Riley 25 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Terrious Favors 1 for 19 yds
Receiving Rasean Jones 9 for 117 yds, 3 TD; Akeem Wright 8 for 116 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
49° at kickoff · 0.01 in of rain · wind 5 mph from the northwest, gusts to 13
Texas State 45, Boise State 40 · Boise State 36% to win
no rain · wind 2 mph from the north-northwest · 48°
Jackson 72-yd TD pass to Sample, Texas State goes ahead 45-40
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Boise Municipal airport, 3.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Texas State · 4-3
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Texas State offense, 70th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Boise State’s passing EPA against Texas State’s defense
Boise State offense, 91st percentile · Texas State defense, 18th
Boise State’s EPA/play against Texas State’s defense
Boise State offense, 94th percentile · Texas State defense, 33rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Texas StateBoise State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Boise State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Boise State favored by 10 · Total 63.5
How games like this usually go
Boise State by 10, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Texas State.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −12.5 → −10 · Total: 65.5 → 63.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Boise State is worth +3.6 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 39th percentile.
79% at home, 70% on the road against FBS opponents (38-10 home, 35-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,380 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Texas State · Q4 13:48Pick-six
Boise State 46-45 Texas State