The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Herm Edwards

Followed Todd Graham. Herm Edwards held Arizona State at National Program I for 5 seasons.

26–20

2018–2022 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Arizona State, 5 seasons

−0.9

National Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Arizona State16.6pt#32 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–0 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Clay Helton.

Rivalry record

4–0

100.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

8–10

44.4% · margin ≤8

Rivalry ledger

Arizona4–0100%

The toughest matchup

vs. Clay Helton1–2

3 meetings, 2018–2020

’18 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’19 L’20 L · blew a 13-pt lead

33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

6–9 40.0%

National Program

7–4 63.6%

Regional Program

7–3 70.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.11

#105 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.01

#158 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2018–2022

Arizona Statecaretaker

National Program I → National Program I

Herm Edwards held Arizona State at National Program I for 5 seasons.

11th-best Arizona State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+1.8 pts

#103 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-9.0 pts

#141 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Todd Graham (2012–2017) · succeeded by Kenny Dillingham (2023–2026).

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	7–6	8–5	2–2	8–5	1–2
Postseason	L bowl	W CFP	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#36	#28	#24	#48	#101
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.1	45.5	34.5	38.7	51.1
Coordinators
OC	Rob Likens	Rob Likens	Zak Hill	Zak Hill	Glenn Thomas
DC	Danny Gonzales	Danny Gonzales	Antonio Pierce / Marvin Lewis	Antonio Pierce	Donnie Henderson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	70	17	76	79	59
Defense	33	48	70	80	13
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	40.5	42.8	36.3	32.8	39.3
Red-zone pass%	29.7	33.6	29.2	32.6	40.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	24.1	—	35.7	41.9

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-19

#125 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 257 lbs

across 15 of 20 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+11.0 lbs

#2 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#59 of 255 · more than most

Top states: CA (4), AZ (2), AL (2), NC (1), GA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.2

position-weighted

Net

-4.8

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Emory Jones (QB) from Florida

Biggest loss: Jayden Daniels (QB) to LSU

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Rob Likens → Zak Hill · 2020the offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 41.6% → 34.5% (-7.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 60% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Danny Gonzales → co-Antonio Pierce / co-Marvin Lewis · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: co-Antonio Pierce / co-Marvin Lewis → Antonio Pierce · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

205 lbs

6′3″ avg · #600 of 767 · less than most

Running back

204 lbs

6′0″ avg · #510 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

205 lbs

6′2″ avg · #33 of 791 · more than most

Tight end

258 lbs

6′6″ avg · #38 of 731 · more than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′5″ avg · #553 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

287 lbs

6′3″ avg · #313 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

230 lbs

6′2″ avg · #284 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #421 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys D-line via the portal

67%

#27 of 239 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

83%

#185 of 224 stints

Grows Running back from high school

83%

#186 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2018: Lost to Fresno State 20–31 Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl2019: Beat Florida State 20–14 CFP2021: Lost to Wisconsin 13–20 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Kalen Ballage (2018), Christian Sam (2018), Sam Jones (2018), N'Keal Harry (2019), Renell Wren (2019), Brandon Aiyuk (2020), Eno Benjamin (2020), Frank Darby (2021) + 5 more

26–20