The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Clay Helton

Followed Chad Lunsford. Clay Helton held Georgia Southern at Regional Program III for 5 seasons.

Peak, then fade
73–49
2013–now · 2 stints
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In his own words

It’s a good start, but there’s a lot to grow from too
Thegeorgeanne · · 3 days after Georgia Southern's 2026 opener
The first quarter was about as good as you could draw
Thegeorgeanne3 days after the 31–0 opener
Guys were playing in the backfield, they were playing ultra aggressive
Thegeorgeanne3 days after the 31–0 opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUSCGEORGIA SOUTHERNDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUSC, 2013: 1-0, Blue Blood2013USC, 2015: 5-4, Blue Blood2015USC, 2016: 10-3, Power Program I2016USC, 2017: 11-3, Power Program I2017USC, 2018: 5-7, Power Program I2018USC, 2019: 8-5, Power Program I2019USC, 2020: 5-1, Power Program I2020USC, 2021: 1-1, Power Program I2021-7.5Georgia Southern, 2022: 6-7, Regional Program III2022Georgia Southern, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program IV2023Georgia Southern, 2024: 8-5, Regional Program IV2024Georgia Southern, 2025: 7-6, Regional Program III2025Georgia Southern, 2026: in progress, Regional Program III2026-1.3One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

USC, 8 seasons
−7.5
Blue Blood → Power Program I.
Georgia Southern, 5 seasons (active)
−1.3
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%70%USC2013–2021▲ 8.7ptGeorgia Southern2022–2026▲ 4.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
USC12.1pt#93 of 258 · a typical amount
Georgia Southern18.1pt#21 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

11–7 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Brian Kelly.

Rivalry record
11–7
61.1% · 4 rivals
One-score games
26–17
60.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$3,159,375
bigger than 34% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Notre Dame1–420%
UCLA4–180%
App State4–180%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Brian Kelly1–4
5 meetings, 2015–2019
’15 L · blew a 7-pt lead’16 W · erased a 4-pt deficit’17 L’18 L · blew a 10-pt lead’19 L · blew a 3-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
15–21 41.7%
National Program
25–10 71.4%
Regional Program
24–13 64.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.26
#67 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.36
#307 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
Georgia Southerncaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Clay Helton held Georgia Southern at Regional Program III for 5 seasons.

5th-best Georgia Southern tenure of 5 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+20.9 pts
#37 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-24.9 pts
#190 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chad Lunsford (2017–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record6–76–78–57–60–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#108#100#91#80#89
Style — pass rate
Pass rate62.260.550.348.366.4
Coordinators
OCBryan EllisBryan EllisRyan AplinRyan AplinRyan Aplin
DCWill HarrisBrandon BaileyBrandon BaileyBrandon BaileyMike Mutz
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7752497236
Defense1112321496
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%59.758.050.045.763.5
Red-zone pass%49.257.545.936.035.0
4th-down go%opp. territory23.929.525.037.9
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
71
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
88
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-17
#81 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 227 lbs
across 55 of 71 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.1 lbs
#235 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#18 of 255 · more than most
Top states: GA (20), FL (6), NC (5), CA (4), TX (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.9
position-weighted
Net
-2.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Kyle Toole (QB) from Troy
Biggest loss: James Graham (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Bryan Ellis → Ryan Aplin · 2024the system held
64th pct61st pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 58.8% → 47.9% (-11.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 41% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Will Harris → Brandon Bailey · 2023
11th pct12th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brandon Bailey → Mike Mutz · 2026
14th pct96th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
209 lbs
6′2″ avg · #495 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
203 lbs
5′10″ avg · #558 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
188 lbs
5′11″ avg · #606 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
232 lbs
6′3″ avg · #695 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
296 lbs
6′3″ avg · #740 of 779 · less than most
D-line
267 lbs
6′2″ avg · #694 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
221 lbs
6′1″ avg · #682 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #490 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
12%
#36 of 146 stints
Grows Edge from high school
90%
#189 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Buffalo 21–23 Camellia Bowl2023: Lost to Ohio 21–41 Myrtle Beach Bowl2024: Lost to Sam Houston 26–31 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2025: Beat App State 29–10 JLab Birmingham Bowl
27–25
2013–2021
USCinheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Clay Helton inherited a Blue Blood USC and won with it.

5th-best USC tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-3.9 pts
#128 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-23.2 pts
#184 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Lincoln Riley (2022–2026).

Season201320142015201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record6–29–45–410–311–35–78–55–13–7
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowlCFP lossL bowl
Recruiting rank#10#2#10#4#4#20#55#8
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.746.847.847.550.456.858.855.5
Coordinators
OCClay HeltonClay Helton / Tee MartinTee MartinTee MartinTee MartinGraham HarrellGraham HarrellGraham Harrell
DCJustin WilcoxJustin WilcoxClancy PendergastClancy PendergastClancy PendergastClancy PendergastTodd OrlandoTodd Orlando
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8172877946845048
Defense6565595751185714
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%52.545.644.640.042.457.259.955.3
Red-zone pass%51.338.848.136.852.657.050.048.5
4th-down go%opp. territory39.550.021.639.132.520.050.025.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
9
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
9
left via the portal
Net portal flow
0
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 233 lbs
across 5 of 9 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.4 lbs
#10 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#21 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (4), LA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
29.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
28.6
position-weighted
Net
+0.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Malcolm Epps (TE) from Texas
Biggest loss: Abdul-Malik McClain (EDGE) to Jackson State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tee Martin → Graham Harrell · 2019the system held
62nd pct67th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 41.2% → 58.5% (+17.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 86% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
218 lbs
6′3″ avg · #217 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
217 lbs
6′0″ avg · #90 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
202 lbs
6′2″ avg · #60 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
252 lbs
6′5″ avg · #126 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′5″ avg · #99 of 779 · more than most
D-line
287 lbs
6′4″ avg · #313 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
240 lbs
6′2″ avg · #33 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #329 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
89%
#162 of 188 stints
Grows Safety from high school
80%
#177 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Nebraska 45–42 National University Holiday Bowl2015: Lost to Wisconsin 21–23 National Funding Holiday Bowl2016: Beat Penn State 52–49 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual2017: Lost to Ohio State 7–24 CFP2019: Lost to Iowa 24–49 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

40 NFL Draft picks: Robert Woods (2013), T.J. McDonald (2013), Matt Barkley (2013), Khaled Holmes (2013), Marqise Lee (2014), Marcus Martin (2014), Devon Kennard (2014), Leonard Williams (2015) + 32 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Talanoa Hufanga (2020)

46–24

Defining games during this era

2017 Rose Bowl · USC 52, Penn State 492017 Pac-12 Championship · USC 31, Stanford 28