App State at Georgia Southern
App State (5‑2) at Georgia Southern (3‑4) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Georgia Southern (67%). App State’s rushing offense is at the 21st percentile; Georgia Southern’s run defense is at the 79th.
This is Deeper Than Hate — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
App State · 5-2
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 104th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over James Madison as a 12.5-point underdog.
W 34-31 vs James Madison #41 of 668
won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog
Last three games
Georgia Southern · 3-4
Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 70th now, up 29 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern #219 of 668
won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: App State’s rushing EPA against Georgia Southern, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
App State’s rushing EPA against Georgia Southern’s defense
App State offense, 21st percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 79th
Georgia Southern’s explosive plays against App State’s defense
Georgia Southern offense, 43rd percentile · App State defense, 77th
App State’s success rate against Georgia Southern’s defense
App State offense, 48th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 66th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
App State leads the series 14-10
24 meetings since 2003 · Georgia Southern has won the last 3
- 2025 · neutral siteGeorgia Southern 29-10
- 2025Georgia Southern 25-23
- 2024Georgia Southern 29-20
- 2023App State 55-27
- 2022Georgia Southern 51-48
Each line is Georgia Southern’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia Southern is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
App State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFans here believe the chip is one game wide and forty years deep: App State walked into Michigan Stadium in 2007 and won, and the blue bloods have spent every year since pretending it was an accident. Boone hasn't forgotten, and won't let them.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse — and the G5 ceiling underneath it. A program built on punching up went 5-8 in Dowell Loggains' first season — a 4-2 start, then six losses in seven — a stumble that fed the oldest fear in Boone: that the giant-killer's best days were the mountain-FCS ones.
Georgia Southern
The chip · vs big brotherStatesboro is two hours from Athens and a world away from the recruiting machine that never once scheduled them; Eagles fans wear the snub like a letterman jacket and would trade a season to take Georgia's measure for one Saturday.
What this game touches
The dynasty that gets an asterisk. Eagles fans grew up on Erk Russell and six rings; the FBS world hears 'six titles' and adds the silent qualifier — at a lower level. The 2017-2021 stretch of losing seasons after the move up nearly proved the doubters' point before Clay Helton steadied it.
Best players
App State
- Colton Phares (LB) · 51 tackles
- Kaleb Purdy (DB) · 43 tackles
- Malachi Singleton (QB) · 1,700 passing yards
Georgia Southern
- Max Johnson (QB) · 1,601 passing yards
- Brandon Tyson (LB) · 40 tackles
- Jakyri Jones (DB) · 38 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Georgia Southern fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (85th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Allen E. Paulson Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
App State at Georgia Southern · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Allen E. Paulson Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Georgia Southern is worth +6.5 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.
63% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 103 games — outside the ±5.3 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 263 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Georgia Southern
- Wk 3Lat Jacksonville State27-31
- Wk 4Lvs Houston28-42
- Wk 5Wat Coastal Carolina31-24
- Wk 6Lvs James Madison24-27
- Wk 7Wat Old Dominion23-15
App State
- Wk 3Wvs Charlotte26-21
- Wk 4Lat NC State31-41
- Wk 6Lvs Old Dominion3-10
- Wk 7Wat Coastal Carolina35-32
- Wk 8Wvs James Madison34-31
Power rating by week
Georgia Southern is rated 3.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Georgia Southern4th2-1
- App State3rd2-1
Last meeting in our History pages
- Georgia Southern 29, App State 10Jlab Birmingham Bowl · Dec 29, 2025
Our History pages cover 12 of their meetings since 2015.