Old Dominion upsets App State 10-3
Team pages: Old Dominion · App State
Old Dominion beat App State 10-3 as an 8.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had App State favored. Old Dominion won.
How it swung
The turning point: James 2-yd TD run, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-3 (Q4, 9:30). Old Dominion went from 34% to 76% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Old Dominion a 26% chance, and the closing betting line (Old Dominion was a 8.5-point underdog) put it at 25%.
Old Dominion · Q3 7:18Old Dominion 10-3 App State
Old Dominion wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.4 in of rainApp State 3-10 Old DominionApp State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.4 in of rainThe two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:11InterceptionSingleton intercepted by Drummer at the ODU42, returned 16 yardsOld Dominion 19% → 33% (+14)
- 2Q4 9:30James 2-yd TD run, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-3Old Dominion 34% → 76% (+42)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:11InterceptionSingleton intercepted by Drummer at the ODU42, returned 16 yardsApp State 81% → 67% (−14)
- 2Q4 9:30James 2-yd TD run, Old Dominion goes ahead 10-3App State 66% → 24% (−42)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (App State -8.5), at 21% for Old Dominion (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Old Dominion scored on 1 of its 15 drives; App State on 1 of its 14.
Old Dominion’s drives are teal, App State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From App State’s side
App State’s best moment: 66-yd punt (Q4 6:48). It lifted App State’s win chance by 14 points.
The winner fell to 15%.
What it cost
App State’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Old Dominion 10, App State 3
Old Dominion covered +8.5 by 15.5. The total, 13, stayed under 45.5.
| Team totals | Old Dominion | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 304 | 158 |
| Passing | 10 of 20, 97 yds | 7 of 27, 66 yds |
| Rushing | 61 for 207 yds | 28 for 92 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 9 |
| Third down | 7 of 20 | 1 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
| Penalties | 6 for 35 yds | 6 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 38:50 | 21:10 |
Old Dominion leaders
- Passing Quinn Henicle 10 of 20, 97 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Devin Roche 23 for 101 yds; Quinn Henicle 26 for 88 yds
- Receiving Kendall Harris 3 for 50 yds; TJ Johnson 2 for 16 yds
App State leaders
- Passing Malachi Singleton 5 of 23, 72 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jaquari Lewis 10 for 41 yds; Henry Hasselbeck 5 for 27 yds
- Receiving Jamel Howse 1 for 25 yds; Chris Lofton 1 for 20 yds
Rain through most of the game
51° at kickoff · 0.4 in of rain
October game-day temperatures at Kidd Brewer Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Watauga_cnty_hosp_helip airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Old Dominion · 1-4
Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.
Three straight losses.
Last 4 games
App State · 3-1
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 99th now.
3-1 in its last 4, including a 3-point win over East Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog.
Week by week
App State
- Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3
- Wk 2Wat East Carolina27-24
- Wk 3Wvs Charlotte26-21
- Wk 4Lat NC State31-41
Old Dominion
- Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10
- Wk 2Lat Virginia Tech21-44
- Wk 3Lvs East Carolina17-20
- Wk 4Lvs James Madison20-46
- Wk 5Lat Georgia State10-42
Power rating by week
App State is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s EPA/play against App State, 55 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Old Dominion’s EPA/play against App State’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · App State defense, 55th
Old Dominion’s rushing EPA against App State’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 1st percentile · App State defense, 56th
App State’s explosive plays against Old Dominion’s defense
App State offense, 50th percentile · Old Dominion defense, 82nd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
App State leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 2015 · Old Dominion won the last meeting
- 2025Old Dominion 24-21
- 2024App State 28-20
- 2023Old Dominion 28-21
- 2022App State 27-14
- 2016App State 31-7
Each line is App State’s chance to win through that meeting. App State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (99th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
App State favored by 8.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
App State by 8.5, on the usual path until 10:12 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Old Dominion.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −8.5 · Total: 49.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
App State is worth +4.9 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
77% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (33-10 home, 24-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 302 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- App State7th0-0
- Old Dominion13th0-2