Georgia State routs Old Dominion 42-10

Team pages: Old Dominion · Georgia State

Old Dominion1-410
Georgia State4-142Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. · Crowd 17,854ESPN+

Georgia State routed Old Dominion 42-10.

We had Georgia State favored. It won.

Next: Old Dominion beat App State 10-3, Sat Oct 10

Next: Georgia State lost to James Madison 49-22, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgia State a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgia State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

80-yard TD passGeorgia State · Q1 2:59Punt return TDOld Dominion · Q3 6:41
FinalGeorgia State 42-10 Old DominionGeorgia State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Georgia StateWon42-1012+13+14ScoresPunt return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Georgia StateWon42-1012ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Georgia StateLowest 0%Lost10-4212−13−14ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Georgia StateLowest 0%Lost10-4212ScoresPunt return TD

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:4030-yd puntGeorgia State 46% → 59% (+13)
  2. 2Q1 2:59Brown 80-yd TD pass to Avery, Georgia State leads 14-3Georgia State 72% → 86% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:4030-yd puntOld Dominion 54% → 41% (−13)
  2. 2Q1 2:59Brown 80-yd TD pass to Avery, Georgia State leads 14-3Old Dominion 28% → 14% (−14)
Georgia State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Georgia State -1.5), at 63% for Georgia State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Georgia State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 5:40Brown 9-yd TD pass to MurrayGeorgia State goes ahead 7-3Q1, 5:40 · Georgia State 7, Old Dominion 3▲3%Georgia State’s chance to win, 67% to 70%▲3%Georgia State’s chance to win, 67% to 70%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 2:59Brown 80-yd TD pass to AveryGeorgia State leads 14-3Q1, 2:59 · Georgia State 14, Old Dominion 3▲14%Georgia State’s chance to win, 72% to 86%▲14%Georgia State’s chance to win, 72% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 10:21Brown 29-yd TD pass to StoneGeorgia State leads 21-3Q2, 10:21 · Georgia State 21, Old Dominion 3▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 93% to 95%▲2%Georgia State’s chance to win, 93% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 5:41Brown 28-yd TD pass to DorseyGeorgia State leads 28-3Q2, 5:41 · Georgia State 28, Old Dominion 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 11:59Brown 35-yd TD pass to DupreeGeorgia State leads 35-3Q3, 11:59 · Georgia State 35, Old Dominion 335-3score after the play35-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 10:27Brown 14-yd TD pass to DorseyGeorgia State leads 42-3Q3, 10:27 · Georgia State 42, Old Dominion 342-3score after the play42-3score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 6:41Roche 78-yd punt return TDcuts it to 42-10Q3, 6:41 · Georgia State 42, Old Dominion 10▲3%Georgia State’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%Georgia State’s chance to win, 96% to 99%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Georgia State scored on 6 of its 15 drives; Old Dominion on 1 of its 13.

Georgia State’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Georgia State: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 60FumbleOld Dominion: Field goal, from 40 yards out to 3Field goalGeorgia State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 82 yards out to 73PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 31Missed FGQ2Georgia State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 87PuntOld Dominion: Turned over on downs, from 58 yards out to 7DownsGeorgia State: End of half, from 93 yards out to 75End of halfQ3Old Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Fumble, from 79 yards out to 77FumbleGeorgia State: Touchdown, from 15 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntGeorgia State: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 79 yards out to 78Punt TDGeorgia State: Punt, from 72 yards out to 57PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 71 yards out to 51PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 60PuntQ4Old Dominion: Punt, from 80 yards out to 78PuntGeorgia State: Punt, from 74 yards out to 50PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 80 yards out to 75PuntGeorgia State: End of game, from 64 yards out to 19End of game

What it cost

Georgia State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.

Make the playoff

Old Dominion · lost0% → 0%
Georgia State · won1% → ▲2%

Win the conference

Old Dominion · lost0% → 0%
Georgia State · won8% → ▲9%8%▲ 9%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Georgia State 42, Old Dominion 10

Georgia State covered −1.5 by 30.5. The total, 52, went over 51.5.

Old DominionGeorgia StateTotal yardsOld Dominion 146Georgia State 470146470Passing yardsOld Dominion 79Georgia State 28379283Rushing yardsOld Dominion 67Georgia State 18767187First downsOld Dominion 11Georgia State 231123TurnoversOld Dominion 1Georgia State 111Time of possessionOld Dominion 25:28Georgia State 34:3225:2834:32
Team totalsOld DominionGeorgia State
Total yards146470
Passing13 of 28, 79 yds15 of 24, 283 yds
Rushing34 for 67 yds44 for 187 yds
First downs1123
Third down5 of 177 of 14
Fourth down0 of 11 of 1
Turnovers11
Penalties3 for 45 yds7 for 75 yds
Time of possession25:2834:32

Old Dominion leaders

  • Passing Quinn Henicle 8 of 15, 49 yds
  • Rushing Devin Roche 9 for 37 yds; Trey Hall 5 for 11 yds
  • Receiving Josh Rodriguez 3 for 22 yds; Leon Haughton Jr. 2 for 14 yds

Georgia State leaders

  • Passing Cameran Brown 14 of 20, 284 yds, 6 TD
  • Rushing Qwantavius Wiggins 15 for 87 yds; DJ Murray Jr. 5 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Derrick Avery Jr. 2 for 91 yds, 1 TD; DJ Riles 3 for 57 yds

No rain through the game

84° at kickoff · 0.04 in of rain by radar over the stadium

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 52 other games played at Center Parc Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 78°.

October game-day temperatures at Center Parc Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredOld Dominion favored100%Win chanceGeorgia StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportThunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Georgia State favoredOld Dominion favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportThunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:48 left3:33 p.m.
Old Dominion 0, Georgia State 0 · Georgia State 63% to win
no rain · 84°
Brown 5-yd pass to Wiggins
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Atlanta International Airport, 7.9 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Old Dominion · 1-3

Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 90th now.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-46 vs James Madison #48 of 668

lost by 26 as a 7-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 20-46 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 36%.

L 17-20 vs East Carolina #82 of 668

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Old Dominion lost 17-20 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low 22%, high 88%.

L 21-44 @ Virginia Tech #43 of 668

lost by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 21-44 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 31-10 vs Norfolk State #247 of 668

won by 21 as a 41.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 31-10 vs Norfolk State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

Georgia State · 3-1

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 117th now, up 38 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, including a 14-point win over Kennesaw State as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 35-14 vs Northern Illinois #124 of 668

won by 21 as an 8.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 35-14 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 84%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

L 30-44 @ UCF #94 of 668

lost by 14 as a 17.5-point underdog

Georgia State lost 30-44 at UCF. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 30%.

W 31-17 @ Kennesaw State #149 of 668

won by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

Georgia State won 31-17 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 24%, low 23%, high better than 99%.

W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T #264 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Georgia State won 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Georgia State

Wk 1: W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T▲49N. Carolina…Wk 2: W 31-17 at Kennesaw State▲14Kennesaw St.Wk 3: L 30-44 at UCF▼14UCFWk 4: W 35-14 vs Northern Illinois▲21N. Illinois
  • Wk 1Wvs North Carolina A&T59-10
  • Wk 2Wat Kennesaw State31-17
  • Wk 3Lat UCF30-44
  • Wk 4Wvs Northern Illinois35-14

Old Dominion

Wk 1: W 31-10 vs Norfolk State▲21Norfolk St.Wk 2: L 21-44 at Virginia Tech▼23Virginia Te…Wk 3: L 17-20 vs East Carolina▼3E. CarolinaWk 4: L 20-46 vs James Madison▼26James Madis…
  • Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10
  • Wk 2Lat Virginia Tech21-44
  • Wk 3Lvs East Carolina17-20
  • Wk 4Lvs James Madison20-46

Power rating by week

Old Dominion is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

2-3-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Georgia StateOld Dominion

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s passing EPA against Georgia State, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Old Dominion’s passing EPA against Georgia State’s defense

    87 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 3rd percentile · Georgia State defense, 90th

  2. Old Dominion’s EPA/play against Georgia State’s defense

    68 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · Georgia State defense, 68th

  3. Georgia State’s explosive plays against Old Dominion’s defense

    34 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia State offense, 48th percentile · Old Dominion defense, 82nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Old DominionGeorgia State
EPA/play, offense
Old Dominion · 0Georgia State · 74
EPA/play, defense
Old Dominion · 85Georgia State · 68
Success rate, offense
Old Dominion · 0Georgia State · 77
Success rate, defense
Old Dominion · 80Georgia State · 71
Explosive-play rate, offense
Old Dominion · 53Georgia State · 48
Explosive-play rate, defense
Old Dominion · 82Georgia State · 66
Rush EPA, offense
Old Dominion · 1Georgia State · 50
Rush EPA, defense
Old Dominion · 82Georgia State · 39
Pass EPA, offense
Old Dominion · 3Georgia State · 92
Pass EPA, defense
Old Dominion · 75Georgia State · 90

The series

Old Dominion leads the series 6-1

7 meetings since 2010 · Old Dominion has won the last 3

Georgia State wonOld Dominion won2010: Old Dominion by 142011: Old Dominion by 232012: Old Dominion by 262022: Georgia State by 142023: Old Dominion by 12024: Old Dominion by 72025: Old Dominion by 1720102025
  • 2025Old Dominion 27-10Georgia State lost 10-27 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 19%.
  • 2024Old Dominion 21-14Georgia State lost 14-21 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 59%, low 3%, high 66%.
  • 2023Old Dominion 25-24Georgia State lost 24-25 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 48%, low under 1%, high 98%.
  • 2022Georgia State 31-17Georgia State won 31-17 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 62%, low 35%, high better than 99%.
  • 2012 · neutral siteOld Dominion 53-27

Each line is Georgia State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (96th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 63% · Line 55%Georgia State fans · 96thOld Dominion fans · 1stOld DominionGeorgia State

Georgia State favored by 1.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia State by 1.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Georgia State.

opened +1.5now −1.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 52.5now 51.5

Spread: +1.5 → −1.5 · Total: 52.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 85° at kickoff.

Old Dominion at Georgia State · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta

  • 85°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 73weather score, Rough

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 9 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Center Parc Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 8 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 73 at 3:30 pm.

  • 11 am: 70, Rough
  • noon: 78, Mixed
  • 12:45 pm: 72, Rough
  • 2 pm: 70, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 73, Rough (this game)
  • 4:15 pm: 77, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 90, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 97, Comfortable
  • 8 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Georgia State is worth +4.1 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.

44% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (20-25 home, 14-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 505 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings