Virginia Tech beats Old Dominion 44-21
Team pages: Old Dominion · Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 44-21. Share this game
We had Virginia Tech favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
This user would like to acknowledge that all past statements regarding Brent Pry and/or his history and capabilities as a football coach specifically were made in regards to *Head…
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Virginia Tech a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Virginia Tech was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
Favored the whole way: Virginia Tech never fell below 91%.
Old Dominion never had better than a 9% chance.
Virginia Tech 44-21 Old Dominion
Virginia Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Old Dominion 21-44 Virginia TechOld Dominion lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 8:15Virginia Tech fans celebrate Pry's defense forcing an ODU fumble and Overton's runQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q2 4:35
"I don't think the ground can cause a fumble" -a professional football announcer in the year 2026
r/CFB game threadThis announcer is an idiot, ground can’t cause a fumble
r/CFB game thread - Q4 2:27Virginia Tech fans criticize officials and broadcast for missing a fumble call
"this one ain't over, folks!" Wtf is this broadcast crew doing
r/CFB game threadTerrible spot, and I’m glad the CW decided to not show the replay
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Virginia Tech -17.5), at 91% for Virginia Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Virginia Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:57Grunkemeyer sacked for a 12-yd lossQ1, 10:57 · Virginia Tech 0, Old Dominion 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q1, 3:01Hawkins 20-yd TD runVirginia Tech leads 10-0Q1, 3:01 · Virginia Tech 10, Old Dominion 0▲3%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 93% to 96%▲3%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 93% to 96%▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 8:23Grunkemeyer 10-yd TD pass to ReynoldsVirginia Tech leads 24-3Q2, 8:23 · Virginia Tech 24, Old Dominion 3▲2%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 8:15Dominion run for a 5-yd lossfumblesQ2, 8:15 · Virginia Tech 24, Old Dominion 324-3score after the play24-3score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 6:51Grunkemeyer 16-yd TD pass to ReynoldsVirginia Tech leads 31-3Q2, 6:51 · Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 331-3score after the play31-3score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 6:15Henicle sacked for a 10-yd lossQ2, 6:15 · Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 331-3score after the play31-3score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q3, 12:48Henicle sacked for a 13-yd lossQ3, 12:48 · Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 634-6score after the play34-6score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q3, 1:14Henicle 7-yd TD pass to Haughtoncuts it to 37-13Q3, 1:14 · Virginia Tech 37, Old Dominion 1337-13score after the play37-13score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
Every drive
Virginia Tech scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Old Dominion on 4 of its 13.
Virginia Tech’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“That’s gotta be a benching for at least the rest of the game”
When fans got loud
Busy
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
Old Dominion’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Virginia Tech 44, Old Dominion 21
Virginia Tech covered −17.5 by 5.5. The total, 65, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Old Dominion | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 310 | 416 |
| Passing | 13 of 21, 187 yds | 32 of 44, 327 yds |
| Rushing | 31 for 123 yds | 42 for 89 yds |
| First downs | 11 | 26 |
| Third down | 4 of 13 | 10 of 21 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 45 yds | 6 for 32 yds |
| Time of possession | 21:36 | 38:24 |
Old Dominion leaders
- Passing Quinn Henicle 13 of 21, 187 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Quinn Henicle 16 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Devin Roche 9 for 45 yds
- Receiving Josh Rodriguez 3 for 89 yds; JJ Harrell 3 for 36 yds
Virginia Tech leaders
- Passing Ethan Grunkemeyer 31 of 42, 327 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Jeffrey Overton Jr. 14 for 47 yds; Marcellous Hawkins 11 for 43 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Luke Reynolds 8 for 108 yds, 2 TD; Ayden Greene 1 for 44 yds
No rain through the game
74° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 63 other games played at Lane Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 63° and 78°.
September game-day temperatures at Lane Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Virginia Tech Airport, 1.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Old Dominion · 10-3
Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 66th now.
Three straight wins, capped by a 14-point win over South Florida as a 4-point underdog.
W 24-10 @ South FloridaTop 25 #27 of 667
won by 14 as a 4-point underdog
W 27-10 vs Georgia State #188 of 667
won by 17 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 45-10 @ Georgia Southern #157 of 667
won by 35 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 33-0 vs Troy #139 of 667
won by 33 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 31-6 @ UL Monroe #193 of 667
won by 25 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 24-21 vs App State #118 of 667
won by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 27-63 @ James MadisonTop 25 #55 of 667
lost by 36 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 24-48 @ Marshall #80 of 667
lost by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 47-7 vs Coastal Carolina #138 of 667
won by 40 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 21-7 vs Liberty #110 of 667
won by 14 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 45-26 @ Virginia Tech #75 of 667
won by 19 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 54-6 vs North Carolina Central #181 of 667
won by 48 as a 21.5-point favorite
L 14-27 @ IndianaTop 25 #36 of 667
lost by 13 as a 23.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Virginia Tech · 3-9
Rated 51st in our preseason ratings, 49th now.
Three straight losses.
L 7-27 @ VirginiaTop 25 #35 of 667
lost by 20 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 17-34 vs MiamiTop 25 #8 of 667
lost by 17 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 14-34 @ Florida StateTop 25 #33 of 667
lost by 20 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 16-28 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #27 of 667
lost by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 42-34 vs California #80 of 667
won by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 20-35 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #37 of 667
lost by 15 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 23-30 vs Wake Forest #69 of 667
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 23-21 @ NC State #53 of 667
won by 2 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 38-6 vs Wofford #193 of 667
won by 32 as a 34.5-point favorite
L 26-45 vs Old Dominion #80 of 667
lost by 19 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 20-44 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #42 of 667
lost by 24 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 11-24 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #13 of 667
lost by 13 as a 7.5-point underdog
Week by week
Virginia Tech
- Wk 1Wvs VMI73-3
Old Dominion
- Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s success rate against Virginia Tech, 83 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Old Dominion’s success rate against Virginia Tech’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 83rd
Old Dominion’s rushing EPA against Virginia Tech’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 1st percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 82nd
Old Dominion’s explosive plays against Virginia Tech’s defense
Old Dominion offense, 53rd percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 7th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Virginia Tech leads the series 4-3
7 meetings since 2017 · Old Dominion won the last meeting
- 2025Old Dominion 45-26
- 2024Virginia Tech 37-17
- 2023Virginia Tech 36-17
- 2022Old Dominion 20-17
- 2019Virginia Tech 31-17
Each line is Virginia Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Virginia Tech is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Virginia Tech fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 71%
- Line · 92%
- Virginia Tech fans · 70th
- Old Dominion fans · 15th
Virginia Tech favored by 17.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Virginia Tech by 17.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3.5 points toward Virginia Tech.
The total fell 3.5 points.
Spread: −14 → −17.5 · Total: 51 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Lane Stadium, Blacksburg
- 79°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 91weather score, Comfortable
- Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Lane Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 91 at noon.
- noon: 91, Comfortable (this game)
- 1 pm: 88, Mixed
- 2 pm: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 98, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Virginia Tech is worth +2.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
50% at home, 38% on the road against FBS opponents (24-24 home, 17-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 228 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Old Dominion 20, Virginia Tech 17Sep 2, 2022
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2018.