ULM3-93Bryant Vincent enters his third season at UL Monroe with a 3-9 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on reclaiming its historic upset legacy and reshaping its struggling units.
ULM is the north-Louisiana program that walked into Little Rock and stunned #8 Arkansas in overtime — one perfect Saturday it has spent a decade-plus trying to feel again.
ULM fans know the power-conference programs schedule them as a paycheck and a guaranteed win — and they'll remind you the Warhawks once cashed that check the other way, walking into an SEC stadium and…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Mississippi State · Sat Sep 5 · 23:30 UTC
ULM is the Sun Belt program whose 2007 program rename + 2012 Arkansas upset (plus a real 2007 upset of Alabama, 21-14) + Malone Stadium identity define what Monroe-North-Louisiana-football looks like.
The team's balanced portal churn and high continuity suggest a competitive season, though its low recruiting rank and moderate reload score indicate challenges ahead.
Ace the Warhawk is patient.
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Bryant Vincent enters his third season at UL Monroe with a 3-9 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on reclaiming its historic upset legacy and reshaping its struggling units.
Bryant Vincent begins his second season at ULM, inheriting a 3-9 losing record and a program whose identity hinges on its 2012 Alabama upset and Malone Stadium legacy.
Jonathan Bibbs is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
JP Coulter is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Zachary Palmer-Smith does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
UL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses.
UL Monroe enters 2026 — the 3-9 record and 1% returning production contrast sharply with the 2012 Alabama upset that defined its identity, raising questions about whether the program can.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
ULM · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
UL Monroe: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
UL Monroe: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Opens Sep 5
vs Mississippi State · away
~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MS leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
99 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. MS leads the pull.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Recovering 12% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
1 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 12 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 13% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
5 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (34 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 88 penalties committed vs. 63 drawn on opponents, a 182-yard deficit.
780 penalty yards committed vs. 598 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
~ our readNot enough UL Monroe chatter this week to read the room.
We read 7 UL Monroe posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Fanbase Health Index · ULM · medium confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.11 EPA/play | 10 | 11 | 147 / 252 | 58.3 | 1619 | 6.4 | 12 | 8 | 121.7 | 31.9 | 5.1 | 7.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Aidan Armenta's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 19 / 40 | 47.5 | 185 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 92.8 | 70.0 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 17 | 10 | 5 / 10 | 50 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | 2 | 136.2 | 45.0 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 115 | 660 | 5.7 | 4 | 56 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 21.2 | 17.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Zachary Palmer-Smith's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 124 | 614 | 5.0 | 3 | 74 | 8.8 | 16.3 | 26.7 | 15 | 5.8% (15/258) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception5.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braylon McReynolds's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 28 | 11 | 27 | 195 | 7.2 | 0 | 72 | 8.2 | 8.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.15 EPA/play | 29 | 7 | 35 | 137 | 3.9 | 0 | 19 | 1.3 | 6.7 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.56 EPA/play | 8 | 11 | 26 | 383 | 14.7 | 3 | 68 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 16.3% (42/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.5 bottom 32th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume26 bottom 32th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jonathan Bibbs's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.13 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 23 | 368 | 16 | 4 | 52 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 17.8% (46/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.2 bottom 49th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate17.4% 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nic Trujillo's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 21 | 234 | 11.1 | 0 | 39 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 12.0% (31/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.2 bottom 37th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View JP Coulter's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.17 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 16 | 191 | 11.9 | 2 | 37 | 10.8 | 9 | 11.6% (30/258) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.0 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacob Godfrey's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.66 EPA/play | — | 7 | 13 | 168 | 12.9 | 2 | 48 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 7.4% (19/258) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Money-downWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate15.4% 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyler Griffin's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.81 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 15 | 151 | 10.1 | 1 | 24 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 6.6% (17/258) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Julian Nixon's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.58 EPA/play | 13 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 | 21 | 9.8 | 8.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 80 | 7 | 6 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 4.2 | 4.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 12 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 2-star, 2024 class View Kevontay Wells's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 45 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Clifton Mosley Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 41 | 9 | 19 | 13 | 4.5 | 4 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.7% 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dylan Howell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 14 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Tae Woody's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 90 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaden Hamlin's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View James Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 5th to 26th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight330 lb 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jerome Simmons's full player page | |||||||
| 49 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 12 | 80 | 40 | 40 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume80 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.2% bottom 32th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Flemmings's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 16 | 11 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Seidrion Langston's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 30 | 12 | 35 | 26 | 9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marcus Ross's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 5 | 10 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.3% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume26 bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 74th percentile among FBS LBs to the 36th | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 19 | 12 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume25 bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaeden Calender's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 9 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume21 bottom 15th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kelbee Holmes's full player page | |||||||||
| 6 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 12 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 7.5 | 2.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 57th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jabari Tiller's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 10 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.6% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View D'Arco Perkins-McAllister's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · junior View Carl Fauntroy Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.2% bottom 26th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kam Canterbury's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 23 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Jalen Foster's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 13 | 11 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.2% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 66th percentile among FBS Ss, fell to 35th, now back up to 73rd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.0% bottom 30th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zy Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · senior · 2-star, 2024 class View Kristopher Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Lynard Harris's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Andre Mack's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.1% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jyren Ester's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior · 2-star, 2024 class View Stephen Saywahn's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 29 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 4 | 2/4 | 50 | 11/11 | 17 | 44 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 47 | 12 | 60 | 2331 | 38.9 | 58 | 13 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.17 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 9 | 77 | 8.6 | 0 | 28 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+18 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #116 | #208 | -30.5 | St. Francis (PA) | W 29–0 116 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #128 | #12 | +34.5 | @Alabama | L 0–73 119 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #109 | #114 | +5.5 | @UTEP | W 31–25 134 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #112 | #145 | -1.5 | Arkansas State | W 28–16 130 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #113 | #60 | +13.5 | @Northwestern | L 7–42 124 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #122 | #135 | -2.5 | @Coastal Carolina | L 8–23 130 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #144 | #84 | +5.5 | Troy | L 14–37 123 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #150 | #115 | +14 | @Southern Miss | L 21–49 127 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #171 | #61 | +17 | Old Dominion | L 6–31 135 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #182 | #138 | +4.5 | South Alabama | L 14–26 119 | 3-7 | 1-5 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #199 | #59 | +20.5 | @Texas State | L 14–31 136 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #200 | #101 | +11.5 | @Louisiana | L 27–30 144 | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Louisiana | L 27–30 | 516 | 2 | 30:08 | +0.175 | 46.2% | 131.5% | Best success rate |
| Nov 22 | @Texas State | L 14–31 | 300 | 0 | 27:53 | +0.150 | 39.7% | 125.5% | |
| Nov 15 | South Alabama | L 14–26 | 154 | 1 | 22:35 | -0.127 | 20.5% | 154.8% | |
| Nov 1 | Old Dominion | L 6–31 | 293 | 2 | 33:43 | -0.127 | 36.1% | 80.8% | |
| Oct 25 | @Southern Miss | L 21–49 | 312 | 3 | 34:57 | +0.074 | 36.8% | 131.2% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 18 | Troy | L 14–37 | 326 | 4 | 33:05 | +0.058 | 34.8% | 151.4% | |
| Oct 11 | @Coastal Carolina | L 8–23 | 316 | 2 | 30:04 | -0.166 | 25.4% | 163.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Northwestern | L 7–42 | 273 | 0 | 24:18 | +0.135 | 41.8% | 145.0% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 27 | Arkansas State | W 28–16 | 393 | 1 | 30:21 | +0.232 | 43.1% | 152.7% | |
| Sep 21 | @UTEP | W 31–25 | 401 | 0 | 31:51 | +0.241 | 40.7% | 156.4% | One-score win |
| Sep 6 | @Alabama | L 0–73 | 148 | 3 | 25:46 | -0.062 | 25.5% | 150.4% | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 28 | St. Francis (PA) | W 29–0 | 434 | 1 | 30:49 | +0.308 | 44.8% | 136.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 322 | 1.6 | +0.074 | 36.3% | 139.9% | ||||
ULM fields a struggling explosive, big-play offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
11th percentile quality, 92nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 50th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 10th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
13th percentile success on standard downs, 14th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 36th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 9th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.07; 32nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.31 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
ULM reads strongest in explosive plays (top 6%) and rushing epa allowed (top 42%); the crux lives in success rate, where ULM sits at the 10th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · ULM
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · ULM · 2018-present
50% home win rate vs 14% on the road. margin runs +18.0 better at home. Malone Stadium seats 27,617, averaging 55% full (15,223 attendance, 22 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Braylon McReynolds and Zachary Palmer-Smith split the carries (121/236 vs 115/236) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Nic Trujillo (WR) and Julian Nixon (TE) split the targets (45/62 vs 17/62) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Nic Trujillo produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 17 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, UL Monroe’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.1% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 108-play sample) — mid-pack, 117 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
75°F average kickoff temp; 8% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 64 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
ULM's 2014–2025 record is 43-100. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1965 · 57 seasons · .344 win rate
In 2012, ULM trailed #8 Arkansas by 21 points and won in overtime. Kolton Browning accounted for 481 yards, the Warhawks shocked the whole sport, and north Louisiana had its Saturday. That was thirteen years ago.
The Shock in Little Rock is the most important fact about ULM football, and not only because nothing since has come close to it. It matters because it is proof — verifiable, scorebook-permanent — that a program on the smallest budget in its league can walk into an SEC stadium and walk out with the result. That proof sits behind every ULM season whether anyone mentions it or not. The 1987 FCS national title predates the FBS era, but that too belongs to the canon: a north-Louisiana school that won a championship before the sport reshuffled the tiers.
Bryant Vincent's second season in 2025 went 3-9 (1-7 Sun Belt) — a step back from the 5-7 first year that started 5-1 before collapsing. Vincent is also carrying an interim athletic director hat, an unusual dual role for a coach at a program asking him to do more with less. The smallest budget in the Sun Belt is not a metaphor; it is the operating condition every roster decision gets made inside.
The 2026 question in Monroe is whether Vincent can build a team that wins more often than it loses, or whether ULM's modern identity stays defined by a single extraordinary Saturday. A bowl trip would be the program's first since the 2012 season. A winning record would be proof the Warhawks can do it for sixty games, not just sixty minutes.
ULM plays underdog opportunism — a scheme built around doing more with less, creating confusion, and staying in position for the upset. When the Warhawks are at their best, they run a ball-control offense that shortens the game and keeps them close long enough for the play that changes it. The 2026 roster is thin but the scheme is built for the role: a program that earns its wins the hard way, one disruptive Saturday at a time.
ULM 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.06 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 1.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
ULM: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
ULM is 13th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 1-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · ULM
Bryant Vincent in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2012
ULM upset #8 Arkansas (34-31 OT) in 2012 — one of the most-iconic G5 upsets of the BCS era. The win + the Todd Berry era + the Sun Belt G5 ascent narrative made the 2012 season program identity. ULM's Sun Belt run + the multiple bowl appearances + the 1987 FCS championship retroactively elevated.
since 1987
Northeast Louisiana (now ULM) won the 1987 NCAA Division I-AA national championship. The championship is the program's only national title + opened the path to FBS reclassification. The 2007 program rename (from Northeast Louisiana to University of Louisiana at Monroe / ULM) was the institutional identity reset.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Northeast Louisiana wins the I-AA title
2012
ULM stuns #8 Arkansas 34-31 in overtime, rallying from 21 down
Moment of the Year · ULM · 2025
Week 2 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Jesse Montalto — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Hired for 2026: Troy Reffett — not yet reflected in on-field data.
ULM · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · ULM · medium confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · ULM
Season Standing · 2025 · 3-9
Coaching Era · ULM
Moment of the Year · ULM · 2025