UL Monroe at Troy
Troy (3‑3) hosts UL Monroe (0‑6). The market has Troy favored by 13.5. The model gives Troy a 77% shot. UL Monroe’s passing offense is at the 11th percentile; Troy’s pass defense is at the 58th.
How they got here
Last three games
UL Monroe · 0-6
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 225th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Troy · 3-3
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 111th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: UL Monroe’s passing EPA against Troy, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UL Monroe’s passing EPA against Troy’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 11th percentile · Troy defense, 58th
UL Monroe’s EPA/play against Troy’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 7th percentile · Troy defense, 42nd
What’s at stake
UL Monroe
- UL Monroe is 4 games back in Sun Belt with 5 left to make it up.
- Bryant Vincent is behind Terry Bowden’s year-3 pace (0-6 vs. 2-4) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
Troy
- Troy needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 73% to get there with a win here, 40% with a loss.
- Troy hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2017.
The series
Troy leads the series 11-8
19 meetings since 1995 · Troy won the last meeting
- 2025Troy 37-14
- 2024UL Monroe 13-9
- 2023Troy 45-14
- 2022Troy 34-16
- 2021UL Monroe 29-16
Each line is Troy’s chance to win through that meeting. Troy is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
UL Monroe
The chip · vs the blue bloodsULM fans know the power-conference programs schedule them as a paycheck and a guaranteed win — and they'll remind you the Warhawks once cashed that check the other way, walking into an SEC stadium and walking out with the upset of the year.
What this game touches
Living on one upset. ULM's defining modern memory — the 2012 overtime win over #8 Arkansas, 'The Shock in Little Rock' — is now thirteen-plus years old, and the program has mostly struggled since. A 3-9 (1-7 Sun Belt) finish in 2025, Bryant Vincent's second year, was the latest reminder that the magic Saturday hasn't had many sequels.
Troy
The chip · vs the blue bloodsTroy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent, and there is nothing they enjoy more than proving otherwise on a Saturday in Baton Rouge or Athens.
What this game touches
One step short in 2025. Gerad Parker engineered a four-win improvement and a Sun Belt West title in 2025, then Troy lost the conference championship to James Madison 31-14 and dropped its bowl to Jacksonville State 17-13 — a strong year that stopped just short of the trophy Troy measures itself by.
Best players
UL Monroe
- Noah Flemmings (LB) · 47 tackles
- Marcus Ross (LB) · 34 tackles
- Jabari Tiller (DB) · 27 tackles
Troy
- Justin Powe (S) · 38 tackles
- Jordan Perry (LB) · 31 tackles
- TJ Thompson (LB) · 29 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Aidan Armenta (QB) — UL Monroe’s leading passer (967 passing yards) takes on Troy’s pass defense (58th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward UL Monroe since opening (−17.5 → −13.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Troy’s chances here.
Troy favored by 13.5 · Total 50.5
Troy by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Troy’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Veterans Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 81
UL Monroe at Troy · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 4 pm ET · Veterans Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Veterans Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 81, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Troy is worth +2.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.
63% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 25-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 361 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Troy
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
- Wk 3Lat Missouri17-27
- Wk 4Lat Utah State10-21
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Miss55-34
- Wk 7Lat Louisiana6-33
UL Monroe
- Wk 2Lat UAB20-26
- Wk 3Lvs SE Louisiana35-38
- Wk 4Lvs Florida Atlantic17-45
- Wk 5Lat South Alabama35-52
- Wk 7Lvs Louisiana Tech0-24
Power rating by week
Troy is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward UL Monroe.
Spread: −17.5 → −13.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- UL Monroe 29, Troy 16Sep 25, 2021