Louisiana beats Troy 33-6
Louisiana beat Troy 33-6. Share this game
We had Louisiana favored. It won.
Next: Troy vs UL Monroe, Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 PM ET · Troy favored by 14.5
Next: Louisiana at Southern Miss, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET · Louisiana favored by 10
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Favored the whole way: Louisiana never fell below 68%.
Troy never had better than a 31% chance.
Louisiana 33-6 Troy
Louisiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Troy 6-33 LouisianaTroy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Louisiana -3), at 69% for Louisiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Louisiana scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Troy on 1 of its 10.
Louisiana’s drives are teal, Troy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Troy’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Troy plays vs UL Monroe on Sat Oct 24 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. Louisiana plays at Southern Miss on Sat Oct 24 with a 15% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Louisiana 33, Troy 6
Louisiana covered −3 by 24. The total, 39, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | Troy | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 267 | 351 |
| Passing | 14 of 26, 141 yds | 13 of 23, 108 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 126 yds | 49 for 243 yds |
| First downs | 12 | 23 |
| Third down | 3 of 12 | 10 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 5 for 55 yds | 3 for 29 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:21 | 36:39 |
Troy leaders
- Passing Tucker Kilcrease 5 of 10, 76 yds
- Rushing Jordan Lovett 10 for 50 yds; Tucker Kilcrease 4 for 32 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jace Petty 4 for 69 yds; Marquez Dortch 2 for 20 yds
Louisiana leaders
- Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 11 of 21, 70 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing D'Wayne' Winfield 15 for 65 yds; JJ Garner 10 for 62 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Trenton Chaney 3 for 45 yds; Brock Chappell 3 for 26 yds
No rain, gusts to 26 mph
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the north-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 26
A 26 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 87% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 81°.
Game-day temperatures at Cajun Field
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
The same game in two conditions
| Wind 15 mph or more | Lighter wind | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs and passes | 58 | 15 |
| Share that were passes | 38% | 40% |
| Yards per play | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
How this is counted
Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.Where this weather comes from
Measured at Lafayette airport, 3.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Troy · 3-2
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 101st now, up 12 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Louisiana · 4-2
Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 38th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Louisiana
- Wk 2Lat USC30-49
- Wk 3Wvs UAB21-14
- Wk 4Wat Charlotte34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Arkansas State23-20
- Wk 6Lat Louisiana Tech31-32
Troy
- Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
- Wk 3Lat Missouri17-27
- Wk 4Lat Utah State10-21
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Miss55-34
Power rating by week
Louisiana is rated 6.0 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Troy’s EPA/play against Louisiana, 65 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Troy’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense
Troy offense, 27th percentile · Louisiana defense, 92nd
Troy’s rushing EPA against Louisiana’s defense
Troy offense, 53rd percentile · Louisiana defense, 99th
Troy’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense
Troy offense, 63rd percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Troy leads the series 12-8
20 meetings since 1994 · Troy won the last meeting
- 2025Troy 35-23
- 2024Louisiana 51-30
- 2023Troy 31-24
- 2022Troy 23-17
- 2021Louisiana 35-21
Each line is Louisiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisiana is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (98th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 78%
- Line · 60%
- Louisiana fans · 98th
- Troy fans · 94th
Louisiana favored by 3 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Louisiana by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Troy.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 47.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Louisiana is worth +4.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.
73% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (32-12 home, 31-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.6 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 377 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Troy 23, Louisiana 17Nov 5, 2022
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.