Louisiana at USC
Fan take
Louisiana fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Louisiana · 6-7
Picked #35 in the preseason · now #40.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Arkansas State as a 2.5-point underdog.
L 13–20 @ Delaware #132 of 668
lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 30–27 vs UL Monroe #186 of 668
won by 3 as a 11.5-point favorite
W 34–30 @ Arkansas State #154 of 668
won by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 42–39 vs Texas State #75 of 668
won by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 31–22 @ South Alabama #136 of 668
won by 9 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 23–35 @ Troy #80 of 668
lost by 12 as a 7-point underdog
L 10–22 vs Southern Miss #115 of 668
lost by 12 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 14–24 @ James MadisonTop 25 #51 of 668
lost by 10 as a 18.5-point underdog
W 54–51 vs Marshall #76 of 668
won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 31–34 @ Eastern Michigan #171 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 10–52 @ MissouriTop 25 #16 of 668
lost by 42 as a 27.5-point underdog
W 34–10 vs McNeese #140 of 668
won by 24 as a 19.5-point favorite
L 12–14 vs Rice #77 of 668
lost by 2 as a 9.5-point favorite
Last two games
USC · 2-0
Picked #28 in the preseason · now #32 — about right.
Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 39–0 vs Fresno State #37 of 669
won by 39 as a 21.5-point favorite
W 42–26 vs San José State #120 of 669
won by 16 as a 37-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
USC projected #8 seed
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
USC leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · USC won the last meeting
- 2026USC 49–30
Best players
Louisiana
- Collin Jacob (S) · 17 tackles
- Jake St. Andre (LB) · 12 tackles
- Conor McPherson (LB) · 12 tackles
USC
- Jayden Maiava (QB) · 896 passing yards — Heisman odds: 10th (+1750)
- Trent Mosley (WR) · 255 receiving yards
- King Miller (RB) · 236 rushing yards
The line, and the room
Louisiana fans are feeling better about their season (53rd percentile) than USC fans are (27th) — even with USC favored here.
- Model · 61%
- Market · 99%
- USC fans · 27th
- Louisiana fans · 53rd
Home −30.5 · O/U 58.5
Conditions
74°F · 6 mph wind · Clear
USC is worth +6.0 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
71% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (37–15 home, 20–20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.3 at home vs. away over 74 games — outside the ±4.9 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,554 miles to get here.
Louisiana 30 – USC 49
Called it — picked USC to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 04:22 — 16 comments, 5.3× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 02:00–07:37 UTC (389 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Jayden Maiava (USC): 261 yds · 5 TD
Top 1% passing TDs game since 2021.Maiava is like a goldfish short memory with bad playsr/CFB game thread · ▲ 2
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
USC
- Wk 1Wvs San José State42-26
- Wk 1Wvs Fresno State39-0
Louisiana
- Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
Trajectory
USC won 49-30, as picked pregame.