McNeese · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · McNeese · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · McNeese1997 FCS National Championship Game
McNeese reaches the FCS national championship game, loses to Youngstown State
Heartbreak
McNeese5-7Hope-Doping·Offseason
McNeese is the Lake Charles Cowboys that won 14 Southland titles and appeared in two national championship games — and still can't shake the feeling that the blue bloods owe them something.
Title DroughtSince 2002 · 23 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is systemic: McNeese won 19 championships in a small Louisiana city and nobody outside the Gulf Coast knows it. The Cowboys appear on SportsCenter once every three years, wh…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs Stephen F. Austin · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
McNeese is the Lake Charles Cowboys that won 14 Southland titles and appeared in two national championship games — and still can't shake the feeling that the blue bloods owe them something.
The Cowboys hold the line.
McNeese · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 5-7
Ceiling 8-4
floor3-9Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs Stephen F. Austin · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on McNeese
—
The Cowboys hold the line.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go McNeese"
— McNeese fanbase · recurring line
22 mentions · sample growing
Fanbase Health Index · McNeese · medium confidence
Growing (55)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Volume — 21 effective signal-N57
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#92 / 138 · 34th pct23.5
Pts allowed/game#70 / 138 · 50th pct25.5
All 20 stats
Other
First down pass rate#30 / 215 · 87th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 6 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#136 / 167 · 19th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct0.30.0/gm
H1 epa per play#142 / 162 · 13th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct0.00.0
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team30.2/gm#152 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp90.8/gm#10 / 166 · 95th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team66.7%66.7%#142 / 167 · 16th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct
Opp77.8%77.8%#75 / 166 · 55th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct
Points / drive
Team0.80.1/gm#149 / 167 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp3.80.3/gm#159 / 166 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Yards / drive
Team24.42.0/gm#153 / 167 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp473.9/gm#148 / 166 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.40.5/gm#101 / 167 · 40th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct
Opp7.20.6/gm#160 / 166 · 4th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team31.8%31.8%#157 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp4.5%4.5%#154 / 166 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success allowed#157 / 172 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct56.2%56.2%
Passing-downs success
Team16.7%16.7%#150 / 153 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp38.7%38.7%#142 / 149 · 5th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct
Line yards / carry allowed#129 / 155 · 17th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct3.33.3
Stuff rate forced#132 / 155 · 15th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct14.3%14.3%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
McNeese · 2025 schedule & results5-7Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 41% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #172 | — | — | Louisiana Christian | W 54–9 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #162 | #58 | +19.5 | @Louisiana | L 10–34 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #140 | #156 | +3 | Weber State | L 41–42 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #147 | #121 | +23.5 | @Utah State | L 7–48 141 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #180 | #127 | +13.5 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 17–34 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #194 | #141 | — | SE Louisiana | L 0–38 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #235 | #215 | -6.5 | Houston Christian | W 27–0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #208 | #230 | +5.5 | @Nicholls | L 7–31 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #229 | #270 | -16.5 | Northwestern State | W 50–3 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #209 | #204 | +2.5 | @East Texas A&M | W 35–20 | 4-6 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #195 | #137 | — | UT Rio Grande Valley | L 13–28 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #203 | #151 | +13.5 | @Lamar | W 21–19 | 5-7 | 4-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Lamar | W 21–19 | — | — | — | +0.004 | 41.3% | 103.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 16 | UT Rio Grande Valley | L 13–28 | — | — | — | +0.071 | 41.6% | 117.6% | |
| Nov 8 | @East Texas A&M | W 35–20 | — | — | — | +0.164 | 42.5% | 132.8% | |
| Nov 1 | Northwestern State | W 50–3 | — | — | — | +0.376 | 54.3% | 123.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @Nicholls | L 7–31 | — | — | — | -0.007 | 35.6% | 134.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 18 | Houston Christian | W 27–0 | — | — | — | +0.217 | 50.0% | 93.5% | |
| Oct 4 | SE Louisiana | L 0–38 | — | — | — | -0.330 | 26.4% | 77.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 28 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 17–34 | — | — | — | +0.038 | 31.1% | 158.0% | |
| Sep 21 | @Utah State | L 7–48 | 239 | 0 | 28:46 | -0.033 | 22.9% | 185.3% | Most explosive |
| Sep 13 | Weber State | L 41–42 | — | — | — | +0.311 | 47.2% | 151.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 7 | @Louisiana | L 10–34 | 238 | 2 | 25:43 | -0.052 | 38.2% | 111.0% | |
| Aug 30 | Louisiana Christian | W 54–9 | — | — | — | +0.475 | 59.5% | 119.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 238 | 1.0 | +0.103 | 40.9% | 125.6% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of McNeese's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 40th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.47 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · McNeese · 2018-present
Strong
55% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +12.9 better at home. Cowboy Stadium seats 17,610, averaging 59% full (10,349 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home21-17Away12-30
Venue texture
73°F average kickoff temp; 26% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 27 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · McNeese
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
207-135-3
since 1964 · 45 seasons · .600 win rate
HOME
117-47-2
AWAY
81-83-1
NEUTRAL
9-5
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southland Standing · 2025
5th in the Southland
McNeese sits 5th of 10 in the Southland at 4-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 8-0 |
| 2 | SE Louisiana | 7-1 |
| 3 | Lamar | 5-3 |
| 4 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5-3 |
| 5 | McNeese | 4-4 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 4-4 |
| 7 | East Texas A&M | 3-5 |
| 8 | Incarnate Word | 3-5 |
| 9 | Houston Christian | 1-7 |
| 10 | Northwestern State | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2002 FCS National Championship Game
McNeese returns to the national championship game, loses to Delaware
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · McNeese · 2025
Moment of the Year · McNeese · 2025Won 54-9 vs Louisiana Christian
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
r/cfb moments
126
[Postgame Thread] LSU Defeats McNeese 34-7
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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