Nicholls · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Nicholls · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Nicholls2023 Southland Title
Nicholls wins the Southland Conference championship under Tim Rebowe
Nicholls4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Nicholls is the Thibodaux Colonels that won three Southland titles in six years (2018-2023), then hired a new coach and are learning whether the success was the system or the program.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 1 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is internal: the pressure to prove that the three Southland titles under Rebowe created a foundation that survives coaching change. Nicholls wants to build a program, not ju…
offseason · quiet
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · vs Mississippi Valley State · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Nicholls is the Thibodaux Colonels that won three Southland titles in six years (2018-2023), then hired a new coach and are learning whether the success was the system or the program.
Quiet weeks in Colonels country.
Nicholls · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Mississippi Valley State · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Nicholls
—
Quiet weeks in Colonels country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Nicholls"
— Nicholls fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Nicholls · medium confidence
Stable (43)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 2 effective signal-N38
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#123 / 138 · 12th pct18.2
Pts allowed/game#65 / 138 · 54th pct24.9
All 22 stats
Other
Red zone pass rate#19 / 154 · 88th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 5 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
First down pass rate#121 / 215 · 44th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct0.40.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#141 / 143 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.40.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#144 / 167 · 14th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct0.30.0/gm
H1 epa per play#148 / 162 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct-0.0-0.0
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team40.3/gm#148 / 167 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp80.7/gm#7 / 166 · 96th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Red zone score %
Team75.0%75.0%#104 / 167 · 38th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp100.0%100.0%#160 / 166 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Points / drive
Team1.10.1/gm#136 / 167 · 19th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp3.50.3/gm#156 / 166 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Yards / drive
Team33.02.8/gm#140 / 167 · 17th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp41.83.5/gm#101 / 166 · 40th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Plays / drive
Team7.10.6/gm#16 / 167 · 91st pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp70.6/gm#146 / 166 · 13th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team10.0%10.0%#42 / 167 · 75th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp4.8%4.8%#153 / 166 · 8th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success
Team38.6%38.6%#145 / 154 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp56.1%56.1%#156 / 172 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Line yards / carry allowed#153 / 155 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.93.9
Stuff rate forced#152 / 155 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct8.4%8.4%
Power success allowed#113 / 141 · 21st pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct76.9%76.9%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Nicholls · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 51% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #184 | #117 | +13.5 | Incarnate Word | W 20–6 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 1 | Aug 30 | #184 | #88 | +19.5 | @Troy | L 20–38 120 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #157 | #222 | -6.5 | West Georgia | L 10–34 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #199 | #55 | +32.5 | @Texas State | L 3–35 133 | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #199 | #176 | +2.5 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 7–27 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #214 | #164 | +3.5 | @Lamar | L 17–24 | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #212 | #117 | +13.5 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 7–34 | 1-6 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #230 | #208 | -5.5 | McNeese | W 31–7 | 2-6 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #210 | #249 | -11.5 | Houston Christian | W 31–7 | 3-6 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #194 | #138 | — | @UT Rio Grande Valley | L 21–28 | 3-7 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #189 | #304 | -23.5 | Northwestern State | W 26–21 | 4-7 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Nov 21 | #196 | #101 | +17.5 | @SE Louisiana | L 26–38 | 4-8 | 4-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21 | @SE Louisiana | L 26–38 | — | — | — | +0.172 | 39.0% | 136.8% | |
| Nov 15 | Northwestern State | W 26–21 | — | — | — | +0.258 | 43.9% | 147.5% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | L 21–28 | — | — | — | +0.149 | 39.2% | 136.5% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | Houston Christian | W 31–7 | — | — | — | +0.207 | 43.2% | 115.4% | |
| Oct 25 | McNeese | W 31–7 | — | — | — | +0.413 | 48.6% | 140.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 7–34 | — | — | — | -0.226 | 34.7% | 65.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Lamar | L 17–24 | — | — | — | +0.131 | 31.5% | 159.7% | Most explosive |
| Sep 27 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 7–27 | — | — | — | -0.148 | 31.1% | 124.0% | |
| Sep 21 | @Texas State | L 3–35 | 224 | 1 | 33:09 | -0.124 | 33.3% | 110.3% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 6 | West Georgia | L 10–34 | — | — | — | -0.129 | 27.5% | 103.8% | |
| Aug 30 | @Troy | L 20–38 | 249 | 1 | 29:13 | +0.054 | 36.0% | 118.0% | |
| Aug 23 | Incarnate Word | W 20–6 | — | — | — | -0.016 | 28.8% | 137.2% | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (12 games) | 236 | 1.0 | +0.062 | 36.4% | 124.6% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Nicholls's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.06; 48th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 5: -0.07 raw vs. -0.03 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Nicholls · 2018-present
Elite
70% home win rate vs 33% on the road. margin runs +18.9 better at home. Manning Field at John L. Guidry Stadium seats 10,500, averaging 58% full (6,105 attendance, 8 games reported).
Home26-11Away16-32
Venue texture
76°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Nicholls
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
102-166
since 1976 · 40 seasons · .380 win rate
HOME
62-46
AWAY
35-114
NEUTRAL
5-6
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Southland Standing · 2025
6th in the Southland
Nicholls sits 6th of 10 in the Southland at 4-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 8-0 |
| 2 | SE Louisiana | 7-1 |
| 3 | Lamar | 5-3 |
| 4 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5-3 |
| 5 | McNeese | 4-4 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 4-4 |
| 7 | East Texas A&M | 3-5 |
| 8 | Incarnate Word | 3-5 |
| 9 | Houston Christian | 1-7 |
| 10 | Northwestern State | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2018-2023 Ascent
Nicholls climbs from FCS obscurity to three Southland titles and sustained playoff contention
Moment of the Year · Nicholls · 2025
Moment of the Year · Nicholls · 2025Won 20-6 vs Incarnate Word
Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023): 0-1
Most recent: 2023 — loss 35-0 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2023
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site