Nicholls at Sam Houston
Sam Houston (0‑2) hosts Nicholls (2‑1). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Sam Houston (69%).
How they got here
Last three games
Nicholls · 2-1
Picked #204 in the preseason · now #197 — about right.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over UT Rio Grande Valley as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 31–28 vs UT Rio Grande Valley #143 of 669
won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 3–71 @ Kansas State #32 of 669
lost by 68 as a 41-point underdog
W 44–10 vs Mississippi Valley State #255 of 669
won by 34 as a 28.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Nicholls
- Nicholls needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Nicholls is the Thibodaux Colonels that won three Southland titles in six years (2018-2023), then hired a new coach and are learning whether the success was the system or the program.
Sam Houston
- Phil Longo is behind K.C. Keeler’s year-2 pace (0-2 vs. 1-1) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
Sam Houston leads the series 11-3
14 meetings since 2003 · Sam Houston won the last meeting
- 2019Sam Houston 17–0
- 2018Nicholls 27–7
- 2017Sam Houston 66–17
- 2016Sam Houston 38–21
- 2015Sam Houston 37–7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Nicholls
The chipFans here believe the chip is internal: the pressure to prove that the three Southland titles under Rebowe created a foundation that survives coaching change. Nicholls wants to build a program, not just ride a coach.
What this game touches
The 2025 coaching transition and the question of Tim Rebowe's legacy. Tim Rebowe built Nicholls into a Southland powerhouse (three titles in six years), then left. New coach Tommy Rybacki arrived to a 4-8 season — not a disaster, but enough to raise the question: was the success Rebowe, or Nicholls? The fanbase fears the answer.
Sam Houston
The chipBearkat fans don't carry a grudge so much as a quiet 'we were just there' — a 2020 ring and a 2024 bowl trophy that no 2-10 season can take back. They know what this program is capable of because they watched it happen.
What this game touches
Keeler leaves, and the bottom drops out. K.C. Keeler took the Bearkats from FCS champions (2020) to a 10-3 FBS season and the program's first bowl win (Georgia Southern, New Orleans Bowl, 2024) — then left for Temple. First-year successor Phil Longo went 2-10 (1-7 Conference USA) amid a public culture crisis. The fanbase learned, fast, how much of the rocket ride was one man.
Best players
Sam Houston
- Landyn Locke (QB) · 651 passing yards
- Railyn Adams (S) · 13 tackles
- Grady O'Neill (WR) · 148 receiving yards
Conditions
91°F · 3 mph wind
Sam Houston is worth +8.1 points (±5.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
62% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (8–5 home, 5–16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 290 miles to get here.
Recent games
Sam Houston
- Wk 1Lat Troy21-24
- Wk 2Lvs Tulsa17-23
Nicholls
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State44-10
- Wk 1Lat Kansas State3-71
- Wk 2Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley31-28