Troy beats Sam Houston 24-21

Team pages: Sam Houston · Troy

Sam Houston0-121
Troy1-024Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), Troy, Ala. · Crowd 24,356ESPN+

Troy beat Sam Houston 24-21.

We had Troy favored. It won.

Next: Sam Houston lost to Tulsa 23-17, Sat Sep 12

Next: Troy beat Alabama State 34-17, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Troy a 77% chance, and the closing betting line (Troy was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.

Favored the whole way: Troy never fell below 67%.

Sam Houston never had better than a 32% chance.

FinalTroy 24-21 Sam HoustonTroy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfTroyWon24-211−11Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q479% at halfTroyWon24-211Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfTroyLowest 0%Lost21-241+11Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q421% at halfTroyLowest 0%Lost21-241Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:47Locke 14-yd TD pass to O'Neill, Sam Houston goes ahead 7-0Troy 82% → 71% (−11)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 7:47Locke 14-yd TD pass to O'Neill, Sam Houston goes ahead 7-0Sam Houston 18% → 29% (+11)
Troy’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Troy -15.5), at 86% for Troy (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Troy’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:47Locke 14-yd TD pass to O'NeillSam Houston goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:47 · Troy 0, Sam Houston 7▼11%Troy’s chance to win, 82% to 71%▼11%Troy’s chance to win, 82% to 71%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 4:40Crowder sacked for a 2-yd lossQ1, 4:40 · Troy 0, Sam Houston 70-7score after the play0-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 4:06Crowder 19-yd TD pass to Rogoschties it 7-7Q1, 4:06 · Troy 7, Sam Houston 7▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 80% to 84%▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 80% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 14:54Crowder 28-yd TD pass to KeyesTroy goes ahead 14-7Q2, 14:54 · Troy 14, Sam Houston 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 11:59Locke 14-yd TD pass to Bledsoeties it 14-14Q2, 11:59 · Troy 14, Sam Houston 14▼7%Troy’s chance to win, 90% to 83%▼7%Troy’s chance to win, 90% to 83%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 0:30Crowder sacked for a 6-yd lossfumblesQ2, 0:30 · Troy 14, Sam Houston 14▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 89% to 86%▼3%Troy’s chance to win, 89% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 1:03Locke 31-yd TD pass to Reedcuts it to 24-21Q4, 1:03 · Troy 24, Sam Houston 21▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 96% to 100%▲4%Troy’s chance to win, 96% to 100%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Troy scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Sam Houston on 3 of its 12.

Troy’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Troy: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 68 yards out to 70PuntTroy: Punt, from 76 yards out to 59PuntSam Houston: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Punt, from 89 yards out to 71PuntTroy: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Sam Houston: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: Punt, from 72 yards out to 67PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 83 yards out to 48PuntTroy: Punt, from 99 yards out to 54PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 84 yards out to 67PuntTroy: Punt, from 70 yards out to 64PuntQ3Sam Houston: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionTroy: Field goal, from 14 yards out to 14Field goalSam Houston: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntTroy: Punt, from 60 yards out to 50PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntTroy: Punt, from 70 yards out to 69PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 79 yards out to 54PuntTroy: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Sam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 88 yards out to 47DownsTroy: Punt, from 53 yards out to 54PuntSam Houston: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownTroy: End of game, from 54 yards out to 35End of game

From Sam Houston’s side

Sam Houston’s best moment: Locke 14-yd TD pass to O'Neill, Sam Houston goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 7:47). It lifted Sam Houston’s win chance by 11 points.

Box score

Troy 24, Sam Houston 21

Sam Houston covered +15.5 by 12.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.

Sam HoustonTroyTotal yardsSam Houston 373Troy 342373342Passing yardsSam Houston 335Troy 165335165Rushing yardsSam Houston 38Troy 17738177First downsSam Houston 22Troy 182218TurnoversSam Houston 1Troy 010Time of possessionSam Houston 30:51Troy 29:0930:5129:09
Team totalsSam HoustonTroy
Total yards373342
Passing30 of 46, 335 yds12 of 24, 165 yds
Rushing24 for 38 yds42 for 177 yds
First downs2218
Third down6 of 146 of 15
Fourth down0 of 10 of 0
Turnovers10
Penalties6 for 35 yds6 for 55 yds
Time of possession30:5129:09

Sam Houston leaders

  • Passing Landyn Locke 30 of 46, 335 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Alton McCaskill 13 for 51 yds; Landan Brown 6 for 23 yds
  • Receiving Grady O'Neill 7 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Tim Burns Jr. 4 for 63 yds

Troy leaders

  • Passing Will Crowder 12 of 24, 165 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Gavin Griffin 16 for 81 yds; Will Crowder 9 for 38 yds
  • Receiving TK Keyes 2 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Fabian Rogosch 3 for 37 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

89° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the southwest, gusts to 9

September game-day temperatures at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Troy favoredSam Houston favored100%Win chanceTroyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F70°105°feels like 78°air 78°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Troy favoredSam Houston favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F70°105°feels like 78°air 78°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left6:04 p.m.
Sam Houston 0, Troy 0 · Troy 86% to win
no rain · wind 6 mph from the south-southwest · 88°
Lovett 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Troy Municipal airport, 5.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Sam Houston · 2-10

Rated 165th in our preseason ratings.

L 16-56 vs Florida International #96 of 667

lost by 40 as a 10.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 16-56 vs Florida International. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 17-31 @ Middle Tennessee #190 of 667

lost by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-31 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 26-23 vs Delaware #157 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

Sam Houston won 26-23 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 20%, low 7%, high better than 99%.

W 21-17 @ Oregon State #130 of 667

won by 4 as a 21.5-point underdog

Sam Houston won 21-17 at Oregon State. Chance to win started at 5%, low 1%, high 71%.

L 14-55 @ Louisiana Tech #94 of 667

lost by 41 as a 16.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 14-55 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 17-35 vs UTEP #150 of 667

lost by 18 as a 3.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-35 vs UTEP. Chance to win started at 53%, low under 1%, high 76%.

L 27-29 vs Jacksonville State #110 of 667

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 27-29 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 87%.

L 10-37 @ New Mexico State #189 of 667

lost by 27 as a 1.5-point favorite

Sam Houston lost 10-37 at New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 56%.

L 0-55 @ TexasTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 55 as a 39.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 0-55 at Texas. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 20-37 @ Hawai'i #151 of 667

lost by 17 as a 7.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 20-37 at Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.

L 21-38 vs UNLV #71 of 667

lost by 17 as an 8.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 21-38 vs UNLV. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 35%.

L 24-41 @ Western Kentucky #83 of 667

lost by 17 as a 10.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 24-41 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 39%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Troy · 8-6

Rated 113th in our preseason ratings.

L 13-17 @ Jacksonville State #111 of 667

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

Troy lost 13-17 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 65%.

L 14-31 @ James MadisonTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 17 as a 22.5-point underdog

Troy lost 14-31 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 28-18 @ Southern Miss #119 of 667

won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog

Troy won 28-18 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 25%, low 18%, high better than 99%.

W 31-19 vs Georgia State #195 of 667

won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite

Troy won 31-19 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

L 0-33 @ Old Dominion #52 of 667

lost by 33 as a 9.5-point underdog

Troy lost 0-33 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 10-23 vs Arkansas State #113 of 667

lost by 13 as a 7.5-point favorite

Troy lost 10-23 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 77%, low 1%, high 79%.

W 35-23 vs Louisiana #132 of 667

won by 12 as a 7.5-point favorite

Troy won 35-23 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 77%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

W 37-14 @ UL Monroe #152 of 667

won by 23 as a 5.5-point favorite

Troy won 37-14 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 60%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 48-41 @ Texas State #73 of 667

won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs South Alabama #96 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog

Troy won 31-24 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 53%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 21-17 @ Buffalo #101 of 667

won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog

Troy won 21-17 at Buffalo. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 70%.

L 7-28 vs MemphisTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog

Troy lost 7-28 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 42%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 16-27 @ ClemsonTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 11 as a 29.5-point underdog

Troy lost 16-27 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 44%.

W 38-20 vs Nicholls #171 of 667

won by 18 as a 16.5-point favorite

Troy won 38-20 vs Nicholls. Chance to win started at 90%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Troy’s passing EPA against Sam Houston, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Troy’s passing EPA against Sam Houston’s defense

    56 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Troy offense, 22nd percentile · Sam Houston defense, 78th

  2. Sam Houston’s success rate against Troy’s defense

    39 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 12th percentile · Troy defense, 51st

  3. Sam Houston’s explosive plays against Troy’s defense

    29 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 54th percentile · Troy defense, 25th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Sam HoustonTroy
EPA/play, offense
Sam Houston · 11Troy · 27
EPA/play, defense
Sam Houston · 39Troy · 43
Success rate, offense
Sam Houston · 12Troy · 29
Success rate, defense
Sam Houston · 50Troy · 51
Explosive-play rate, offense
Sam Houston · 54Troy · 63
Explosive-play rate, defense
Sam Houston · 56Troy · 25
Rush EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 12Troy · 53
Rush EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 7Troy · 37
Pass EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 15Troy · 22
Pass EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 78Troy · 58

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Troy fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (97th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 77%
  • Line · 89%
  • Troy fans · 97th
  • Sam Houston fans · 80th

Troy favored by 15.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Troy by 15.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Sam Houston.

opened −17.5now −15.5

Spread: −17.5 → −15.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 88° at kickoff.

Sam Houston at Troy · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy

  • 88°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 78weather score, Mixed
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Veterans Memorial Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 90, against 78 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 72, Rough
  • noon: 71, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 51, Rough
  • 3:15 pm: 53, Rough
  • 4 pm: 55, Rough
  • 6 pm: 78, Mixed (this game)
  • 7 pm: 90, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Troy is worth +2.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.

63% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (27-16 home, 25-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.4 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 571 miles to get here.

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