No. 20 Missouri beats Troy 27-17
No. 20 Missouri beat Troy 27-17. Share this game
We had Missouri favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri was a 26.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.
Favored the whole way: Missouri never fell below 77%.
Troy led by 10 but, as a 26.5-point underdog, never had better than a 22% chance.
Troy · Q1 14:15Punt return TD
Missouri · Q2 9:3924 unansweredMissouri · Q2 2:03Missouri 27-17 TroyMissouri wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Troy 17-27 MissouriTroy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Missouri -26.5), at 97% for Missouri (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Missouri’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 14:15Crowder 76-yd TD pass to KeyesTroy goes ahead 7-0Q1, 14:15 · Missouri 0, Troy 7▼6%Missouri’s chance to win, 97% to 91%▼6%Missouri’s chance to win, 97% to 91%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:39Fowlkes 68-yd punt return TDties it 10-10Q2, 9:39 · Missouri 10, Troy 10▲7%Missouri’s chance to win, 85% to 92%▲7%Missouri’s chance to win, 85% to 92%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 3:06Crowder intercepted by Laulea at the Troy 46returned 28 yardsQ2, 3:06 · Missouri 10, Troy 10▲7%Missouri’s chance to win, 89% to 96%▲7%Missouri’s chance to win, 89% to 96%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 2:03Simmons 12-yd TD pass to OlugbodeMissouri goes ahead 17-10Q2, 2:03 · Missouri 17, Troy 1017-10score after the play17-10score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:44Roberts 13-yd TD runMissouri leads 24-10Q2, 1:44 · Missouri 24, Troy 10▲3%Missouri’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▲3%Missouri’s chance to win, 96% to 99%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 0:06Crowder 55-yd TD pass to Kinchencuts it to 24-17Q2, 0:06 · Missouri 24, Troy 17▼2%Missouri’s chance to win, 99% to 97%▼2%Missouri’s chance to win, 99% to 97%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Missouri scored on 4 of its 13 drives; Troy on 3 of its 13.
Missouri’s drives are teal, Troy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Waited awhile to call a time out just to make that decision.”
How fans reacted
Quiet
It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.
The jump was quiet; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Missouri’s chance to make the playoff rose from 40% to 44%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Missouri 27, Troy 17
Troy covered +26.5 by 16.5. The total, 44, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | Troy | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 323 | 230 |
| Passing | 18 of 32, 230 yds | 10 of 19, 91 yds |
| Rushing | 40 for 93 yds | 28 for 139 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 13 |
| Third down | 7 of 17 | 2 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 60 yds | 9 for 90 yds |
| Time of possession | 37:23 | 22:37 |
Troy leaders
- Passing Will Crowder 18 of 32, 230 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Gavin Griffin 17 for 56 yds; Jaheim Merriweather 9 for 44 yds
- Receiving TK Keyes 2 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Howard Kinchen 5 for 80 yds, 1 TD
Missouri leaders
- Passing Austin Simmons 10 of 19, 91 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jamal Roberts 22 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Xai'Shaun Edwards 3 for 9 yds
- Receiving Donovan Olugbode 3 for 31 yds, 1 TD; Cayden Lee 4 for 30 yds
No rain and calm
92° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 8
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 69 other games played at Memorial Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 62° and 83°.
September game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Columbia airport, 10 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Troy · 2-0
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 119th now.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last two games
Missouri · 2-0
Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 39th now.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Missouri
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14
- Wk 2Wat Kansas38-21
Troy
- Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
Power rating by week
Missouri is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Missouri’s explosive plays against Troy, 64 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Missouri’s explosive plays against Troy’s defense
Missouri offense, 89th percentile · Troy defense, 25th
Troy’s passing EPA against Missouri’s defense
Troy offense, 22nd percentile · Missouri defense, 76th
Troy’s success rate against Missouri’s defense
Troy offense, 29th percentile · Missouri defense, 77th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Missouri leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2002 · Missouri has won the last 2
- 2019Missouri 42-10
- 2005Missouri 52-21
- 2004Troy 24-14
- 2002Missouri 44-7
Each line is Missouri’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Troy fans are in a better mood than Missouri fans (91st vs 4th among FBS fanbases), even with Missouri favored.
- Model · 88%
- Line · 98%
- Missouri fans · 4th
- Troy fans · 91st
Missouri favored by 26.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
Missouri by 26.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Troy.
Spread: −27.5 → −26.5
The books’ cut: 3.4%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 86° at kickoff.
Troy at Missouri · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia
- 86°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 83weather score, Mixed
- 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 93, against 83 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 55, Rough
- 11:45 am: 52, Rough
- 1 pm: 51, Rough
- 2:30 pm: 54, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 57, Rough
- 6 pm: 83, Mixed (this game)
- 6:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 93, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Missouri is worth +6.5 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.
75% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (38-13 home, 16-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.7 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 610 miles to get here.