Troy at Missouri
Missouri (#20, 2‑0) hosts Troy (2‑0). The market has Missouri favored by 26.5. The model gives Missouri a 85% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Troy · 2-0
Picked #113 in the preseason · now #122.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 34–17 vs Alabama State #136 of 669
won by 17 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 24–21 vs Sam Houston #159 of 669
won by 3 as a 16.5-point favorite
Last two games
Missouri · 2-0
Picked #38 in the preseason · now #39 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 38–21 @ Kansas #77 of 669
won by 17 as a 4-point favorite
W 54–14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #252 of 669
won by 40 as a 55.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Missouri leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2002 · Missouri has won the last 2
- 2019Missouri 42–10
- 2005Missouri 52–21
- 2004Troy 24–14
- 2002Missouri 44–7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Troy
The chip · vs the blue bloodsTroy's whole self-image is built on one thing: walking into an SEC stadium as a heavy underdog and winning. Fans believe the big Alabama programs and the national media see Troy as a paycheck opponent, and there is nothing they enjoy more than proving otherwise on a Saturday in Baton Rouge or Athens.
What this game touches
One step short in 2025. Gerad Parker engineered a four-win improvement and a Sun Belt West title in 2025, then Troy lost the conference championship to James Madison 31-14 and dropped its bowl to Jacksonville State 17-13 — a strong year that stopped just short of the trophy Troy measures itself by.
Missouri
The chip · vs the national mediaFans remember every analyst who called the SEC jump a mistake in 2012, and they note that even after two division titles and three top-15 finishes, the previews still treat Missouri as the league's afterthought.
What this game touches
Five yards from the title game. The 2007 team rose to No. 1 in the BCS before losing the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma — the closest Missouri has come to playing for it all, and the standing definition of the program's almost.
Best players
Troy
- TK Keyes (WR) · 167 receiving yards
- TJ Thompson (LB) · 11 tackles
- Jaheim Merriweather (RB) · 149 rushing yards
Missouri
- Donovan Olugbode (WR) · 237 receiving yards
- Cayden Lee (WR) · 200 receiving yards
- Austin Simmons (QB) · 544 passing yards — Heisman odds: 41st (+6000)
The line, and the room
Troy fans are feeling better about their season (87th percentile) than Missouri fans are (8th) — even with Missouri favored here.
- Model · 85%
- Market · 98%
- Missouri fans · 8th
- Troy fans · 87th
Home −26.5 · O/U 50.5
Conditions
96°F · 11 mph wind
Missouri is worth +5.9 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
73% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (35–13 home, 16–23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 610 miles to get here.
Recent games
Missouri
- Wk 1Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14
- Wk 2Wat Kansas38-21
Troy
- Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
- Wk 2Wvs Alabama State34-17
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −27.5 → −26.5 · Total: 49.5 → 50.5
Book hold: 3.2%