Louisiana beats Arkansas State 23-20

Team pages: Arkansas State · Louisiana

Arkansas State2-320
Louisiana4-123Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Cajun Field, Lafayette, La. · Crowd 21,211ESPN+

Louisiana beat Arkansas State 23-20.

We had Louisiana favored. It won.

Next: Arkansas State lost to South Alabama 56-49, Thu Oct 8

Next: Louisiana lost to Louisiana Tech 32-31, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Sterner 37-yd field goal, Louisiana goes ahead 23-20 (Q4, 0:00). Louisiana went from 80% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Louisiana a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Louisiana was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

Favored the whole way: Louisiana never fell below 50%.

Arkansas State never had better than a 50% chance.

FinalLouisiana 23-20 Arkansas StateLouisiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q454% at halfLouisianaWon23-2012+11+20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q454% at halfLouisianaWon23-2012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q446% at halfLouisianaLost20-2312−11Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q446% at halfLouisianaLost20-2312Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:54Garner 13-yd TD run, Louisiana goes ahead 17-13Louisiana 64% → 75% (+11)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Sterner 37-yd field goal, Louisiana goes ahead 23-20Louisiana 80% → 100% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:54Garner 13-yd TD run, Louisiana goes ahead 17-13Arkansas State 36% → 25% (−11)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Sterner 37-yd field goal, Louisiana goes ahead 23-20Arkansas State 20% → 0% (−20)
Louisiana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Louisiana -4.5), at 69% for Louisiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Louisiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:39Smith 13-yd runfumblesQ1, 8:39 · Louisiana 0, Arkansas State 0▼11%Louisiana’s chance to win, 76% to 65%▼11%Louisiana’s chance to win, 76% to 65%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 0:31Owens 21-yd TD pass to BonelliArkansas State goes ahead 10-7Q2, 0:31 · Louisiana 7, Arkansas State 10▼9%Louisiana’s chance to win, 67% to 58%▼9%Louisiana’s chance to win, 67% to 58%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Louisiana scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Arkansas State on 4 of its 8.

Louisiana’s drives are teal, Arkansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 33DownsLouisiana: Fumble, from 67 yards out to 18FumbleArkansas State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 82PuntLouisiana: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntQ2Louisiana: Punt, from 93 yards out to 55PuntArkansas State: Field goal, from 84 yards out to 8Field goalLouisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntArkansas State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: End of half, from 72 yards out to 69End of halfQ3Louisiana: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 20Field goalArkansas State: Field goal, from 18 yards out to 4Field goalLouisiana: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Arkansas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalArkansas State: Punt, from 69 yards out to 66PuntLouisiana: Field goal, from 93 yards out to 21Field goal

From Arkansas State’s side

Arkansas State’s best moment: Smith 13-yd run, fumbles (Q1 8:39). It lifted Arkansas State’s win chance by 11 points.

What it cost

Louisiana’s chance to win the conference rose from 20% to 22%.

Win the conference

Arkansas State · lost2% → ▼1%
Louisiana · won20% → ▲22%20%▲ 22%

Before the game (October 3, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Louisiana 23, Arkansas State 20

Arkansas State covered +4.5 by 1.5. The total, 43, stayed under 49.5.

Arkansas StateLouisianaTotal yardsArkansas State 293Louisiana 435293435Passing yardsArkansas State 206Louisiana 189206189Rushing yardsArkansas State 87Louisiana 24687246First downsArkansas State 16Louisiana 261626TurnoversArkansas State 0Louisiana 101Time of possessionArkansas State 25:52Louisiana 34:0825:5234:08
Team totalsArkansas StateLouisiana
Total yards293435
Passing20 of 31, 206 yds18 of 21, 189 yds
Rushing23 for 87 yds42 for 246 yds
First downs1626
Third down5 of 115 of 10
Fourth down0 of 11 of 1
Turnovers01
Penalties2 for 15 yds4 for 29 yds
Time of possession25:5234:08

Arkansas State leaders

  • Passing Trey Owens 20 of 31, 206 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Solomon Baggett 12 for 51 yds, 1 TD; Trey Owens 5 for 13 yds
  • Receiving Chauncy Cobb 8 for 65 yds; Hunter Summers 4 for 52 yds

Louisiana leaders

  • Passing D'Wayne' Winfield 18 of 21, 189 yds
  • Rushing JJ Garner 7 for 78 yds, 1 TD; D'Wayne' Winfield 14 for 64 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Kedarius Wade 1 for 36 yds; Caden Jensen 4 for 30 yds

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Cajun Field

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana favoredArkansas State favored100%Win chanceLouisianaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Louisiana favoredArkansas State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left9:58 p.m.
Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23 · Louisiana 100% to win
no rain · 78°
Sterner 37-yd field goal, Louisiana goes ahead 23-20

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lafayette airport, 3.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Arkansas State · 2-2

Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 152nd now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State #155 of 668

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 17-14 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 36%, high better than 99%.

L 7-31 @ TCU #46 of 668

lost by 24 as an 18.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 7-31 at TCU. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 52-7 vs West Georgia #247 of 668

won by 45 as a 31.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 52-7 vs West Georgia. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 24-42 @ Memphis #97 of 668

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 24-42 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 38%.

Last 4 games

Louisiana · 3-1

Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-7 @ Charlotte #168 of 668

won by 27 as a 9.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 34-7 at Charlotte. Chance to win started at 70%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 21-14 vs UAB #63 of 668

won by 7 as a 7-point favorite

Louisiana won 21-14 vs UAB. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 30-49 @ USCTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 19 as a 30.5-point underdog

Louisiana lost 30-49 at USC. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 38-7 vs Lamar #143 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Louisiana won 38-7 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 92%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Louisiana

Wk 1: W 38-7 vs Lamar▲31LamarWk 2: L 30-49 at USC▼19USCWk 3: W 21-14 vs UAB▲7UABWk 4: W 34-7 at Charlotte▲27Charlotte
  • Wk 1Wvs Lamar38-7
  • Wk 2Lat USC30-49
  • Wk 3Wvs UAB21-14
  • Wk 4Wat Charlotte34-7

Arkansas State

Wk 1: L 24-42 at Memphis▼18MemphisWk 2: W 52-7 vs West Georgia▲45West GeorgiaWk 3: L 7-31 at TCU▼24TCUWk 4: W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State▲3Kennesaw St.
  • Wk 1Lat Memphis24-42
  • Wk 2Wvs West Georgia52-7
  • Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
  • Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14

Power rating by week

Louisiana is rated 11.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

8-1-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4LouisianaArkansas State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Louisiana, 86 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense

    86 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 14th percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th

  2. Louisiana’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense

    46 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana offense, 49th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd

  3. Arkansas State’s EPA/play against Louisiana’s defense

    38 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 54th percentile · Louisiana defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arkansas StateLouisiana
EPA/play, offense
Arkansas State · 54Louisiana · 53
EPA/play, defense
Arkansas State · 22Louisiana · 92
Success rate, offense
Arkansas State · 81Louisiana · 55
Success rate, defense
Arkansas State ·…Louisiana · 55
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arkansas State ·…Louisiana · 40
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arkansas State · 52Louisiana · 100
Rush EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 61Louisiana · 76
Rush EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 57Louisiana · 99
Pass EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 42Louisiana · 49
Pass EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 3Louisiana · 50

The series

Louisiana leads the series 28-18

46 meetings since 1973 · Louisiana has won the last 2

Louisiana wonArkansas State won1973: Arkansas State by 141974: Arkansas State by 221975: Arkansas State by 221976: Louisiana by 91977: Arkansas State by 21978: Arkansas State by 101979: Louisiana by 41980: Louisiana by 31981: Arkansas State by 111982: Arkansas State by 71988: Arkansas State by 171989: Louisiana by 11990: Louisiana by 11991: Louisiana by 41992: Arkansas State by 131993: Louisiana by 161994: Louisiana by 261995: Louisiana by 241996: Louisiana by 111997: Louisiana by 31998: Louisiana by 21999: Arkansas State by 42001: Arkansas State by 62002: Louisiana by 32004: Louisiana by 32005: Arkansas State by 32006: Louisiana by 152007: Arkansas State by 312008: Louisiana by 52009: Louisiana by 32010: Louisiana by 72011: Arkansas State by 92012: Arkansas State by 232013: Louisiana by 162014: Louisiana by 152015: Arkansas State by 102016: Louisiana by 52017: Arkansas State by 442018: Louisiana by 42019: Louisiana by 172020: Louisiana by 72021: Louisiana by 12022: Louisiana by 202023: Arkansas State by 202024: Louisiana by 362025: Louisiana by 419732025
  • 2025Louisiana 34-30Louisiana won 34-30 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 34%, low 14%, high better than 99%.
  • 2024Louisiana 55-19Louisiana won 55-19 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 81%, low 77%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Arkansas State 37-17Louisiana lost 17-37 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 68%, low under 1%, high 79%.
  • 2022Louisiana 38-18Louisiana won 38-18 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 67%, low 60%, high better than 99%.
  • 2021Louisiana 28-27Louisiana won 28-27 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 85%, low 48%, high 96%.

Each line is Louisiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisiana is 5-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (89th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 94%
  • Line · 64%
  • Louisiana fans · 89th
  • Arkansas State fans · 0th

Louisiana favored by 4.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Louisiana by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Louisiana.

opened −4now −4.5

Spread: −4 → −4.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 83° at kickoff.

Arkansas State at Louisiana · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Cajun Field, Lafayette

  • 83°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 92weather score, Comfortable
  • Bestof the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's five kickoff times. At Cajun Field that day, a 11 am kickoff would have scored 46, against 92 at 6:45 pm.

  • 11 am: 46, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 56, Rough
  • 3:15 pm: 59, Rough
  • 6 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 6:45 pm: 92, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Louisiana is worth +4.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.

73% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (32-12 home, 31-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.6 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 397 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings