Arkansas State beats Kennesaw State 17-14
Team pages: Kennesaw State · Arkansas State
Arkansas State beat Kennesaw State 17-14. Share this game
We had Arkansas State favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Owens 2-yd TD run, ties it 14-14 (Q3, 1:19). Arkansas State went from 39% to 65% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas State a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas State was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.
A tight one: Arkansas State bottomed out at 36% and won.
Kennesaw State never had better than a 64% chance.
Arkansas State 17-14 Kennesaw State
Arkansas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Kennesaw State 14-17 Arkansas StateKennesaw State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:24PenaltyWoods 6-yd TD run, Kennesaw State goes ahead 14-7Arkansas State 58% → 37% (−21)
- 2Q3 1:19Owens 2-yd TD run, ties it 14-14Arkansas State 39% → 65% (+26)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:24PenaltyWoods 6-yd TD run, Kennesaw State goes ahead 14-7Kennesaw State 42% → 63% (+21)
- 2Q3 1:19Owens 2-yd TD run, ties it 14-14Kennesaw State 61% → 35% (−26)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Arkansas State -6.5), at 74% for Arkansas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Arkansas State scored on 3 of its 9 drives; Kennesaw State on 2 of its 9.
Arkansas State’s drives are teal, Kennesaw State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Kennesaw State’s side
Kennesaw State’s best moment: Woods 6-yd TD run, Kennesaw State goes ahead 14-7 (Q3 4:24). It lifted Kennesaw State’s win chance by 21 points.
Box score
Arkansas State 17, Kennesaw State 14
Kennesaw State covered +6.5 by 3.5. The total, 31, stayed under 53.5.
| Team totals | Kennesaw State | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 326 | 363 |
| Passing | 17 of 24, 129 yds | 24 of 31, 244 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 197 yds | 31 for 119 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 22 |
| Third down | 7 of 13 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 7 for 65 yds | 7 for 55 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:20 | 32:40 |
Kennesaw State leaders
- Passing Rickie Collins 17 of 24, 129 yds
- Rushing Alan Woods III 19 for 101 yds, 2 TD; Rickie Collins 9 for 52 yds
- Receiving Javon Rogers 2 for 45 yds; Brayden Munroe 5 for 34 yds
Arkansas State leaders
- Passing Trey Owens 24 of 31, 244 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Solomon Baggett 13 for 63 yds; James Lee 5 for 27 yds
- Receiving Jaylen Bonelli 6 for 78 yds; Hunter Summers 7 for 57 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the northeast, gusts to 15
Game-day temperatures at Centennial Bank Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Jonesboro airport, 1.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Kennesaw State · 1-2
Rated 158th in our preseason ratings, 153rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arkansas State · 1-2
Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 151st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Arkansas State
- Wk 1Lat Memphis24-42
- Wk 2Wvs West Georgia52-7
- Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
Kennesaw State
- Wk 1Wvs West Georgia47-0
- Wk 2Lvs Georgia State17-31
- Wk 3Lat Tennessee9-42
Power rating by week
Arkansas State is rated 0.4 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Kennesaw State, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Kennesaw State’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 14th percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 90th
Arkansas State’s success rate against Kennesaw State’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 81st percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 39th
Kennesaw State’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense
Kennesaw State offense, 31st percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Kennesaw State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Kennesaw State won the last meeting
- 2025Kennesaw State 28-21
Each line is Arkansas State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Kennesaw State fans are in a better mood than Arkansas State fans (21st vs 11th among FBS fanbases), even with Arkansas State favored.
- Model · 61%
- Line · 70%
- Arkansas State fans · 11th
- Kennesaw State fans · 21st
Arkansas State favored by 6.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Arkansas State by 6.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Arkansas State.
Spread: −5.5 → −6.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 76° at kickoff.
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro
- 76°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Centennial Bank Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 79, against 100 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 83, Mixed
- 2:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 3:15 pm: 83, Mixed
- 5 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 6 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal
- 8 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Arkansas State is worth +4.3 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 54th percentile.
51% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (21-20 home, 16-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 368 miles to get here.