Florida Atlantic routs UL Monroe 45-17
Team pages: Florida Atlantic · UL Monroe
Florida Atlantic routed UL Monroe 45-17. Share this game
We had Florida Atlantic favored. It won.
Next: Florida Atlantic beat Texas Southern 66-10, Sat Oct 3
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida Atlantic a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida Atlantic was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.
UL Monroe · Q2 11:43
Florida Atlantic 45-17 UL MonroeFlorida Atlantic wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UL Monroe 17-45 Florida AtlanticUL Monroe lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:5638-yd puntFlorida Atlantic 68% → 79% (+11)
- 2Q2 14:06Veltkamp 26-yd TD pass to Henry, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 14-7Florida Atlantic 76% → 87% (+11)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:5638-yd puntUL Monroe 32% → 21% (−11)
- 2Q2 14:06Veltkamp 26-yd TD pass to Henry, Florida Atlantic goes ahead 14-7UL Monroe 24% → 13% (−11)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida Atlantic -11.5), at 73% for Florida Atlantic (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Florida Atlantic scored on 6 of its 11 drives; UL Monroe on 3 of its 12.
Florida Atlantic’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17
Florida Atlantic covered −11.5 by 16.5. The total, 62, went over 58.5.
| Team totals | Florida Atlantic | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 567 | 332 |
| Passing | 31 of 42, 333 yds | 23 of 30, 278 yds |
| Rushing | 47 for 234 yds | 25 for 54 yds |
| First downs | 28 | 13 |
| Third down | 11 of 20 | 4 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 47 yds | 5 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:57 | 29:03 |
Florida Atlantic leaders
- Passing Caden Veltkamp 29 of 38, 314 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Ethan Ervin 21 for 139 yds, 1 TD; Leonard Farrow 14 for 64 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kelby Valsin 9 for 123 yds; Dom Henry 9 for 121 yds, 2 TD
UL Monroe leaders
- Passing Aidan Armenta 23 of 29, 278 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing CJ Phillip 6 for 26 yds; Marcellus Jackson 2 for 15 yds
- Receiving LT Robinson 2 for 79 yds, 1 TD; JP Coulter 3 for 61 yds
No rain through the game
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Malone Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Monroe Regional airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Florida Atlantic · 2-1
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings, 116th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 8-point win over Navy as a 4.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UL Monroe · 0-3
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 171st now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
UL Monroe
- Wk 1Lat Mississippi State13-62
- Wk 2Lat UAB20-26
- Wk 3Lvs SE Louisiana35-38
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 1Lat Florida21-66
- Wk 2Wvs Navy38-30
- Wk 3Wvs Florida International16-10
Power rating by week
Florida Atlantic is rated 3.6 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida Atlantic’s EPA/play against UL Monroe, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida Atlantic’s EPA/play against UL Monroe’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 71st percentile · UL Monroe defense, 3rd
Florida Atlantic’s passing EPA against UL Monroe’s defense
Florida Atlantic offense, 67th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 5th
UL Monroe’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 19th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 4th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
UL Monroe leads the series 7-2
9 meetings since 2004 · UL Monroe has won the last 4
- 2012UL Monroe 35-14
- 2011UL Monroe 26-0
- 2010UL Monroe 20-17
- 2009UL Monroe 27-25
- 2008Florida Atlantic 29-28
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UL Monroe’s chances here.
Florida Atlantic favored by 11.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
Florida Atlantic by 11.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UL Monroe.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +13.5 → +11.5 · Total: 59.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 77° at kickoff.
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Malone Stadium, Monroe
- 77°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Malone Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 68, against 100 at 7 pm.
- 11 am: 76, Mixed
- 2:30 pm: 68, Rough
- 3:15 pm: 70, Rough
- 5 pm: 85, Mixed
- 6 pm: 94, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
- 8 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
UL Monroe is worth +6.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
38% at home, 13% on the road against FBS opponents (15-24 home, 7-46 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 835 miles to get here.