Southern Miss beats UL Monroe 35-21
Team pages: Southern Miss · UL Monroe
Southern Miss beat UL Monroe 35-21. Share this game
We had Southern Miss favored. It won.
Next: Southern Miss vs James Madison, Thu Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ET · Southern Miss underdog by 14.5
Next: UL Monroe at Arkansas State, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET · UL Monroe underdog by 14.5
How it swung
The turning point: Armenta 83-yd TD pass to Jackson, cuts it to 10-7 (Q3, 13:15). Southern Miss went from 83% to 65% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern Miss a 66% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern Miss was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.
Southern Miss won by 14, after dipping to 44% in the first quarter.
UL Monroe never had better than a 56% chance.
UL Monroe · Q3 13:15TargetingQ4 12:18
Southern Miss 35-21 UL MonroeSouthern Miss wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UL Monroe 21-35 Southern MissUL Monroe lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:484th and 2Robinson 33-yd TD run, Southern Miss goes ahead 7-0Southern Miss 58% → 74% (+16)
- 2Q3 13:15Armenta 83-yd TD pass to Jackson, cuts it to 10-7Southern Miss 83% → 65% (−18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:484th and 2Robinson 33-yd TD run, Southern Miss goes ahead 7-0UL Monroe 42% → 26% (−16)
- 2Q3 13:15Armenta 83-yd TD pass to Jackson, cuts it to 10-7UL Monroe 17% → 35% (+18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Southern Miss -3.5), at 49% for Southern Miss (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Southern Miss scored on 6 of its 15 drives; UL Monroe on 3 of its 14.
Southern Miss’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UL Monroe’s side
UL Monroe’s best moment: Armenta 83-yd TD pass to Jackson, cuts it to 10-7 (Q3 13:15). It lifted UL Monroe’s win chance by 18 points.
Box score
Southern Miss 35, UL Monroe 21
Southern Miss covered −3.5 by 10.5. The total, 56, went over 54.5.
| Team totals | Southern Miss | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 379 | 359 |
| Passing | 15 of 30, 130 yds | 19 of 34, 202 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 249 yds | 44 for 157 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 23 |
| Third down | 5 of 18 | 7 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 9 for 87 yds | 5 for 46 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:20 | 32:40 |
Southern Miss leaders
- Passing Landy Lyddy 15 of 30, 130 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Steven Robinson 21 for 151 yds, 1 TD; Jamarice Wilder 15 for 104 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Mario Sanders II 4 for 31 yds; Grant Page 2 for 26 yds, 1 TD
UL Monroe leaders
- Passing Aidan Armenta 19 of 34, 202 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Donald Chaney Jr. 10 for 54 yds; Zachary Palmer-Smith 8 for 31 yds
- Receiving Marcellus Jackson 1 for 83 yds, 1 TD; CJ Phillip 3 for 43 yds
No rain through the game
78° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 53° and 77°.
October game-day temperatures at Malone Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Monroe Regional airport, 2.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Southern Miss · 2-5
Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 127th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Louisiana as an 11.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UL Monroe · 1-6
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 207th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Troy as a 13.5-point underdog.
Week by week
UL Monroe
- Wk 3Lvs SE Louisiana35-38
- Wk 4Lvs Florida Atlantic17-45
- Wk 5Lat South Alabama35-52
- Wk 7Lvs Louisiana Tech0-24
- Wk 8Wat Troy21-14
Southern Miss
- Wk 3Lvs UConn20-48
- Wk 4Lat Tulane21-24
- Wk 6Lat Troy34-55
- Wk 7Lvs Arkansas State13-23
- Wk 8Wvs Louisiana35-31
Power rating by week
Southern Miss is rated 5.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UL Monroe’s explosive plays against Southern Miss, 52 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UL Monroe’s explosive plays against Southern Miss’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 6th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 58th
Southern Miss’s rushing EPA against UL Monroe’s defense
Southern Miss offense, 55th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 6th
UL Monroe’s EPA/play against Southern Miss’s defense
UL Monroe offense, 5th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 29th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Southern Miss leads the series 7-3
10 meetings since 1982 · Southern Miss won the last meeting
- 2025Southern Miss 49-21
- 2024UL Monroe 38-21
- 2023Southern Miss 24-7
- 2022Southern Miss 20-10
- 2018UL Monroe 21-20
Each line is UL Monroe’s chance to win through that meeting. UL Monroe is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UL Monroe’s chances here.
Southern Miss favored by 3.5 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Southern Miss by 3.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Southern Miss.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +3 → +3.5 · Total: 52.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UL Monroe is worth +6.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.
38% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (15-25 home, 8-46 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.9 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 181 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- UL Monroe11th1-2
- Southern Miss12th1-2