Arkansas State beats Southern Miss 23-13

Team pages: Arkansas State · Southern Miss

Arkansas State3-423
Southern Miss1-513Final
Sat, Oct 17 · M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Miss. · Crowd 22,585ESPN+

Arkansas State beat Southern Miss 23-13.

We had Arkansas State favored. It won.

Next: Arkansas State vs Georgia State, Sat Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Arkansas State underdog by 2.5

Next: Southern Miss vs Louisiana, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET · Southern Miss underdog by 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas State a 50% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas State was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.

Favored the whole way: Arkansas State never fell below 58%.

Southern Miss never had better than a 41% chance.

FinalArkansas State 23-13 Southern MissArkansas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q480% at halfArkansas StateWon23-13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q480% at halfArkansas StateWon23-13Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q420% at halfArkansas StateLowest 0%Lost13-23Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q420% at halfArkansas StateLowest 0%Lost13-23Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Arkansas State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Arkansas State -5.5), at 59% for Arkansas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arkansas State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 0:31Lyddy intercepted by Henderson at the ASU49Q1, 0:31 · Arkansas State 6, Southern Miss 0▲9%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 65% to 74%▲9%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 65% to 74%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 10:48Clay 2-yd TD runArkansas State leads 13-0Q2, 10:48 · Arkansas State 13, Southern Miss 013-0score after the play13-0score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 6:56Lyddy 16-yd TD pass to Kilgorecuts it to 13-7Q2, 6:56 · Arkansas State 13, Southern Miss 7▼3%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 82% to 79%▼3%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 82% to 79%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q3, 12:33Owens sacked for a 5-yd lossQ3, 12:33 · Arkansas State 16, Southern Miss 716-7score after the play16-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 8:57Owens sacked for a 6-yd lossQ3, 8:57 · Arkansas State 16, Southern Miss 7▼2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 85% to 83%▼2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 85% to 83%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 4:43Lyddy intercepted by McGhee at the ASU09Q3, 4:43 · Arkansas State 16, Southern Miss 716-7score after the play16-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 13:10Carter 2-yd TD runArkansas State leads 23-7Q4, 13:10 · Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 7▲6%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 92% to 98%▲6%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 92% to 98%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 10:02Robinson 1-yd TD runcuts it to 23-13Q4, 10:02 · Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13▼2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 97% to 95%▼2%Arkansas State’s chance to win, 97% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Arkansas State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Southern Miss on 2 of its 11.

Arkansas State’s drives are teal, Southern Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalSouthern Miss: Punt, from 84 yards out to 77PuntArkansas State: Field goal, from 62 yards out to 23Field goalSouthern Miss: Interception, from 75 yards out to 54InterceptionArkansas State: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Southern Miss: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntArkansas State: Punt, from 68 yards out to 70PuntSouthern Miss: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 27Field goalSouthern Miss: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 38DownsQ3Southern Miss: Missed field goal, from 62 yards out to 15Missed FGArkansas State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 83PuntSouthern Miss: Punt, from 71 yards out to 50PuntArkansas State: Punt, from 86 yards out to 75PuntSouthern Miss: Interception, from 54 yards out to 39InterceptionArkansas State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 83PuntSouthern Miss: Turned over on downs, from 38 yards out to 31DownsArkansas State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Southern Miss: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 70PuntSouthern Miss: Turned over on downs, from 63 yards out to 59DownsArkansas State: End of game, from 41 yards out to 11End of game

What it cost

Southern Miss’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.

Win the conference

Arkansas State · won0% → ▲1%
Southern Miss · lost3% → ▼1%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Arkansas State plays vs Georgia State on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Southern Miss plays vs Louisiana on Sat Oct 24 with a 1% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13

Arkansas State covered −5.5 by 4.5. The total, 36, stayed under 61.5.

Arkansas StateSouthern MissTotal yardsArkansas State 304Southern Miss 289304289Passing yardsArkansas State 170Southern Miss 208170208Rushing yardsArkansas State 134Southern Miss 8113481First downsArkansas State 23Southern Miss 142314TurnoversArkansas State 0Southern Miss 202Time of possessionArkansas State 40:08Southern Miss 19:5240:0819:52
Team totalsArkansas StateSouthern Miss
Total yards304289
Passing17 of 25, 170 yds18 of 34, 208 yds
Rushing51 for 134 yds25 for 81 yds
First downs2314
Third down4 of 175 of 14
Fourth down3 of 30 of 3
Turnovers02
Penalties5 for 50 yds7 for 53 yds
Time of possession40:0819:52

Arkansas State leaders

  • Passing Trey Owens 17 of 25, 170 yds
  • Rushing Solomon Baggett 15 for 48 yds; Kenyon Clay 10 for 30 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Chauncy Cobb 4 for 50 yds; Jaylen Bonelli 4 for 37 yds

Southern Miss leaders

  • Passing Landy Lyddy 18 of 34, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Steven Robinson 21 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Jamarice Wilder 2 for 9 yds
  • Receiving Mario Sanders II 6 for 88 yds; Steven Robinson 5 for 33 yds

No rain and calm

69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the north, gusts to 20

The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 60° and 76°.

October game-day temperatures at M. M. Roberts Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Southern Miss favoredArkansas State favored0%Win chanceSouthern MissRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Southern Miss favoredArkansas State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:51 left6:03 p.m.
Arkansas State 0, Southern Miss 0 · Southern Miss 41% to win
no rain · wind 11 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 20 · 68°
Owens 5-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hattiesburg Muni airport, 6.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Arkansas State · 2-4

Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 131st now, up 29 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 49-56 vs South Alabama #85 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

Arkansas State lost 49-56 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 67%, low 2%, high 80%.

L 20-23 @ Louisiana #35 of 668

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 20-23 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 50%.

W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State #155 of 668

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 17-14 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 36%, high better than 99%.

L 7-31 @ TCU #46 of 668

lost by 24 as an 18.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 7-31 at TCU. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 52-7 vs West Georgia #247 of 668

won by 45 as a 31.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 52-7 vs West Georgia. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 24-42 @ Memphis #97 of 668

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 24-42 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 38%.

Last three games

Southern Miss · 1-4

Rated 57th in our preseason ratings, 113th now.

Three straight losses.

L 34-55 @ Troy #101 of 668

lost by 21 as a 9.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 34-55 at Troy. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 21-24 @ Tulane #77 of 668

lost by 3 as a 17.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 21-24 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 61%.

L 20-48 vs UConn #109 of 668

lost by 28 as a 3.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 20-48 vs UConn. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 8-43 @ Auburn #62 of 668

lost by 35 as a 32.5-point underdog

Southern Miss lost 8-43 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 49-3 vs Alcorn State #181 of 668

won by 46 as a 20.5-point favorite

Southern Miss won 49-3 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Southern Miss

Wk 1: W 49-3 vs Alcorn State▲46Alcorn S…Wk 2: L 8-43 at Auburn▼35AuburnWk 3: L 20-48 vs UConn▼28UConnWk 4: L 21-24 at Tulane▼3TulaneWk 6: L 34-55 at Troy▼21Troy
  • Wk 1Wvs Alcorn State49-3
  • Wk 2Lat Auburn8-43
  • Wk 3Lvs UConn20-48
  • Wk 4Lat Tulane21-24
  • Wk 6Lat Troy34-55

Arkansas State

Wk 2: W 52-7 vs West Georgia▲45W. Georg…Wk 3: L 7-31 at TCU▼24TCUWk 4: W 17-14 vs Kennesaw State▲3Kennesaw…Wk 5: L 20-23 at Louisiana▼3LouisianaWk 6: L 49-56 vs South Alabama▼7S. Alaba…
  • Wk 2Wvs West Georgia52-7
  • Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
  • Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14
  • Wk 5Lat Louisiana20-23
  • Wk 6Lvs South Alabama49-56

Power rating by week

Southern Miss is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

4-3-9Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Southern MissArkansas State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss, 53 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Arkansas State’s rushing EPA against Southern Miss’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 61st percentile · Southern Miss defense, 8th

  2. Arkansas State’s success rate against Southern Miss’s defense

    53 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 81st percentile · Southern Miss defense, 28th

  3. Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Southern Miss’s defense

    23 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 14th percentile · Southern Miss defense, 37th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arkansas StateSouthern Miss
EPA/play, offense
Arkansas State · 54Southern Miss ·…
EPA/play, defense
Arkansas State · 22Southern Miss · 16
Success rate, offense
Arkansas State · 81Southern Miss · 38
Success rate, defense
Arkansas State ·…Southern Miss · 28
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arkansas State ·…Southern Miss · 39
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arkansas State · 52Southern Miss · 37
Rush EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 61Southern Miss · 38
Rush EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 57Southern Miss · 8
Pass EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 42Southern Miss · 26
Pass EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 3Southern Miss · 21

The series

Southern Miss leads the series 9-3

12 meetings since 1963 · Southern Miss won the last meeting

Southern Miss wonArkansas State won1963: Southern Miss by 251977: Arkansas State by 41978: Southern Miss by 151979: Southern Miss by 81980: Southern Miss by 352005: Southern Miss by 122007: Southern Miss by 62008: Southern Miss by 32022: Southern Miss by 12023: Arkansas State by 72024: Arkansas State by 162025: Southern Miss by 619632025
  • 2025Southern Miss 27-21Southern Miss won 27-21 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 71%, low 48%, high better than 99%.
  • 2024Arkansas State 44-28Southern Miss lost 28-44 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 27%.
  • 2023Arkansas State 44-37Southern Miss lost 37-44 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 21%, high 81%.
  • 2022Southern Miss 20-19Southern Miss won 20-19 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 56%, low 2%, high 85%.
  • 2008Southern Miss 27-24

Each line is Southern Miss’s chance to win through that meeting. Southern Miss is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Southern Miss fans are in a better mood than Arkansas State fans (92nd vs 34th among FBS fanbases), even with Arkansas State favored.

  • Model · 50%
  • Line · 33%
  • Southern Miss fans · 92nd
  • Arkansas State fans · 34th

Arkansas State favored by 5.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

Arkansas State by 5.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Southern Miss.

opened +7now +5.5

The total rose 5 points.

opened 56.5now 61.5

Spread: +7 → +5.5 · Total: 56.5 → 61.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Southern Miss is worth +3.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 35th percentile.

35% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 13-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 322 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Sun Belt standings