Georgia State at Arkansas State
Georgia State (4‑2) travels to Arkansas State (3‑4), with Georgia State favored by 2.5. Georgia State’s passing offense is at the 92nd percentile; Arkansas State’s pass defense is at the 3rd.
How they got here
Last three games
Georgia State · 4-2
Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 96th now, up 59 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arkansas State · 3-4
Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 120th now, up 40 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Georgia State’s passing EPA against Arkansas State, 89 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Georgia State’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense
Georgia State offense, 92nd percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd
Georgia State’s success rate against Arkansas State’s defense
Georgia State offense, 77th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 15th
Arkansas State’s explosive plays against Georgia State’s defense
Arkansas State offense, 14th percentile · Georgia State defense, 66th
What’s at stake
Georgia State
- Georgia State needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 98% to get there with a win here, 84% with a loss.
- Georgia State is still shaking off a 27-point loss.
Arkansas State
- Arkansas State needs 3 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 73% to get there with a win here, 36% with a loss.
- Arkansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
Arkansas State leads the series 7-2
9 meetings since 2013 · Arkansas State won the last meeting
- 2024Arkansas State 27-20
- 2021Georgia State 28-20
- 2020Arkansas State 59-52
- 2019Georgia State 52-38
- 2018Arkansas State 51-35
Each line is Arkansas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Georgia State
The chip · vs big brotherEveryone in the metro grew up a Georgia or Georgia Tech fan; Panther fans are the ones who chose the new thing, and they're tired of being told a 2010 startup downtown can't be anybody's real team.
What this game touches
The 1-11 floor. After Shawn Elliott got the Panthers to four bowls, Dell McGee's second year collapsed to 1-11 (0-8), the lone win over an FCS team, nine of eleven losses by double digits — a reminder of how thin the foundation still is when a young program loses its footing.
Arkansas State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsRed Wolves fans say the power programs treat Arkansas State as a vending machine — pull a coach, take the blueprint, move on — and never once look back; Jonesboro says it built the tree the SEC harvests, and it's tired of getting none of the fruit.
What this game touches
The long fade since the dynasty. After five straight Sun Belt championships from 2011-2015 — each won under a coach who immediately left for a bigger job — Arkansas State spent the years since chasing that height, sliding into losing seasons before Butch Jones steadied it; the 2025 team started 1-4 before rallying to 7-6 and a bowl win.
Best players
Georgia State
- Jaydon Hood (LB) · 36 tackles
- Cameran Brown (QB) · 1,291 passing yards
- Coby Owens (LB) · 30 tackles
Arkansas State
- Joe Drew (S) · 64 tackles
- Trey Owens (QB) · 1,631 passing yards
- Five Hamilton (S) · 40 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Cameran Brown (QB) — Georgia State’s leading passer (1,291 passing yards) takes on Arkansas State’s pass defense (3rd percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (55.5 → 58.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Georgia State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (89th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Georgia State favored by 2.5 · Total 58.5
Georgia State by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Georgia State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Centennial Bank Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 85
Georgia State at Arkansas State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7 pm ET · Centennial Bank Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Centennial Bank Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arkansas State is worth +4.3 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 55th percentile.
51% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (21-20 home, 16-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 385 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arkansas State
- Wk 3Lat TCU7-31
- Wk 4Wvs Kennesaw State17-14
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana20-23
- Wk 6Lvs South Alabama49-56
- Wk 7Wat Southern Miss23-13
Georgia State
- Wk 2Wat Kennesaw State31-17
- Wk 3Lat UCF30-44
- Wk 4Wvs Northern Illinois35-14
- Wk 5Wvs Old Dominion42-10
- Wk 7Lat James Madison22-49
Power rating by week
Georgia State is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Georgia State.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 55.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arkansas State11th1-2
- Georgia State8th1-1