James Madison beats Old Dominion 46-20

Team pages: James Madison · Old Dominion

James Madison4-046
Old Dominion1-320Final
Sat, Sep 26 · S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, Va. · Crowd 20,035ESPN+

James Madison beat Old Dominion 46-20.

We had James Madison favored. It won.

Next: James Madison beat Marshall 45-17, Sat Oct 3

Next: Old Dominion lost to Georgia State 42-10, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave James Madison a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (James Madison was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: James Madison never fell below 64%.

Old Dominion never had better than a 36% chance.

FinalJames Madison 46-20 Old DominionJames Madison wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 37 mph
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfJames MadisonWon46-20Scores37 mph gust, the peakGusts
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q490% at halfJames MadisonWon46-20Scores37 mph gust, the peakGusts
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfJames MadisonLowest 0%Lost20-46Scores37 mph gust, the peakGusts
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q410% at halfJames MadisonLowest 0%Lost20-46Scores37 mph gust, the peakGusts

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

James Madison’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (James Madison -7), at 64% for James Madison (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.
The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. A 37 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 98% of games since 2018. Measured at Norfolk Nas/chamber airport, 3.5 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show James Madison’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 11:04Coleman 3-yd TD pass to KellerJames Madison goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:04 · James Madison 7, Old Dominion 0▲8%James Madison’s chance to win, 72% to 80%▲8%James Madison’s chance to win, 72% to 80%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 5:50Coleman 20-yd TD pass to ScottJames Madison leads 14-0Q1, 5:50 · James Madison 14, Old Dominion 0▲9%James Madison’s chance to win, 84% to 93%▲9%James Madison’s chance to win, 84% to 93%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 4:14Huff 23-yd TD pass to Haughtoncuts it to 14-7Q1, 4:14 · James Madison 14, Old Dominion 7▼8%James Madison’s chance to win, 92% to 84%▼8%James Madison’s chance to win, 92% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 12:50Coleman 13-yd TD pass to HarrisonJames Madison leads 23-7Q2, 12:50 · James Madison 23, Old Dominion 723-7score after the play23-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 11:42Coleman 18-yd TD pass to ScottJames Madison leads 30-7Q2, 11:42 · James Madison 30, Old Dominion 7▲2%James Madison’s chance to win, 94% to 96%▲2%James Madison’s chance to win, 94% to 96%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 6:22Coleman intercepted by Crutchfield at the JMU41Q2, 6:22 · James Madison 30, Old Dominion 7▼2%James Madison’s chance to win, 98% to 96%▼2%James Madison’s chance to win, 98% to 96%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

James Madison scored on 9 of its 15 drives; Old Dominion on 4 of its 15.

James Madison’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Old Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 91PuntJames Madison: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntJames Madison: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownJames Madison: Field goal, from 18 yards out to 10Field goalOld Dominion: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsJames Madison: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Old Dominion: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 76FumbleJames Madison: Touchdown, from 24 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 74 yards out to 67PuntJames Madison: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 54 yards out to 58PuntJames Madison: Interception, from 80 yards out to 74InterceptionOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownJames Madison: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 74 yards out to 69PuntJames Madison: Punt, from 90 yards out to 91PuntOld Dominion: Field goal, from 48 yards out to 31Field goalJames Madison: End of half, from 75 yards out to 79End of halfQ3James Madison: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 18Field goalOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntJames Madison: Punt, from 62 yards out to 54PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 95 yards out to 94PuntJames Madison: Field goal, from 33 yards out to 9Field goalOld Dominion: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Field goalQ4James Madison: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalOld Dominion: Interception, from 77 yards out to 77InterceptionJames Madison: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: End of game, from 77 yards out to 52End of game
“Camden Coleman truthers (myself) vindicated”
A James Madison fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

FirstSecondThirdFourthJames Madison fansOld Dominion fansusual

What it cost

James Madison’s chance to make the playoff rose from 13% to 15%.

Make the playoff

James Madison · won13% → ▲15%13%▲ 15%
Old Dominion · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

James Madison · won23% → ▲27%23%▲ 27%
Old Dominion · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20

James Madison covered −7 by 19. The total, 66, went over 44.5.

James MadisonOld DominionTotal yardsJames Madison 405Old Dominion 247405247Passing yardsJames Madison 243Old Dominion 261243261Rushing yardsJames Madison 162Old Dominion -14162-14First downsJames Madison 21Old Dominion 142114TurnoversJames Madison 1Old Dominion 212Time of possessionJames Madison 33:06Old Dominion 26:5433:0626:54
Team totalsJames MadisonOld Dominion
Total yards405247
Passing24 of 42, 243 yds20 of 40, 261 yds
Rushing37 for 162 yds28 for -14 yds
First downs2114
Third down6 of 184 of 16
Fourth down2 of 21 of 2
Turnovers12
Penalties7 for 75 yds13 for 96 yds
Time of possession33:0626:54

James Madison leaders

  • Passing Camden Coleman 24 of 42, 243 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing George Pettaway 16 for 110 yds; Nick Herman 6 for 18 yds
  • Receiving Corey Scott 4 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Harrison 4 for 53 yds, 1 TD

Old Dominion leaders

  • Passing Ryan Huff 20 of 39, 261 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Devin Roche 8 for 18 yds; Maurki James 5 for 13 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving TJ Johnson 5 for 105 yds; Leon Haughton Jr. 4 for 49 yds, 1 TD

Wind all game, gusting to 37 mph at the airport

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 19 mph from the north-northwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 37

A 37 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 98% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 37 mph060 mph
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 16 mphThis game: 37 mph060 mph

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 77°.

September game-day temperatures at S.B. Ballard Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Old Dominion favoredJames Madison favored0%Win chanceOld DominionRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph37 mph gust
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Old Dominion favoredJames Madison favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour204037 mph gust

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 2:06 left8:48 p.m.
James Madison 36, Old Dominion 17 · Old Dominion 3% to win
no rain · wind 19 mph from the north-northwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 29 · 62°
Suarez 27-yd field goal, James Madison leads 36-17

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Norfolk Nas/chamber airport, 3.5 miles away, and Norfolk International Airport, 6.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Royal Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

James Madison · 3-0

Rated 85th in our preseason ratings, 66th now, up 19 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 13-point win over San Diego State as a 3-point underdog.

W 26-13 @ San Diego State #54 of 668

won by 13 as a 3-point underdog

James Madison won 26-13 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 35%, low 35%, high 99%.

W 87-3 vs Wagner #248 of 668

won by 84 as a 46.5-point favorite

James Madison won 87-3 vs Wagner. Never in doubt.

W 20-13 vs Liberty #87 of 668

won by 7 as a 6-point favorite

James Madison won 20-13 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 74%, low 67%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Old Dominion · 1-2

Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 70th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-20 vs East Carolina #82 of 668

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Old Dominion lost 17-20 vs East Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low 22%, high 88%.

L 21-44 @ Virginia Tech #43 of 668

lost by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 21-44 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 31-10 vs Norfolk State #247 of 668

won by 21 as a 41.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 31-10 vs Norfolk State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Old Dominion

Wk 1: W 31-10 vs Norfolk State▲21Norfolk StateWk 2: L 21-44 at Virginia Tech▼23Virginia TechWk 3: L 17-20 vs East Carolina▼3East Carolina
  • Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10
  • Wk 2Lat Virginia Tech21-44
  • Wk 3Lvs East Carolina17-20

James Madison

Wk 1: W 20-13 vs Liberty▲7LibertyWk 2: W 87-3 vs Wagner▲84WagnerWk 3: W 26-13 at San Diego State▲13San Diego State
  • Wk 1Wvs Liberty20-13
  • Wk 2Wvs Wagner87-3
  • Wk 3Wat San Diego State26-13

Power rating by week

James Madison is rated 0.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

2-0-2Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Old DominionJames Madison

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s EPA/play against James Madison, 84 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Old Dominion’s EPA/play against James Madison’s defense

    84 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · James Madison defense, 84th

  2. Old Dominion’s rushing EPA against James Madison’s defense

    84 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 1st percentile · James Madison defense, 85th

  3. James Madison’s explosive plays against Old Dominion’s defense

    27 pointsweakerstronger50th

    James Madison offense, 55th percentile · Old Dominion defense, 82nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

James MadisonOld Dominion
EPA/play, offense
James Madison · 89Old Dominion · 0
EPA/play, defense
James Madison · 84Old Dominion · 85
Success rate, offense
James Madison · 76Old Dominion · 0
Success rate, defense
James Madison · 76Old Dominion · 80
Explosive-play rate, offense
James Madison · 55Old Dominion · 53
Explosive-play rate, defense
James Madison · 36Old Dominion · 82
Rush EPA, offense
James Madison · 91Old Dominion · 1
Rush EPA, defense
James Madison ·…Old Dominion · 82
Pass EPA, offense
James Madison ·…Old Dominion · 3
Pass EPA, defense
James Madison · 74Old Dominion · 75

The series

James Madison leads the series 4-2

6 meetings since 2011 · James Madison has won the last 4

Old Dominion wonJames Madison won2011: Old Dominion by 32012: Old Dominion by 102022: James Madison by 342023: James Madison by 32024: James Madison by 32025: James Madison by 3620112025
  • 2025James Madison 63-27Old Dominion lost 27-63 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 75%.
  • 2024James Madison 35-32Old Dominion lost 32-35 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 41%, low 3%, high 70%.
  • 2023James Madison 30-27Old Dominion lost 27-30 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 25%.
  • 2022James Madison 37-3Old Dominion lost 3-37 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 32%.
  • 2012Old Dominion 38-28

Each line is Old Dominion’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

James Madison fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (71st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 37%
  • Line · 29%
  • Old Dominion fans · 18th
  • James Madison fans · 71st

James Madison favored by 7 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

James Madison by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward James Madison.

opened +4.5now +7

The total fell 6 points.

opened 50.5now 44.5

Spread: +4.5 → +7 · Total: 50.5 → 44.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 63° at kickoff.

James Madison at Old Dominion · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk

  • 63°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 95weather score, Comfortable

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At S.B. Ballard Stadium that day, a 2 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 95 at 6 pm.

  • noon: 95, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 97, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 4 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 5 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 95, Comfortable (this game)
  • 7 pm: 95, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Old Dominion is worth +2.6 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 25th percentile.

42% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (17-23 home, 13-32 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 176 miles to get here.

Where next