The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Brian Kelly

Followed Ed Orgeron. Brian Kelly inherited a Blue Blood LSU and won with it.

The ascent
200–76
2004–now · 4 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

I just wasn’t prepared to do it until we got a full commitment from another Heisman Trophy winner
Well, I think I was mischaracterized, only in the sense that I didn’t leave Notre Dame because they couldn’t win a national championship
Saturday Down South
College football is not in a bad place
Saturday Down South
More than 40, I’ll tell you that
Saturday Down South
I don’t know that I’ve made the decision that I want to get back in, as all the things we’ve talked about, I’d want to see some changes. But I think while you wait, you need to work
Saturday Down South
And so, I need to stay in the game. My first order of business is this next two, three weeks, I’m gonna be visiting some places to see spring ball, get a chance to see some things relative to the football side, the operational side, some of the things we talked about today with NIL, transfer and calendar, and get a temperature in the spring for some things.
Saturday Down South
And so, that’s really my focus right now
Saturday Down South

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 20th career season — faster than 3% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #97 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Central Michigan, 3 seasons
+7.9
Regional Program V → Regional Program IV.
Cincinnati, 4 seasons
+14.7
Regional Program I → National Program II.
Notre Dame, 12 seasons
+12.6
Power Program II → Power Program I.
LSU, 4 seasons (active)
−4.4
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Notre Dame2010–2021▲ 1.1ptLSU2022–2025▲ 6.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Notre Dame11.4pt#100 of 258 · a typical amount
LSU10.9pt#111 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

27–22 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Jimbo Fisher.

Rivalry record
27–22
55.1% · 11 rivals
One-score games
59–35
62.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–4
0.0%
Buyout owed
$53,293,333 (est.)
bigger than 91% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Stanford4–640%
USC6–367%
Michigan3–443%
Ole Miss2–167%
Alabama1–233%
Arkansas3–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Jimbo Fisher0–3
3 meetings, 2011–2022
’11 L’14 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–4 0.0%
Blue Blood
9–10 47.4%
Power Program
38–35 52.1%
National Program
59–10 85.5%
Regional Program
63–14 81.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.52
#21 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.22
#56 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
LSUinheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Brian Kelly inherited a Blue Blood LSU and won with it.

4th-best LSU tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+5.6 pts
#86 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-13.2 pts
#159 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ed Orgeron (2016–2021).

Season2022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record10–410–39–42–3
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#12#6#7#10
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.148.959.054.4
Coordinators
OCMike DenbrockMike DenbrockJoe Sloan / Cortez HanktonJoe Sloan / Cortez Hankton
DCMatt HouseMatt HouseBlake BakerBlake Baker
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense92998022
Defense8664775
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.848.556.148.7
Red-zone pass%35.631.754.541.2
4th-down go%opp. territory39.038.540.922.0
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
58
3.5★ avg rating
Portal departures
90
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-32
#79 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Braelin Moore On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 229 lbs
across 49 of 58 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+6.5 lbs
#54 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#16 of 255 · more than most
Top states: LA (16), GA (4), AL (4), FL (4), TX (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
65.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
64.6
position-weighted
Net
+0.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jayden Daniels (QB) from Arizona State
Biggest loss: Max Johnson (QB) to Texas A&M
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
206 lbs
6′2″ avg · #571 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
208 lbs
5′10″ avg · #360 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
198 lbs
6′0″ avg · #191 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
248 lbs
6′6″ avg · #241 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
305 lbs
6′5″ avg · #537 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
301 lbs
6′3″ avg · #84 of 753 · more than most
Edge
259 lbs
6′5″ avg · #66 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′1″ avg · #507 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #636 of 771 · less than most
Safety
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #112 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys P via the portal
75%
#5 of 29 stints
Buys ATH via the portal
33%
#8 of 146 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
83%
#180 of 223 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
87%
#191 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Purdue 63–7 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl2023: Beat Wisconsin 35–31 ReliaQuest Bowl2024: Beat Baylor 44–31 Kinder's Texas Bowl2025: Lost to Houston 35–38 Kinder's Texas Bowl

36 NFL Draft picks: Derek Stingley Jr. (2022), Ed Ingram (2022), Cordale Flott (2022), Tyrion Davis-Price (2022), Cade York (2022), Neil Farrell Jr. (2022), Damone Clark (2022), Austin Deculus (2022) + 28 more

4 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jayden Daniels (2023), Malik Nabers (2023), Will Campbell (2024), Mansoor Delane (2025)

34–14
2010–2021
Notre Damebuilderborderline
Power Program II → Power Program I
Brian Kelly raised Notre Dame from Power Program II to Power Program I.

12th-best Notre Dame tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+8.7 pts
#65 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+11.3 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Charlie Weis (2005–2009).

Season201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record8–58–512–19–48–510–34–810–312–111–210–211–1
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#11#13#15#10#10#16#17#9
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.944.647.038.544.046.841.749.9
Coordinators
OCMike DenbrockMike SanfordMike SanfordChip LongChip LongChip LongTommy ReesTommy Rees
DCBrian VanGorderBrian VanGorderBrian VanGorderMike ElkoClark LeaClark LeaClark LeaMarcus Freeman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7187538465797974
Defense1142647486977595
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.042.945.840.840.946.640.148.9
Red-zone pass%42.540.946.236.750.047.539.235.0
4th-down go%opp. territory28.615.240.025.643.441.929.029.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
4
3.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
19
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-15
#173 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 213 lbs
across 2 of 4 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.3 lbs
#24 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: IL (1), NY (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
18.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
46.2
position-weighted
Net
-27.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Houston Griffith (CB) from Notre Dame
Biggest loss: Houston Griffith (CB) to Notre Dame
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Denbrock → Mike Sanford · 2015
71st pct87th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.0% → 42.9% (-3.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 54% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mike Sanford → Chip Long · 2017the system held
70th pct75th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 44.4% → 40.8% (-3.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Mike Elko → Clark Lea · 2018
74th pct86th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′1″ avg · #445 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
201 lbs
6′0″ avg · #601 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
203 lbs
6′0″ avg · #47 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
258 lbs
6′4″ avg · #38 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′6″ avg · #308 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
278 lbs
6′3″ avg · #510 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
229 lbs
6′2″ avg · #352 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #435 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows LS from high school
100%
#12 of 12 stints
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat LSU 31–28 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2015: Lost to Ohio State 28–44 Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl2017: Beat LSU 21–17 Citrus Bowl Presented By Overton's2018: Lost to Clemson 3–30 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic - Cfp Semifinal2019: Beat Iowa State 33–9 Camping World Bowl2020: Lost to Alabama 14–31 Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One - CFP Semifinal2021: Lost to Oklahoma State 35–37 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

60 NFL Draft picks: Jimmy Clausen (2010), Golden Tate (2010), Sam Young (2010), Eric Olsen (2010), Kyle Rudolph (2011), Michael Floyd (2012), Harrison Smith (2012), Robert Blanton (2012) + 52 more

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Kyle Hamilton (2020), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2020), Aaron Banks (2020), Liam Eichenberg (2020), Kyle Hamilton (2021)

113–40
2006–2009
Cincinnatibuilder
Regional Program I → National Program II
Brian Kelly raised Cincinnati from Regional Program I to National Program II.

6th-best Cincinnati tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Butch Jones (2010–2012).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
100%
#225 of 236 stints

13 NFL Draft picks: John Bowie (2007), Brent Celek (2007), Haruki Nakamura (2008), Angelo Craig (2008), Connor Barwin (2009), Kevin Huber (2009), DeAngelo Smith (2009), Brandon Underwood (2009) + 5 more

34–6
2004–2006
Central Michigancaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program IV
Brian Kelly moved Central Michigan from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

8th-best Central Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Mike DeBord (2000–2003) · succeeded by Butch Jones (2007–2009).

5 NFL Draft picks: Eric Ghiaciuc (2005), Adam Kieft (2005), Joe Staley (2007), Dan Bazuin (2007), Drew Mormino (2007)

19–16

Defining games during this era

2018 Cotton Bowl semifinal · Clemson 30, Notre Dame 3