Billy Napier
Followed Dan Mullen. Billy Napier inherited a Power Program I Florida and won with it.
In his own words
I’m nowhere close to being done
JMU, I can’t help but think that was a godsend to some degree
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kirby Smart.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
2nd-best James Madison tenure of 4 by the numbers.
Followed Bob Chesney (2024–2025).
A portal-built roster.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
12th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Dan Mullen (2018–2021).
| Season | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 6–7 | 5–7 | 8–5 | 1–4 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | — | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #17 | #13 | #13 | #7 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 43.7 | 48.0 | 42.4 | 49.3 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Rob Sale | Rob Sale | Russ Callaway / Rob Sale | Russ Callaway | |
| DC | Patrick Toney / Sean Spencer | Austin Armstrong / Sean Spencer | Austin Armstrong / Ron Roberts | Robert Bala / Ron Roberts / Vinnie Sunseri | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 68 | 73 | 70 | 44 | |
| Defense | 31 | 32 | 86 | 39 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 38.7 | 44.3 | 39.6 | 45.8 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.3 | 37.8 | 31.6 | 40.7 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 46.2 | 31.2 | 30.6 | 25.8 | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
24 NFL Draft picks: Kaiir Elam (2022), Zachary Carter (2022), Dameon Pierce (2022), Anthony Richardson (2023), Gervon Dexter (2023), O'Cyrus Torrence (2023), Ventrell Miller (2023), Justin Shorter (2023) + 16 more
2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): O'Cyrus Torrence (2022), Jake Slaughter (2024)
1st-best Louisiana tenure of 9 by the numbers.
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Mark Hudspeth (2011–2017).
| Season | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 7–7 | 11–3 | 10–1 | 12–1 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #105 | #76 | #79 | #79 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 38.6 | 41.8 | 41.8 | 41.8 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Rob Sale | Rob Sale | Rob Sale | Michael Desormeaux / Tim Leger | |
| DC | Ron Roberts | Ron Roberts | Patrick Toney | Patrick Toney | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 83 | 95 | 77 | 57 | |
| Defense | 10 | 61 | 93 | 73 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 26.6 | 39.7 | 41.2 | 39.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 32.7 | 35.4 | 33.6 | 34.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 24.2 | 40.0 | 46.9 | 66.7 | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
8 NFL Draft picks: Tracy Walker (2018), Simeon Thomas (2018), Robert Hunt (2020), Kevin Dotson (2020), Raymond Calais (2020), Elijah Mitchell (2021), Max Mitchell (2022), Percy Butler (2022)
Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2021)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Chris Smith (2020)