The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 1:10Coleman throws interception to Powe as JMU fans rage at the turnoverHow many meatball subs do we need until we finally start JC over Coleman.r/CFB game thread
Q3 7:42JMU fumbles, Troy scores, tying game as fans lament offensive incompetenceEveryone saw that fumble coming rightr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:11Coleman interception fuels JMU fans' frustration with offensive strugglesI think I'm officially over Coleman. Put Evans in full time or even Maiden, Coleman just doesn't have itr/CFB game thread
Q4 9:14James Madison fans criticize Napier for running three times before punting from the Troy 40Our punter is doing his bestr/CFB game thread
Q4 7:57Troy fans celebrate as the run game returns, while JMU fans despair over their team's collapseNavy and Army are gonna run for 700 yards on usr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:47Fans criticize Troy for missing a 49-yard field goal attempt by WolfeEver since JMU announced it was headed to the American it has been downhillr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:20Fans rip Billy Napier for running plays instead of kicking a field goalThat series right there should get Napier fired. It doesn’t matter if JMU ends up 8-1, he is incompetent.r/CFB game thread
Troy’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (James Madison -17.5), at 8% for Troy (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a James Madison or Troy flair (317 and 24); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Troy’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Troy scored on 3 of its 15 drives; James Madison on 3 of its 16.
Troy’s drives are teal, James Madison’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From James Madison’s side
James Madison’s best moment: Evans 3-yd run (OT). It lifted James Madison’s win chance by 17 points.
How James Madison fans took it: “Well it’s been a good run. The poop curse is real. How long will we be in purgatory for?” r/CFB game thread
When fans got loud
Loud
The jump was loud; the crowd was steady.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
What it cost
James Madison’s chance to make the playoff fell from 10% to 4%.
Make the playoff
Troy · won0% → 0%
James Madison · lost10% → ▼4%
Win the conference
Troy · won1% → ▲2%
James Madison · lost46% → ▼32%
Before the game (October 28, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Troy plays vs Louisiana Tech on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to win the conference. James Madison plays at Southern Miss on Thu Nov 5 with a 4% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Troy 24, James Madison 21
Troy covered +17.5 by 20.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.
Team totals
Troy
James Madison
Total yards
349
408
Passing
15 of 31, 179 yds
22 of 35, 247 yds
Rushing
45 for 170 yds
42 for 161 yds
First downs
17
17
Third down
4 of 15
7 of 18
Fourth down
0 of 3
1 of 3
Turnovers
1
5
Penalties
7 for 44 yds
10 for 71 yds
Time of possession
32:35
27:25
Troy leaders
Passing Tucker Kilcrease 15 of 31, 179 yds
Rushing Jaheim Merriweather 13 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Tucker Kilcrease 17 for 40 yds
Receiving Noreel White 3 for 64 yds; Howard Kinchen 2 for 31 yds
James Madison leaders
Passing Camden Coleman 14 of 25, 175 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Seth Cromwell 23 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Nick Herman 7 for 15 yds
Receiving Michael Scott 4 for 68 yds; Braeden Wisloski 4 for 62 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
55° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 56°, with about 7 in 10 games between 44° and 67°.
Troy 24, James Madison 21 · James Madison 0% to win
no rain · 47°
Wolfe 27-yd field goal, Troy goes ahead 24-21
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Bridgewater airport, 6.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Troy · 3-4
Rated 113th in our preseason ratings, 131st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
James Madison is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Troy’s EPA/play against James Madison, 75 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Troy’s EPA/play against James Madison’s defense
Troy offense, 12th percentile · James Madison defense, 87th
Troy’s passing EPA against James Madison’s defense
Troy offense, 8th percentile · James Madison defense, 76th
James Madison’s explosive plays against Troy’s defense
James Madison offense, 53rd percentile · Troy defense, 35th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
TroyJames Madison
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
James Madison leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2023 · James Madison has won the last 2
2025James Madison 31-14
2023James Madison 16-14
Each line is James Madison’s chance to win through that meeting. James Madison is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Troy fans are in a better mood than James Madison fans (85th percentile vs 13th among FBS fanbases), even with James Madison favored.
James Madison favored by 17.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
James Madison by 17.5, on the usual path until Q3 1:15
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 265 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
James Madison is worth +6.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 83rd percentile.
85% at home, 64% on the road against FBS opponents (22-4 home, 21-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 608 miles to get here.
Troy · Q3 14:2617 unanswered
Troy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.