This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, on track for 10-2 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianGeorgiaFloridaFloridaGeorgia TechGeorgia TechDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyGeorgia when he took over: 58.8 (Power Program I), its final 2015 readingtook overGeorgia, 2016: 8-5, Power Program IGeorgia, 2016: 8-5, Power Program I20168-5Georgia, 2017: 13-2, Power Program I201713-2Georgia, 2018: 11-3, Power Program I201811-3Georgia, 2019: 12-2, Power Program I201912-2Georgia, 2020: 8-2, Power Program I20208-2Georgia, 2021: 14-1, Blue Blood, national champion202114-1◆Georgia, 2022: 15-0, Dynasty, national champion202215-0★◆Georgia, 2023: 13-1, Dynasty202313-1★Georgia, 2024: 11-3, Blue Blood202411-3Georgia, 2025: 12-2, Blue Blood202512-2Georgia, 2026: 7-1, Blue BloodGeorgia, 2026: 7-1, Blue Blood20267-1+20.5bracket: consecutive-win streak · ◆ national title · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes29-game win streak (2021-23)

Bowls and playoffs: 9-4 · won 2 of 3 national title games

’16W’17W’17L’18L’19W’20W’21W’21W★’22W’22W★’23W’24L’25L

Show all 13 games
2016Liberty BowlW 31-232017 semiRose BowlW 54-482017CFP title gameL 23-262018Sugar BowlL 21-282019Sugar BowlW 26-142020Peach BowlW 24-212021 semiOrange BowlW 34-112021 ★CFP title gameW 33-182022 semiPeach BowlW 42-412022 ★CFP title gameW 65-72023Orange BowlW 63-32024 QFSugar BowlL 10-232025 QFSugar BowlL 34-39

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 27-8 vs. Florida Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1
  • On track for10-2 regular season
  • Nextat Ole Miss Sat Nov 7
  • Stature3rd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #3 → #2 up one
  • Playoff odds 81% → 89% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Ole Miss

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ABC · No. 12 Ole Miss is 6-2 · Smart vs. Pete Golding (not counting 2 games in seasons either team changed coaches) · Georgia’s chance to win: 53% (the site’s model)

His week

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 12th of 138 per play. Defense: 60th.

Offense, per play12thPassing offense6thDefense, per play60thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4022ndWorstBest
Offense, per play12th of 138Passing offense6th of 138Defense, per play60th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4022nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Georgia. The other two rows are where Georgia stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Ole Miss (6-2)ABC53%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Missouri (6-2)ABC72%
  3. Sat Nov 21at South Carolina (5-3)67%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Georgia Tech (2-6)98%

Percent: Georgia’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Georgia has held at 3rd of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 27-8 vs. Florida35 headlines · 19th of 138Kirby Smart says players were 'definitely hungrier' before new college football era USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25No game29 headlines · 14th of 138Georgia Alum Sounds NIL Alarm for Kirby Smart After Auburn Nightmare, Sends Two-Loss Playoff Verdict Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-27 vs. Auburn29 headlines · 11th of 138Kirby Smart And The Georgia Bulldogs Need More Peanut - Will He Slash The Auburn Tigers? Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11W 20-17 at Alabama22 headlines · 18th of 138Georgia Football's Kirby Smart Says Exactly What’s Going to Happen vs. Alabama Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 38-14 vs. Vanderbilt30 headlines · 16th of 138Kirby Smart provides update after another Georgia WR goes down Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 41-13 vs. Oklahoma35 headlines · 11th of 138Everything Georgia Football coach Kirby Smart Said After UGA's 41-13 Win Over Oklahoma Dawg Post

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Georgia’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Defense carries it: 95th percentile defense, top-quarter offense at 85th.

Georgia, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —85th
efficiency — 85th percentile success rate, 2016–25
A83rd
Standard-downs success
A82nd
Passing-downs success
B+75th
Trench push (line yards)
B+72nd
Red-zone scoring rate
B68th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+71st
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

A+
of which —95th
95th percentile SP+ defense, 2016–25
B65th
Front-7 havoc
B+77th
Secondary havoc
B61st
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-37th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled67th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 26.1 points a game · AP-ranked
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $13.3 million in 2025, the 99th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 50 · coaching at his alma mater
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.