Florida at Georgia

Away
Florida
5-2 Won last game
Home
Georgia
6-1 Lost last game
Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (neutral site)Add to calendar: Google · other

Georgia (6‑1) hosts Florida (5‑2). The market has Georgia favored by 12.5. The model gives Georgia a 71% shot. Georgia’s passing offense is at the 96th percentile; Florida’s pass defense is at the 18th.

This is Georgia-Florida — see the full head-to-head history →

How they got here

Last three games

Florida · 5-2

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 21st now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Texas as a 13.5-point underdog.

W 27-24 @ TexasTop 25 #6 of 668

won by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

Florida won 27-24 at Texas. Chance to win started at 12%, low 2%, high 95%.

L 19-38 vs South Carolina #31 of 668

lost by 19 as a 10.5-point favorite

Florida lost 19-38 vs South Carolina. Chance to win started at 83%, low under 1%, high 93%.

L 17-45 @ MissouriTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite

Florida lost 17-45 at Missouri. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 70%.

W 52-28 vs Ole MissTop 25 #19 of 668

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

Florida won 52-28 vs Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 74%, low 73%, high better than 99%.

W 44-39 @ Auburn #60 of 668

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

Florida won 44-39 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 51%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

Florida won 52-3 vs Campbell. Never in doubt.

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Florida won 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 97%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Georgia · 6-1

Rated 2nd in our preseason ratings, 4th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 24-27 vs Auburn #44 of 668

lost by 3 as a 19.5-point favorite

Georgia lost 24-27 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 93%, low under 1%, high 99%.

W 20-17 @ AlabamaTop 25 #6 of 668

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

Georgia won 20-17 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 37%, low 28%, high 95%.

W 38-14 vs Vanderbilt #43 of 668

won by 24 as a 25.5-point favorite

Georgia won 38-14 vs Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 96%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

W 41-13 vs OklahomaTop 25 #21 of 668

won by 28 as an 11.5-point favorite

Georgia won 41-13 vs Oklahoma. Chance to win started at 79%, low 77%, high better than 99%.

W 45-17 @ Arkansas #134 of 668

won by 28 as a 24.5-point favorite

Georgia won 45-17 at Arkansas. Chance to win started at 91%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 70-20 vs Western Kentucky #52 of 668

won by 50 as a 40.5-point favorite

Georgia won 70-20 vs Western Kentucky. Never in doubt.

W 63-3 vs Tennessee State #191 of 668

won by 60 as a 49.5-point favorite

Georgia won 63-3 vs Tennessee State. Never in doubt.

Biggest mismatch: Georgia’s passing EPA against Florida, 78 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Georgia’s passing EPA against Florida’s defense

    78 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia offense, 96th percentile · Florida defense, 18th

  2. Georgia’s success rate against Florida’s defense

    62 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Georgia offense, 97th percentile · Florida defense, 35th

What’s at stake

Make the playoff

Florida · 34%
Georgia · 83%

Georgia projected #1 seed

Win the conference

Florida · 4%
Georgia · 41%

Win the title

Florida · 2%
Georgia · 17%

CFP odds as of October 23, 2026

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

Georgia leads the series 58-44-2

104 meetings since 1904 · Georgia has won the last 5

Georgia wonFlorida won1904: Georgia by 521915: Georgia by 371916: Georgia by 211919: Georgia by 161920: Georgia by 561926: Georgia by 231927: Georgia by 281928: Florida by 201929: Florida by 121930: tie1931: Georgia by 271932: Georgia by 211933: Georgia by 141934: Georgia by 141935: Georgia by 71936: Georgia by 181937: Florida by 61938: Georgia by 131939: Georgia by 41940: Florida by 51941: Georgia by 161942: Georgia by 751944: Georgia by 261945: Georgia by 341946: Georgia by 191947: Georgia by 281948: Georgia by 81949: Florida by 211950: Georgia by 61951: Georgia by 11952: Florida by 301953: Florida by 141954: Georgia by 11955: Florida by 61956: Florida by 281957: Florida by 221958: Florida by 11959: Georgia by 111960: Florida by 81961: Florida by 71962: Florida by 81963: Florida by 71964: Georgia by 71965: Florida by 41966: Georgia by 171967: Florida by 11968: Georgia by 511969: tie1970: Florida by 71971: Georgia by 421972: Georgia by 31973: Florida by 11974: Georgia by 11975: Georgia by 31976: Georgia by 141977: Florida by 51978: Georgia by 21979: Georgia by 231980: Georgia by 51981: Georgia by 51982: Georgia by 441983: Georgia by 11984: Florida by 271985: Georgia by 211986: Florida by 121987: Georgia by 131988: Georgia by 231989: Georgia by 71990: Florida by 311991: Florida by 321992: Florida by 21993: Florida by 71994: Florida by 381995: Florida by 351996: Florida by 401997: Georgia by 201998: Florida by 311999: Florida by 162000: Florida by 112001: Florida by 142002: Florida by 72003: Florida by 32004: Georgia by 72005: Florida by 42006: Florida by 72007: Georgia by 122008: Florida by 392009: Florida by 242010: Florida by 32011: Georgia by 42012: Georgia by 82013: Georgia by 32014: Florida by 182015: Florida by 242016: Florida by 142017: Georgia by 352018: Georgia by 192019: Georgia by 72020: Florida by 162021: Georgia by 272022: Georgia by 222023: Georgia by 232024: Georgia by 142025: Georgia by 419042025
  • 2025 · neutral siteGeorgia 24-20Georgia won 24-20 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 60%, low 26%, high 88%.
  • 2024 · neutral siteGeorgia 34-20Georgia won 34-20 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 85%, low 33%, high 99%.
  • 2023 · neutral siteGeorgia 43-20Georgia won 43-20 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 77%, low 66%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022 · neutral siteGeorgia 42-20Georgia won 42-20 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 94%, low 91%, high better than 99%.
  • 2021 · neutral siteGeorgia 34-7Georgia won 34-7 vs Florida. Chance to win started at 83%, low 73%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Georgia’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

Georgia-Floridachampionship rivalryGeorgia leads the series 58-44-2 (through 2025)

Florida

The chip · vs the national media

The same analysts who buried the Sumrall hire as 'another Group-of-Five retread from Louisiana, Napier 2.0' will be the first to call it a steal if it works. Gainesville is keeping the receipts.

What this game touches

The long fall from the Spurrier–Meyer summit. Three titles and three Heismans by 2008, then fifteen years of coaching misfires (Muschamp, McElwain, the Mullen collapse, Napier) — bottoming out at 4-8 in 2025 with Napier fired mid-October.

Georgia

The chip · vs the national media

The growing take that the regular-season machine can't close in January anymore — that the Smart dynasty peaked at two. The fanbase has heard it three straight winters, and it stings precisely because it isn't yet refutable.

What this game touches

The can't-finish-it stretch since the back-to-back. After closing a 41-year title loop in 2021-22, three straight seasons of SEC dominance have ended short of the mountaintop — the 2024 quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, then a 39-34 Sugar Bowl loss to Ole Miss in 2025.

Best players

Florida

Georgia

What to watch

Player to watch: Gunner Stockton (QB) — Georgia’s leading passer (1,570 passing yards) takes on Florida’s pass defense (18th percentile allowed).

The betting line, and the fans

Florida fans are in a better mood than Georgia fans (24th vs 7th among FBS fanbases), even with Georgia favored.

  • Model · 71%
  • Line · 84%
  • Georgia fans · 7th
  • Florida fans · 24th

Georgia favored by 12.5 · Total 53.5

Georgia by 12.5: where a favorite like this usually runs

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 games

Georgia’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

Season profile

FloridaGeorgia
EPA/play, offense
Florida · 82Georgia · 97
EPA/play, defense
Florida · 49Georgia · 71
Success rate, offense
Florida · 69Georgia · 97
Success rate, defense
Florida · 35Georgia · 83
Explosive-play rate, offense
Florida · 50Georgia · 57
Explosive-play rate, defense
Florida · 53Georgia · 41
Rush EPA, offense
Florida · 55Georgia · 92
Rush EPA, defense
Florida · 76Georgia · 89
Pass EPA, offense
Florida · 85Georgia · 96
Pass EPA, defense
Florida · 18Georgia · 58

Week by week

Georgia

Wk 3: W 45-17 at Arkansas▲28ArkansasWk 4: W 41-13 vs Oklahoma▲28OklahomaWk 5: W 38-14 vs Vanderbilt▲24Vanderbi…Wk 6: W 20-17 at Alabama▲3AlabamaWk 7: L 24-27 vs Auburn▼3Auburn
  • Wk 3Wat Arkansas45-17
  • Wk 4Wvs Oklahoma41-13
  • Wk 5Wvs Vanderbilt38-14
  • Wk 6Wat Alabama20-17
  • Wk 7Lvs Auburn24-27

Florida

Wk 3: W 44-39 at Auburn▲5AuburnWk 4: W 52-28 vs Ole Miss▲24Ole MissWk 5: L 17-45 at Missouri▼28MissouriWk 6: L 19-38 vs South Carolina▼19S. Carol…Wk 7: W 27-24 at Texas▲3Texas
  • Wk 3Wat Auburn44-39
  • Wk 4Wvs Ole Miss52-28
  • Wk 5Lat Missouri17-45
  • Wk 6Lvs South Carolina19-38
  • Wk 7Wat Texas27-24

Power rating by week

Georgia is rated 5.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

19125Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8GeorgiaFlorida

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full SEC standings

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.