Auburn 27-24 Georgia (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Auburn · Georgia

Auburn4-227

No. 1 Georgia6-124Final

Sat, Oct 17 · Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga. · Crowd 93,033

Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia 27-24 as a 19.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 1%.

Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 120 games since 2018.

We had Georgia favored. Auburn won.

Next: Auburn vs LSU, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Auburn underdog by 7.5

Next: Georgia vs Florida, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Georgia favored by 12.5

Top comment in the game thread

I have it on good authority that your QB is supposed to turn it over on a game tying drive.

Q4 3:36 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24 (Q4, 0:00). Auburn went from 58% to 100% to win. Fans right then: “Arch Stockton” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 4% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 19.5-point underdog) put it at 6%.

Non-QB touchdown pass

Auburn · Q1 3:07Blocked field goalQ2 4:3024 unanswered

Auburn · Q2 1:20

FinalAuburn 27-24 GeorgiaAuburn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:58FumbleStockton 2-yd run, fumblesAuburn 11% → 35% (+24)
2Q4 0:00McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24Auburn 58% → 100% (+42)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 0:58FumbleStockton 2-yd run, fumblesGeorgia 89% → 65% (−24)
2Q4 0:00McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24Georgia 42% → 0% (−42)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 6:32Brown throws to Nimrod for a touchdown as fans marvel at the catchNimrod and Neptuner/CFB game thread
Q2 1:04Georgia fans panic as Stockton throws interception and appears concussedCan we go back to the first 9 minutes of the game?r/CFB game threadJesus we can’t fing tackler/CFB game thread
Q3 11:28Auburn fans celebrate Brown's touchdown as Georgia fans call the defense embarrassingHow did we score 14 so quick and then forget how to play?r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:13Fans declare Stockton concussed after interception and bailout penaltyShows how much faith we have in Pug if we’re keeping Stockton in after this.r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:36Gunner Stockton leads a drive to tie the game with 2:58 leftDid you guys know that Baker Mayfield is Gunner Stockton’s favorite quarterback?r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 1:09Fans celebrate Stockton fumble after disputing catchable pass rulingArch Stocktonr/CFB game threadGunner "Arch Manning" Stocktonr/CFB game thread

Auburn’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Georgia -19.5), at 7% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Georgia or Auburn flair (2,821 and 1,328); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Auburn scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Georgia on 4 of its 12.

Auburn’s drives are teal, Georgia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Georgia’s side

Georgia’s best moment: Stockton 4-yd TD pass to Humphreys, ties it 24-24 (Q4 2:58). It lifted Georgia’s win chance by 18 points.

How Georgia fans took it: “I woke up today against the 24 team playoff but this game has changed my mind.” r/CFB game thread

“The state of Alabama is healing”

An Auburn fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was firestorm.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Auburn fans

golesh“So, can anybody speak to the adjustments Golesh made during our bye week? This looks like a completely different team.”

lie“Not gonna lie, playing the Solo from “Free Bird” is a great choice”

expected“I think I speak for everyone when I say we're exactly where we all expected to be at halftime”

Georgia fans

concussed“Gunner has gotta be concussed. He just looks out of it. Forgetting to hold fg, holding the ball for a year on that sack”

bobo“Oh yeeeeaaaaahhhh Bobo, screen on 3rd and 13 when we really gotta have it..”

tackle“Everybody talking about the QB play. Our defense is getting dominated. No one seems to use their arms when they tackle, diving at peoples f’ing feet.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, don, ball, run.

The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.

What it cost

Georgia’s chance to make the playoff fell from 95% to 88%.

Make the playoff

Auburn · won1% → ▲3%

Georgia · lost95% → ▼88%

Win the conference

Auburn · won0% → 0%

Georgia · lost53% → ▼41%

Win the title

Auburn · won0% → 0%

Georgia · lost22% → ▼20%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Auburn plays vs LSU on Sat Oct 24 with a 3% chance to make the playoff. Georgia plays vs Florida on Sat Oct 31 with an 88% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Auburn 27, Georgia 24

Auburn covered +19.5 by 22.5. The total, 51, went over 50.5.

Team totals	Auburn	Georgia
Total yards	366	440
Passing	16 of 28, 174 yds	25 of 37, 327 yds
Rushing	46 for 192 yds	28 for 113 yds
First downs	23	24
Third down	6 of 16	6 of 12
Fourth down	2 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	11 for 85 yds	4 for 60 yds
Time of possession	29:33	30:27

Auburn leaders

Passing Byrum Brown 15 of 26, 150 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Byrum Brown 26 for 115 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Cobb 13 for 61 yds
Receiving Chas Nimrod 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Keshaun Singleton 3 for 45 yds, 1 TD

Georgia leaders

Passing Gunner Stockton 22 of 34, 272 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Dwight Phillips Jr. 10 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Gunner Stockton 9 for 26 yds
Receiving Craig Dandridge 4 for 88 yds; Talyn Taylor 4 for 64 yds

No rain, gusts to 28 mph

69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 28

A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Sanford Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:00 left7:00 p.m.

Auburn 27, Georgia 24 · Georgia 0% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the northeast · 63°

McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24

Measured at Athens Municipal airport, 2.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Deep South's Oldest Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

Auburn · 3-2

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 59th now, up 12 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-24 @ TennesseeTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 10 as a 6-point underdog

W 21-15 vs Vanderbilt #46 of 668

won by 6 as a 10-point favorite

L 39-44 vs FloridaTop 25 #17 of 668

lost by 5 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 43-8 vs Southern Miss #59 of 668

won by 35 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 17-16 vs Baylor #36 of 668

won by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games

Georgia · 6-0

Rated 2nd in our preseason ratings, 1st now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 3-point win over Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 20-17 @ AlabamaTop 25 #6 of 668

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 38-14 vs Vanderbilt #43 of 668

won by 24 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 41-13 vs OklahomaTop 25 #21 of 668

won by 28 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 45-17 @ Arkansas #134 of 668

won by 28 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 70-20 vs Western Kentucky #52 of 668

won by 50 as a 40.5-point favorite

W 63-3 vs Tennessee State #191 of 668

won by 60 as a 49.5-point favorite

Week by week

Georgia

Wk 2Wvs Western Kentucky70-20
Wk 3Wat Arkansas45-17
Wk 4Wvs Oklahoma41-13
Wk 5Wvs Vanderbilt38-14
Wk 6Wat Alabama20-17

Auburn

Wk 1Wvs Baylor17-16
Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8
Wk 3Lvs Florida39-44
Wk 4Wvs Vanderbilt21-15
Wk 5Lat Tennessee14-24

Power rating by week

Georgia is rated 13.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Georgia’s success rate against Auburn, 50 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Georgia’s success rate against Auburn’s defense
Georgia offense, 97th percentile · Auburn defense, 47th
Georgia’s rushing EPA against Auburn’s defense
Georgia offense, 92nd percentile · Auburn defense, 45th
Auburn’s explosive plays against Georgia’s defense
Auburn offense, 64th percentile · Georgia defense, 40th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AuburnGeorgia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Georgia leads the series 64-52-6

122 meetings since 1902 · Georgia has won the last 9

2025Georgia 20-10
2024Georgia 31-13
2023Georgia 27-20
2022Georgia 42-10
2021Georgia 34-10

Each line is Georgia’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (21st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Georgia favored by 19.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Georgia by 19.5, on the usual path until Q2 1:04

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Georgia.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Georgia is worth +3.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 40th percentile.

93% at home, 88% on the road against FBS opponents (43-3 home, 30-4 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 88 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 154 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Georgia 20, Auburn 10Oct 11, 2025

Our History pages cover 12 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Georgia1st4-0
Auburn12th1-2

Full SEC standings

Auburn upsets No. 1 Georgia 27-24