AUB Auburn 4-2 27 UGA No. 1 Georgia6-1 24 Final Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia 27-24 as a 19.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 1%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 1% or less in about 1 of every 120 games since 2018.
We had Georgia favored. Auburn won.
Top comment in the game thread
I have it on good authority that your QB is supposed to turn it over on a game tying drive.
Q4 3:36 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung The turning point: McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24 (Q4, 0:00). Auburn went from 58% to 100% to win. Fans right then: “Arch Stockton” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 4% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 19.5-point underdog) put it at 6%.
Non-QB touchdown pass Auburn · Q1 3:07Blocked field goal Q2 4:30 24 unanswered Auburn · Q2 1:20Final Auburn 27-24 Georgia Auburn won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Georgia 24-27 Auburn Georgia lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 10% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 23% at half Auburn Georgia Lowest 1% Won 27-24 Scores Non-QB touchdown pass Blocked field goal 24 unanswered Auburn Georgia Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 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comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 32 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 2 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 33 comments a minute The last 1:09, play by play 50% 1 2 1:09 0:58 0:51 0:27 0:24 0:06 0:00 Final 50% 10% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 23% at half Auburn Georgia Lowest 1% Won 27-24 Scores Non-QB touchdown pass Blocked field goal 24 unanswered Auburn Georgia Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 13 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 22 comments a minute Georgia fans: 14 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 32 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 2 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 33 comments a minute The last 1:09, play by play 50% 1 2 1:09 0:51 0:24 Final 50% 10% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 77% at half Georgia Auburn High 99% Lost 24-27 Scores Non-QB touchdown pass Blocked field goal 24 unanswered Georgia Auburn Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 22 comments a minute Georgia fans: 14 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 32 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 2 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 33 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 13 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 20 comments a minute The last 1:09, play by play 50% 1 2 1:09 0:58 0:51 0:27 0:24 0:06 0:00 Final 50% 10% 25% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 77% at half Georgia Auburn High 99% Lost 24-27 Scores Non-QB touchdown pass Blocked field goal 24 unanswered Georgia Auburn Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 22 comments a minute Georgia fans: 14 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 9 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 32 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 23 comments a minute Georgia fans: 20 comments a minute Georgia fans: 11 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 2 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 25 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 19 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 8 comments a minute Georgia fans: 10 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 12 comments a minute Georgia fans: 6 comments a minute Georgia fans: 16 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 18 comments a minute Georgia fans: 13 comments a minute Georgia fans: 15 comments a 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comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 2 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 12 comments a minute Auburn fans: 13 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 5 comments a minute Auburn fans: 7 comments a minute Auburn fans: 16 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 4 comments a minute Auburn fans: 6 comments a minute Auburn fans: 10 comments a minute Auburn fans: 3 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 8 comments a minute Auburn fans: 9 comments a minute Auburn fans: 20 comments a minute The last 1:09, play by play 50% 1 2 1:09 0:51 0:24 Final
See it from Georgia’s side The two plays that swung it
1 Q4 0:58 Fumble Stockton 2-yd run, fumblesAuburn 11% → 35% (+24) 2 Q4 0:00 McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24 Auburn 58% → 100% (+42) The two plays that swung it
1 Q4 0:58 Fumble Stockton 2-yd run, fumblesGeorgia 89% → 65% (−24) 2 Q4 0:00 McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24 Georgia 42% → 0% (−42) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q2 6:32 Brown throws to Nimrod for a touchdown as fans marvel at the catch Nimrod and Neptune r/CFB game thread Q2 1:04 Georgia fans panic as Stockton throws interception and appears concussed Can we go back to the first 9 minutes of the game? r/CFB game thread Jesus we can’t fing tackle r/CFB game thread Q3 11:28 Auburn fans celebrate Brown's touchdown as Georgia fans call the defense embarrassing How did we score 14 so quick and then forget how to play? r/CFB game thread Q3 8:13 Fans declare Stockton concussed after interception and bailout penalty Shows how much faith we have in Pug if we’re keeping Stockton in after this. r/CFB game thread Q4 3:36 Gunner Stockton leads a drive to tie the game with 2:58 left Did you guys know that Baker Mayfield is Gunner Stockton’s favorite quarterback? r/CFB game thread Quoted at the top of the page. Q4 1:09 Fans celebrate Stockton fumble after disputing catchable pass ruling Arch Stockton r/CFB game thread Gunner "Arch Manning" Stockton r/CFB game thread Auburn’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Georgia -19.5), at 7% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Georgia or Auburn flair (2,821 and 1,328); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 12:03 Phillips 15-yd TD run Georgia goes ahead 7-0 Q1, 12:03 · Auburn 0, Georgia 7 ▼2% Auburn’s chance to win, 5% to 3% ▼2% Auburn’s chance to win, 5% to 3% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 6:49 Stockton 24-yd TD pass to Luckie Georgia leads 14-0 Q1, 6:49 · Auburn 0, Georgia 14 ▼2% Auburn’s chance to win, 3% to 1% ▼2% Auburn’s chance to win, 3% to 1% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 3:07 Neptune 24-yd TD pass to Singleton cuts it to 14-7 Q1, 3:07 · Auburn 7, Georgia 14 7-14 score after the play 7-14 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 6:32 Brown 9-yd TD pass to Nimrod ties it 14-14 Q2, 6:32 · Auburn 14, Georgia 14 ▲6% Auburn’s chance to win, 7% to 13% ▲6% Auburn’s chance to win, 7% to 13% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 1:04 Stockton intercepted by Fegans at the Auburn 25 Q2, 1:04 · Auburn 17, Georgia 14 ▲5% Auburn’s chance to win, 14% to 19% ▲5% Auburn’s chance to win, 14% to 19% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:24 Brown sacked for a 4-yd loss Q2, 0:24 · Auburn 17, Georgia 14 ▼3% Auburn’s chance to win, 20% to 17% ▼3% Auburn’s chance to win, 20% to 17% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 0:22 Stockton sacked for a 9-yd loss Q2, 0:22 · Auburn 17, Georgia 14 ▲7% Auburn’s chance to win, 16% to 23% ▲7% Auburn’s chance to win, 16% to 23% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 11:28 Brown 5-yd TD run Auburn leads 24-14 Q3, 11:28 · Auburn 24, Georgia 14 ▲17% Auburn’s chance to win, 28% to 45% ▲17% Auburn’s chance to win, 28% to 45% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 8:13 G.Stockton pass intercepted by E.Melendez at AUB23 E.Melendez return 18 yards to the AUB41… Q3, 8:13 · Auburn 24, Georgia 14 ▲15% Auburn’s chance to win, 35% to 50% ▲15% Auburn’s chance to win, 35% to 50% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 2:58 Stockton 4-yd TD pass to Humphreys ties it 24-24 Q4, 2:58 · Auburn 24, Georgia 24 ▼18% Auburn’s chance to win, 52% to 34% ▼18% Auburn’s chance to win, 52% to 34% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 0:58 Stockton 2-yd run fumbles Q4, 0:58 · Auburn 24, Georgia 24 ▲24% Auburn’s chance to win, 11% to 35% ▲24% Auburn’s chance to win, 11% to 35% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Auburn scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Georgia on 4 of its 12.
Auburn’s drives are teal, Georgia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Georgia: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56 Punt Georgia: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0 Touchdown Auburn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Georgia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45 Punt Auburn: Punt, from 80 yards out to 45 Punt Q2 Georgia: Punt, from 88 yards out to 79 Punt Auburn: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0 Touchdown Georgia: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 36 Missed FG Auburn: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 31 Field goal Georgia: Interception, from 75 yards out to 52 Interception Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75 Punt Georgia: End of half, from 54 yards out to 63 End of half Q3 Auburn: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0 Touchdown Georgia: Interception, from 75 yards out to 24 Interception Auburn: Punt, from 74 yards out to 72 Punt Georgia: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 24 Field goal Q4 Auburn: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68 Punt Georgia: Punt, from 62 yards out to 59 Punt Auburn: Punt, from 82 yards out to 53 Punt Georgia: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0 Touchdown Auburn: Punt, from 83 yards out to 77 Punt Georgia: Fumble, from 61 yards out to 44 Fumble Auburn: Field goal, from 56 yards out to 16 Field goal “The state of Alabama is healing” An Auburn fan When fans got loud Roaring
The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was roaring; the crowd was firestorm.
First Second Third Fourth Auburn fans Georgia fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Auburn fans
golesh “So, can anybody speak to the adjustments Golesh made during our bye week? This looks like a completely different team.”
lie “Not gonna lie, playing the Solo from “Free Bird” is a great choice”
expected “I think I speak for everyone when I say we're exactly where we all expected to be at halftime”
Georgia fans
concussed “Gunner has gotta be concussed. He just looks out of it. Forgetting to hold fg, holding the ball for a year on that sack”
bobo “Oh yeeeeaaaaahhhh Bobo, screen on 3rd and 13 when we really gotta have it..”
tackle “Everybody talking about the QB play. Our defense is getting dominated. No one seems to use their arms when they tackle, diving at peoples f’ing feet.”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, don, ball, run.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
What it cost Georgia’s chance to make the playoff fell from 95% to 88%.
Make the playoff
Auburn · won 1% → ▲ 3%
Georgia · lost 95% → ▼ 88% 95% ▼ 88%
Win the conference
Auburn · won 0% → 0%
Georgia · lost 53% → ▼ 41% 53% ▼ 41% Win the title
Auburn · won 0% → 0%
Georgia · lost 22% → ▼ 20% 22% ▼ 20%
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Auburn plays vs LSU on Sat Oct 24 with a 3% chance to make the playoff. Georgia plays vs Florida on Sat Oct 31 with an 88% chance to make the playoff.
Box score Auburn 27, Georgia 24
Auburn covered +19.5 by 22.5. The total, 51, went over 50.5.
Auburn Georgia Total yards Auburn 366 Georgia 440 366 440 Passing yards Auburn 174 Georgia 327 174 327 Rushing yards Auburn 192 Georgia 113 192 113 First downs Auburn 23 Georgia 24 23 24 Turnovers Auburn 0 Georgia 3 0 3 Time of possession Auburn 29:33 Georgia 30:27 29:33 30:27 Team totals Auburn Georgia Total yards 366 440 Passing 16 of 28, 174 yds 25 of 37, 327 yds Rushing 46 for 192 yds 28 for 113 yds First downs 23 24 Third down 6 of 16 6 of 12 Fourth down 2 of 2 0 of 0 Turnovers 0 3 Penalties 11 for 85 yds 4 for 60 yds Time of possession 29:33 30:27
Auburn leaders Passing Byrum Brown 15 of 26, 150 yds, 1 TDRushing Byrum Brown 26 for 115 yds, 1 TD; Jeremiah Cobb 13 for 61 ydsReceiving Chas Nimrod 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Keshaun Singleton 3 for 45 yds, 1 TDGeorgia leaders Passing Gunner Stockton 22 of 34, 272 yds, 2 TD, 2 INTRushing Dwight Phillips Jr. 10 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Gunner Stockton 9 for 26 ydsReceiving Craig Dandridge 4 for 88 yds; Talyn Taylor 4 for 64 ydsNo rain, gusts to 28 mph 69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 10 mph from the north-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 28
A 28 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 92% of games since 2018.
Every game's peak, with this game marked typical game 16 mph This game: 28 mph 0 60 mph Every game's peak, with this game marked typical game 16 mph This game: 28 mph 0 60 mph Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
October game-day temperatures at Sanford Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Georgia favored Auburn favored 0% Win chance Georgia Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph 28 mph gust Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Georgia favored Auburn favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 28 mph gust Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Fourth quarter, 0:00 left7:00 p.m.
Auburn 27, Georgia 24 · Georgia 0% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the northeast · 63°
McPherson 34-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 27-24
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Jump to Biggest swing: 41 points of win chance · fourth Where this weather comes from Measured at Athens Municipal airport, 2.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Deep South's Oldest Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Georgia’s success rate against Auburn, 50 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Georgia’s success rate against Auburn’s defense
50 points weaker stronger 50th Georgia offense, 97th percentile · Auburn defense, 47th
Georgia’s rushing EPA against Auburn’s defense
47 points weaker stronger 50th Georgia offense, 92nd percentile · Auburn defense, 45th
Auburn’s explosive plays against Georgia’s defense
24 points weaker stronger 50th Auburn offense, 64th percentile · Georgia defense, 40th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Auburn Georgia
EPA/play, offense
Auburn · 34 Georgia · 97 EPA/play, defense
Auburn · 67 Georgia · 71 Success rate, offense
Auburn · 34 Georgia · 97 Success rate, defense
Auburn · 47 Georgia · 82 Explosive-play rate, offense
Auburn · 64 Georgia · 58 Explosive-play rate, defense
Auburn · 76 Georgia · 40 Rush EPA, offense
Auburn · 76 Georgia · 92 Rush EPA, defense
Auburn · 45 Georgia · 89 Pass EPA, offense
Auburn · 17 Georgia · 96 Pass EPA, defense
Auburn · 66 Georgia · 58 The series Georgia leads the series 64-52-6
122 meetings since 1902 · Georgia has won the last 9
Georgia won Auburn won 1902: Georgia by 7 1903: Georgia by 9 1904: Auburn by 11 1905: Auburn by 20 1906: Georgia by 4 1907: Georgia by 6 1908: Auburn by 23 1909: Auburn by 12 1910: Auburn by 26 1911: tie 1912: Georgia by 6 1913: Auburn by 14 1914: tie 1915: Auburn by 12 1916: Auburn by 3 1919: Auburn by 7 1920: Georgia by 7 1921: Georgia by 7 1922: Auburn by 4 1923: Georgia by 7 1924: Georgia by 6 1925: Georgia by 34 1926: Georgia by 10 1927: Georgia by 30 1928: Georgia by 13 1929: Georgia by 24 1930: Georgia by 32 1931: Georgia by 6 1932: Auburn by 7 1933: Auburn by 8 1934: Georgia by 18 1935: Auburn by 12 1936: Auburn by 7 1937: tie 1938: Auburn by 9 1939: Auburn by 7 1940: Georgia by 1 1941: Georgia by 7 1942: Auburn by 14 1944: Georgia by 36 1945: Georgia by 35 1946: Georgia by 41 1947: Georgia by 22 1948: Georgia by 28 1949: tie 1950: Georgia by 2 1951: Georgia by 32 1952: Georgia by 6 1953: Auburn by 21 1954: Auburn by 35 1955: Auburn by 3 1956: Auburn by 20 1957: Auburn by 6 1958: Auburn by 15 1959: Georgia by 1 1960: Auburn by 3 1961: Auburn by 3 1962: Georgia by 9 1963: Auburn by 14 1964: Auburn by 7 1965: Auburn by 2 1966: Georgia by 8 1967: Georgia by 17 1968: Georgia by 14 1969: Auburn by 13 1970: Georgia by 14 1971: Auburn by 15 1972: Auburn by 17 1973: Georgia by 14 1974: Auburn by 4 1975: Georgia by 15 1976: Georgia by 28 1977: Auburn by 19 1978: tie 1979: Auburn by 20 1980: Georgia by 10 1981: Georgia by 11 1982: Georgia by 5 1983: Auburn by 6 1984: Auburn by 9 1985: Auburn by 14 1986: Georgia by 4 1987: Auburn by 16 1988: Auburn by 10 1989: Auburn by 17 1990: Auburn by 23 1991: Georgia by 10 1992: Georgia by 4 1993: Auburn by 14 1994: tie 1995: Auburn by 6 1996: Georgia by 7 1997: Auburn by 11 1998: Georgia by 11 1999: Auburn by 17 2000: Auburn by 3 2001: Auburn by 7 2002: Georgia by 3 2003: Georgia by 19 2004: Auburn by 18 2005: Auburn by 1 2006: Georgia by 22 2007: Georgia by 25 2008: Georgia by 4 2009: Georgia by 7 2010: Auburn by 18 2011: Georgia by 38 2012: Georgia by 38 2013: Auburn by 5 2014: Georgia by 27 2015: Georgia by 7 2016: Georgia by 6 2017: Auburn by 23 2017: Georgia by 21 2018: Georgia by 17 2019: Georgia by 7 2020: Georgia by 21 2021: Georgia by 24 2022: Georgia by 32 2023: Georgia by 7 2024: Georgia by 18 2025: Georgia by 10 1902 2025 2025 Georgia 20-10 Georgia won 20-10 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 50%, low 17%, high 97%. 2024 Georgia 31-13 Georgia won 31-13 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 92%, low 88%, high better than 99%. 2023 Georgia 27-20 Georgia won 27-20 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 83%, low 37%, high 97%. 2022 Georgia 42-10 Georgia won 42-10 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 96%, low 89%, high better than 99%. 2021 Georgia 34-10 Georgia won 34-10 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 84%, low 72%, high better than 99%. Each line is Georgia’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Georgia fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (21st among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
50-50 Model 96% · Line 94% Georgia fans · 21st Auburn fans · 16th Auburn Georgia Georgia favored by 19.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go Georgia by 19.5, on the usual path until Q2 1:04 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market The spread moved 3 points toward Georgia.
opened −16.5 now −19.5 The total fell 4 points.
opened 54.5 now 50.5 Spread: −16.5 → −19.5 · Total: 54.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Georgia is worth +3.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 40th percentile.
93% at home, 88% on the road against FBS opponents (43-3 home, 30-4 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.2 at home vs. away over 88 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 154 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages Our History pages cover 12 of their meetings since 2015.