LSU at Auburn
LSU (#18, 5‑2) travels to Auburn (4‑2), with LSU favored by 7. The model gives LSU a 66% shot. Auburn’s passing offense is at the 18th percentile; LSU’s pass defense is at the 99th.
How they got here
Last three games
LSU · 5-2
Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 8th now, up 23 spots.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 63-14 vs McNeese #212 of 668
won by 49 as a 53.5-point favorite
Last three games
Auburn · 4-2
Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 44th now, up 27 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s passing EPA against LSU, 81 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Auburn’s passing EPA against LSU’s defense
Auburn offense, 18th percentile · LSU defense, 99th
Auburn’s EPA/play against LSU’s defense
Auburn offense, 34th percentile · LSU defense, 99th
LSU’s explosive plays against Auburn’s defense
LSU offense, 34th percentile · Auburn defense, 76th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
LSU projected #7 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
LSU leads the series 33-23-1
57 meetings since 1902 · LSU has won the last 2
- 2023LSU 48-18
- 2022LSU 21-17
- 2021Auburn 24-19
- 2020Auburn 48-11
- 2019LSU 23-20
Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Auburn is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
LSU
The chip · vs the national mediaThe take that LSU is a sleeping giant that keeps hiring wrong — all that talent, all that money, a revolving door of coaches. The fanbase made the boldest bet in the sport that Lane Kiffin is the answer to the joke.
What this game touches
The boom-bust — a title, then a teardown. LSU's championship seasons (the 15-0 2019 team especially) are followed by collapses and firings — Orgeron out two years after a title, Brian Kelly fired in October 2025 the day after a 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M. Greatness here is real but never sustained.
Auburn
The chip · vs big brotherAuburn fans know exactly what the ledger says across the state and refuse to wear the role it implies; the chip is that the same recruiting ground and the same league bid go to two programs, and one of them is told to be grateful for the scraps. War Eagle is said with an edge for a reason.
What this game touches
The Freeze firing and the reset under it. Hugh Freeze was let go in November 2025 at 15-19 — fired mid-season after a 4-5 start and an SEC record that never matched the recruiting — the third straight regime to leave Auburn searching, and proof the resources still aren't translating into Saturdays.
Best players
LSU
- TJ Dottery (LB) · 54 tackles
- Sam Leavitt (QB) · 1,784 passing yards — Heisman odds: 6th (+1500)
- Jackson Harris (WR) · 456 receiving yards
Auburn
- Elijah Melendez (LB) · 52 tackles
- Xavier Atkins (LB) · 37 tackles
- Eric Winters (S) · 35 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Auburn fans are in a better mood than LSU fans (49th vs 27th among FBS fanbases), even with LSU favored.
LSU favored by 7 · Total 51.5
LSU by 7: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
LSU’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
LSU at Auburn · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · ABC · Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- 67°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 18 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Jordan-Hare Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.
56% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (29-23 home, 14-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 368 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Auburn
- Wk 2Wvs Southern Miss43-8
- Wk 3Lvs Florida39-44
- Wk 4Wvs Vanderbilt21-15
- Wk 5Lat Tennessee14-24
- Wk 7Wat Georgia27-24
LSU
- Wk 3Lat Ole Miss24-32
- Wk 4Wvs Texas A&M35-6
- Wk 5Wvs McNeese63-14
- Wk 6Lat Kentucky34-35
- Wk 7Wvs Mississippi State31-0
Power rating by week
LSU is rated 7.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward LSU.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +6.5 → +7 · Total: 50.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- LSU 23, Auburn 20Oct 26, 2019
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2017.