Kentucky 35-34 LSU (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: LSU · Kentucky

No. 10 LSU4-234

Kentucky5-135Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. · Crowd 61,897

No. 25 Kentucky beat No. 10 LSU 35-34 in overtime as a 9.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 5%.

Winners have been down to 5% or less in about 1 of every 25 games since 2018.

We had LSU favored. Kentucky won.

Next: LSU beat Mississippi State 31-0, Sat Oct 17

Next: Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21-13, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

That's a weak RTP flag.

Q3 6:36 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Baxter 1-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 35-34 (OT). Kentucky went from 31% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kentucky a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Kentucky was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.

Punt return TD

Kentucky · Q2 13:06Non-QB touchdown pass

LSU · Q4 9:42

FinalKentucky 35-34 LSUKentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 4:11FumbleLeavitt sacked for a 15-yd loss, fumblesKentucky 16% → 40% (+24)
2Q4 3:11Zouagui 26-yd field goal no goodKentucky 35% → 13% (−22)
3Q4 0:12Zouagui 33-yd field goal, ties it 27-27Kentucky 16% → 37% (+21)
4OTBaxter 1-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 35-34Kentucky 31% → 100% (+69)

The four plays that swung it

1Q4 4:11FumbleLeavitt sacked for a 15-yd loss, fumblesLSU 84% → 60% (−24)
2Q4 3:11Zouagui 26-yd field goal no goodLSU 65% → 87% (+22)
3Q4 0:12Zouagui 33-yd field goal, ties it 27-27LSU 84% → 63% (−21)
4OTBaxter 1-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 35-34LSU 69% → 0% (−69)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 6:36Fans call soft roughing penalty on Leavitt pass incompleteQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 8:07A receiver made a catch with his elbow down first.Elbow is in! Thats a catchr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:31Minchey sacked by Blocton as Kentucky fans rage at poor decision makingMinchey with some brutal decision makingr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:19Fans react to Zouagui tying the game after a ref overturns a catch callSend that ref to the showers good lordr/CFB game thread

Kentucky’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (LSU -9.5), at 33% for Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kentucky or LSU flair (1,306 and 1,179); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kentucky’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Kentucky scored on 5 of its 11 drives; LSU on 6 of its 12.

Kentucky’s drives are teal, LSU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From LSU’s side

LSU’s best moment: Zouagui 26-yd field goal no good (Q4 3:11). It lifted LSU’s win chance by 22 points.

How LSU fans took it: “Not going for that 4th and 1 is gonna keep me up lol” r/CFB game thread

“Next weeks AP Poll: Others receiving votes: Kentucky (43)”

A Kentucky fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The jump was loud; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Kentucky fans

stein“I guess we all just found out why Stein didn’t go for the field goal earlier in the game…”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, back, ball, kicker.

7 lead changes. Too close to call on 55% of plays. The winner fell to 5%.

What it cost

LSU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 35% to 23%.

Make the playoff

LSU · lost35% → ▼23%

Kentucky · won17% → ▲25%

Win the conference

LSU · lost4% → ▼1%

Kentucky · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Kentucky 35, LSU 34

Kentucky covered +9.5 by 10.5. The total, 69, went over 50.5.

Team totals	LSU	Kentucky
Total yards	410	401
Passing	26 of 35, 316 yds	23 of 36, 246 yds
Rushing	36 for 94 yds	32 for 155 yds
First downs	26	19
Third down	7 of 13	5 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	7 for 50 yds	2 for 20 yds
Time of possession	32:30	27:30

LSU leaders

Passing Sam Leavitt 25 of 34, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dilin Jones 16 for 56 yds; Sam Leavitt 15 for 39 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Dilin Jones 7 for 84 yds; Winston Watkins 6 for 62 yds

Kentucky leaders

Passing Kenny Minchey 23 of 36, 246 yds
Rushing CJ Baxter Jr. 19 for 123 yds, 2 TD; Jovantae Barnes 3 for 14 yds
Receiving Kenny Darby 4 for 79 yds; DJ Miller 4 for 54 yds

No rain, gusts to 33 mph

58° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 16 mph from the east-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 33

A 33 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

October game-day temperatures at Kroger Field

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left7:11 p.m.

LSU 0, Kentucky 0 · Kentucky 33% to win

no rain · wind 21 mph from the east-northeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 33 · 58°

Leavitt 2-yd pass to Jones

The same game in two conditions

	Wind 15 mph or more	Lighter wind
Runs and passes	84	51
Share that were passes	48%	61%
Yards per play	5.9	6.5
Turnovers	1	0

The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.

How this is counted

Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Lexington/bluegrass airport, 5.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

LSU · 4-1

Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 11th now, up 20 spots.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 63-14 vs McNeese #212 of 668

won by 49 as a 53.5-point favorite

W 35-6 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #15 of 668

won by 29 as an 8.5-point favorite

L 24-32 @ Ole MissTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3-point favorite

W 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech #83 of 668

won by 31 as a 34.5-point favorite

W 51-10 vs ClemsonTop 25 #12 of 668

won by 41 as a 10-point favorite

Last three games

Kentucky · 4-1

Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 55th now, up 47 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 1-point win over South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 35-34 @ South Carolina #40 of 668

won by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 45-21 vs South Alabama #73 of 668

won by 24 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 31-21 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #8 of 668

won by 10 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 17-45 vs AlabamaTop 25 #20 of 668

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-13 vs Youngstown State #126 of 668

won by 32 as a 22.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kentucky

Wk 1Wvs Youngstown State45-13
Wk 2Lvs Alabama17-45
Wk 3Wat Texas A&M31-21
Wk 4Wvs South Alabama45-21
Wk 5Wat South Carolina35-34

LSU

Wk 1Wvs Clemson51-10
Wk 2Wvs Louisiana Tech45-14
Wk 3Lat Ole Miss24-32
Wk 4Wvs Texas A&M35-6
Wk 5Wvs McNeese63-14

Power rating by week

LSU is rated 6.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: LSU’s success rate against Kentucky, 77 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

LSU’s success rate against Kentucky’s defense
LSU offense, 95th percentile · Kentucky defense, 18th
Kentucky’s explosive plays against LSU’s defense
Kentucky offense, 16th percentile · LSU defense, 83rd
Kentucky’s passing EPA against LSU’s defense
Kentucky offense, 59th percentile · LSU defense, 99th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

LSUKentucky

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

LSU leads the series 40-17-1

58 meetings since 1949 · Kentucky won the last meeting

2021Kentucky 42-21
2014LSU 41-3
2011LSU 35-7
2007Kentucky 43-37
2006LSU 49-0

Each line is Kentucky’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky fans are in a better mood than LSU fans (58th vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with LSU favored.

LSU favored by 9.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

LSU by 9.5, on the usual path until 0:48 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 386 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Kentucky.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kentucky is worth +6.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (32-21 home, 18-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 649 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Kentucky7th2-1
LSU11th1-1

Full SEC standings

No. 25 Kentucky upsets No. 10 LSU 35-34 in overtime