Florida 52-28 Ole Miss (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Ole Miss · Florida

No. 4 Ole Miss3-128

No. 21 Florida4-052Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. · Crowd 90,683

No. 21 Florida beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28.

We had Florida favored. It won.

Next: Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17, Sat Oct 10

Next: Florida lost to Missouri 45-17, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

Is there a super targeting penalty?

Q2 3:44 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Favored the whole way: Florida never fell below 72%.

Ole Miss never had better than a 27% chance.

TargetingQ2 3:44

FinalFlorida 52-28 Ole MissFlorida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 5:21Chambliss 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-21Florida 91% → 81% (−10)
2Q3 3:45Philo 1-yd TD run, Florida leads 31-21Florida 80% → 92% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 5:21Chambliss 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-21Ole Miss 9% → 19% (+10)
2Q3 3:45Philo 1-yd TD run, Florida leads 31-21Ole Miss 20% → 8% (−12)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 9:16Fans criticize Ole Miss for going for it on fourth down with four straight runsShotgun on 4th and 1…in the first quarter…on your own 35 Dan Lanning ass decisionr/CFB game thread
Q1 6:31Florida defenders hit Ole Miss quarterback Chambliss with a knee to the ribsWow we just saw Chambliss get a 7th year of eligibility in real-time. I saw his lawyer smiling.r/CFB game threadNot much you can do there as a defender. Super unfortunate. Hope he's okay.r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:44Ole Miss Aguero ejected for targeting Abrams on Philo passIf ole miss knew how to read they’d be quite upset at these comments in herer/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q4 4:00Florida scores to lead 52-28, sparking wild celebration from fansFlorida - it's time to put your second string in. Against the number four team in the country.r/CFB game thread
Q4 2:36Coleman intercepts Chambliss as Florida fans declare the Gators are backI’m sorry we had to do it to you Chambliss, bc I like ya kid, but it had to be doner/CFB game thread

Florida’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Florida -4), at 74% for Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Florida or Ole Miss flair (3,556 and 989); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Kickoff came 21 minutes late. No thunder was reported at Gainesville Rgnl airport (5.2 miles away) around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Florida scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Ole Miss on 5 of its 12.

Florida’s drives are teal, Ole Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Ole Miss’s side

Ole Miss’s best moment: Chambliss 10-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-21 (Q3 5:21). It lifted Ole Miss’s win chance by 10 points.

How Ole Miss fans took it: “Hard to watch but congrats to Florida. Happy for yall” r/CFB game thread

“Our defense may be a wet paper towel, but at least Ole Miss defense is wet one-ply toilet paper”

A Florida fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Florida fans

baugh“Baugh is probably the best back UF has had since Harvin, maybe even Taylor.”

Ole Miss fans

lindsey“Hard to with the defense. But first half offense also a reason. Wasted too many plays with Lindsey early on.”

tackle“This game is like getting death by a thousand dick slaps. TACKLE THEM. STOP TRYING TO SWIPE THEM”

tho“Not sure if sarcasm or revenge talk based on your flares 🤣 Go dawgs tho!”

end zone“Should have taken 3 shots at the end zone when we got that far up. What are we doing?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, run, call.

What it cost

Ole Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 44% to 36%.

Make the playoff

Ole Miss · lost44% → ▼36%

Florida · won52% → ▲59%

Win the conference

Ole Miss · lost6% → ▼3%

Florida · won8% → ▲10%

Win the title

Ole Miss · lost3% → ▼2%

Florida · won4% → 4%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Florida 52, Ole Miss 28

Florida covered −4 by 20. The total, 80, went over 58.5.

Team totals	Ole Miss	Florida
Total yards	426	498
Passing	25 of 34, 298 yds	16 of 23, 196 yds
Rushing	27 for 128 yds	53 for 302 yds
First downs	25	27
Third down	4 of 11	6 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 2	0 of 1
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	8 for 69 yds	8 for 92 yds
Time of possession	23:01	36:59

Ole Miss leaders

Passing Trinidad Chambliss 25 of 34, 298 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Trinidad Chambliss 7 for 44 yds, 2 TD; Makhi Frazier 8 for 42 yds
Receiving Deuce Alexander 7 for 134 yds, 1 TD; Caleb Odom 5 for 47 yds

Florida leaders

Passing Aaron Philo 16 of 23, 196 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Jadan Baugh 29 for 142 yds, 3 TD; Duke Clark 12 for 126 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Eric Singleton Jr. 1 for 38 yds; Luke Harpring 2 for 34 yds

Kickoff came 21 minutes late

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north, gusts to 14

No thunder was reported at Gainesville Rgnl airport (5.2 miles away) around the delay.

September game-day temperatures at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:44 left3:51 p.m.

Ole Miss 0, Florida 0 · Florida 74% to win

no rain · wind 6 mph from the north-northwest · 82°

Baugh 12-yd run

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Gainesville Rgnl airport, 5.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Ole Miss · 3-0

Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 14th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 8-point win over LSU as a 3-point underdog.

W 32-24 vs LSUTop 25 #20 of 668

won by 8 as a 3-point underdog

W 41-9 vs Charlotte #162 of 668

won by 32 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 41-38 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #58 of 668

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Last three games

Florida · 3-0

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 17th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 44-39 @ Auburn #60 of 668

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Week by week

Florida

Wk 1Wvs Florida Atlantic66-21
Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3
Wk 3Wat Auburn44-39

Ole Miss

Wk 1Wvs Louisville41-38
Wk 2Wvs Charlotte41-9
Wk 3Wvs LSU32-24

Power rating by week

Ole Miss is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ole Miss’s passing EPA against Florida, 68 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Ole Miss’s passing EPA against Florida’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 86th percentile · Florida defense, 18th
Ole Miss’s success rate against Florida’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 97th percentile · Florida defense, 34th
Ole Miss’s explosive plays against Florida’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 24th percentile · Florida defense, 53rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Ole MissFlorida

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 13-13-1

27 meetings since 1926 · Ole Miss won the last meeting

2025Ole Miss 34-24
2024Florida 24-17
2020Florida 51-35
2015Florida 38-10
2008Ole Miss 31-30

Each line is Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (62nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Florida favored by 4 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Florida by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Florida.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 81° at kickoff.

Ole Miss at Florida · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville

81°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
83weather score, Mixed
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Ben Hill Griffin Stadium that day, a 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 83 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 90, Comfortable
12:45 pm: 86, Mixed
2 pm: 83, Mixed
3:30 pm: 83, Mixed (this game)
4 pm: 85, Mixed
5 pm: 95, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Florida is worth +5.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.

70% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (31-13 home, 17-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 532 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Florida 24, Ole Miss 17Nov 23, 2024

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Florida3rd1-0
Ole Miss5th1-0

Full SEC standings

No. 21 Florida upsets No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28